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Subscribe to RSSAmericans, take solace: While your chances of landing a job these days might not be great, you’re also less likely to be murdered, or robbed or to have your car stolen.
The rate of major crimes in the U.S. continues to drop – even during the recent recession and its aftermath – and crime experts aren’t sure why.
"I am surprised by the overall decline in both violent and property crime during and since the recent recession. I’ve studied crime trends in relation to economic conditions for some time, and the 2008-09 recession is the first time since WW II that crime rates have not risen during a substantial downturn in the economy,” says Richard Rosenfeld, a professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of Missouri-St. Louis and past president of the American Society of Criminology.
“What’s pushing it down is the mystery meat in the recipe of recent years,” says Franklin Zimring, a criminologist and UC Berkeley law professor who has written several books on crime-related topics.
According to recently released FBI crime statistics, the number of violent crimes -- murder and non-negligent homicide, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault -- reported in the first six months of 2011 declined 6.4 percent compared with the first six months of 2010. The number of property crimes (burglary, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft) decreased 3.7 percent for the same time frame.
The report is based on information from more than 12,500 law enforcement agencies and shows the continuation of a downward trend in crime that began in 2008.
It’s also part of a broader, longer-term trend: Between 1991 and 2010, the homicide rate fell 51 percent and property crimes dropped 64 percent. Crime rates decreased significantly during the 1990s before flattening out at the start of the new century.
The statistical trend is puzzling and not easily explained.
More offenders were being put behind bars and the U.S. economy boomed in the 1990s, so maybe that had something to do with the decline, Zimring notes. But then, how do you explain the decline in the past three or so years, when incarceration rates have flattened out and the economy has gone to hell?
“By both the left- and right-wing leading indicators we should be in a lot of trouble – except (we’re) not,” Zimring says. “Everything we thought we knew are deeply challenged by events by the last three years.”
Rosenfeld thinks smarter policing has contributed in many places (including New York and Los Angeles). But he says it cannot explain the entire decline, since in most places policing is much the same as it was 10 years ago.
And tougher sentencing isn’t the answer either, since national imprisonment rates are also on the decline, albeit modestly.
“One overlooked economic factor is inflation, or rather the very low levels of inflation during the past few years,” Rosenfeld wrote in an email to msnbc.com. “High rates of inflation are connected with high crime rates, so when inflation drops we should expect corresponding declines in crime, in the first instance property crime.”
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It's amazing that these learned people will go so far as to say "We can't figure it out" instead of admitting to gun laws allowing the honest Americans to protect themselves actually deter crime.
Amen to the gun theory! Plus.....
This just goes to show how stupid our sheltered collegiate Americans really are. Especially college professors! Those idiots believe they can figure out how the real world works by using "data". The problem is data has to be evaluated by intellegent people who have not grown up in collegiate bubble's. I'm basically saying you cannot evaluate data if you are a nerd. You have to be educated and live a non sheltered life to come up with real life answers. Ok, here is the perplexing answere for all the professors and college androids who cant figure out why crime is going down. Ready, its really simple, are there not camera's high in the air sitting on street poles in every medium sized city on up? Are there not rumors of wire taping? Hello!! Hello! Mcfly! How is someone going to get away with a crime when after the criminal is done doing the deed he drives home or to a Friends house, right? Well those camera's are placed strategically so when you are out of site of one camera there is another that will pick you up where the other left off. The common man knows this and especially the man on the street. College bubble idiots! They are worthless outside of their college campuses. And the same goes for college graduates. After all they have to be stupid too because only wealthy families can afford to send their kids to college and wealthy children are sheltered tools that grew up in bubbles.
sheltered little college bubble's.
It is a proven fact that the states with "Right to Carry" laws and "Castle Doctrines" have steadily seen a decrease in crime for the last decade. When Academia learns to admit this we will see bigger gains in crime decreases. The police have good intentions but they can't be every where and with the lower budgets facing law enforcement today they are spread to thin. But criminals know that with RTC they are taking a chance when they break in and try to rob people today today anybody can be armed and able to resist.
I find it funny that the experts are baffled at the drop crime rates that started in 2008. Dumbies !!! They went to "War"
If I were a crimminal, With more "Armed Citizens" on the streets, I'd be real careful about what I did, cause ya'might just get your head blown off......
Highly educated researchers cannot understand why crime has declined---educated in what? They are academics and really never have a clue what goes on in the real world. These are the people who "teach" in our universities!! These progressives have ZERO common sense---we the people know how to reduce crime--- we are self dependant--we own guns and we know how and when to use them. It's really quite simple--bad guys are cowards--they don't prey on people who can hurt them.
This probably a part time job for the researchers. The rest of the time they work for Al Gore on climate research.
NO MONEY = NO BOOZE OR DRUGS = LESS CRIME.
I personally thank Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Jan Brewer for the drop in crime rate. As for the alleged increased in jobs, I also thank Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Jan Brewer for the same. When the illegals leave, the Americans can live without being shot while driving down the street and can go back to work since their job is not taken by an illegal immigrant. Flows hand in hand.
Totally due to abortion. It's the only thing that makes sense. We've certainly not gotten more polite and civil as a society.
The GOP is schizophrenic when it comes to social policies and economic policies. Obviously they think welfare should be avoided at all costs, but when the 17 year old poor girl whose family is already living on assistance gets pregnant they want to force her to have the baby??
So what you are saying is that when a society lets women kill their babies crime drops? Really?
kjunme, if there are fewer births in a demographic proven to be a problem, it is logical that the problem would be lessened in the future. Would you prefer the birth of many unwanted , destined to be underpriviledged, children that will perpetuate crime just to survive ? Sad but true. :(
yes, kjunme, that's what i'm saying. think about it. pacem made my point for me.
The GOP wants it both ways. No abortions, but they don't want to pay for poor people. The party is nuts, period.
No no no no, Rack n Sack who has leaches for brains. Stop thinking like a mooch. The GOP want you to start showing and teaching personal responsiblity. You cant learn personal responsibility if your always guarnteed a free ride from our government. Which I have to pay for and everyone else who are responsible.
The GOP teaching me personal responsibility??!!?? Really?
Is your version of 'personal responsibility' go like this? "Everything for me, and f**k everybody else in society".
The reason for the drop in crime is simple, common, in-your-face, and everywhere: it's the cameras!They are ubiquitous, they are invisible, they are in the hands of everyone - cellphones, entrance/light post/surveillance cameras of all types, and again - they are everywhere! The criminals have numerous excellent chances of getting caught while at it or just before or after the deed
But the "experts" - especially in these politicized areas - will never be bothered by facts, especially obvious ones - as this one is. As for the commenters here and anywhere this subject is raised, not one ever seeing this obvious FACT - no one ever got rich underestimating the stupidity of the American people.
Really? I think 7-11 stores have had them for over 20 years and people still rob them all the time.
Makes since to me.
Hold on a sec while I pull out my Camera to defend myself with. I know how frightened you are of having your picture taken. Its not like you ever saw CSI, NCSI, Special Victims unit, Law and Order, Criminal minds, or any of the other hundreds of police shows on tv so you wouldn't have enough brains to be able to do a simple thing like cover your face.
By the way could you smile for me and while your at it would you mind changing your cloths because those black pants, black hooded sweat shirt, and black baseball cap covering your face makes you indistinguishable from the 90% of teenagers, youths, gang-bangers, head bangers, Goth, Emo's etc. who just happen to dress the same way.
kjunme and David noah must be a sheltered college educated android. It's not just the 7-11 camera's it's also all the street cameras. Duhhhh~! College bafoons! When the criminal drives away in his car he goes home or to a friends house and before he leaves the scene the first street camera catches him turn right or left then a second street camera picks him up and so on and so fourth. Plus lets not forget the license plates and make and model and color of the vehicle. Please, Please, college people just shut up while you are living in your parents basement cause you dont have job experience employers want. you were sold a bundle of horse @!$%# about college and you now have to lay in it. Be sure and vote for barack obuma, idiots.
Look out pocketbook, Politicians will be chasing more of your tax dollars for law enforcement since everything they've done has worked so far. And you will give it and vote for it as you believe their statistics....
Something to the effect of "a population that gives up freedom to be secure will be neither free nor secure" was once muttered by a founding individual of this "free" country.
Experts aren't baffled--only academic buffoons. The obvious answer is and has been demographic, but that is so easy that the grant-seekers can't snag gubbermint funds to study it. For those who want to know--the crime rate is a reflection of the average age of the male population. Violent crime is a young man's game--and when the median age was 27, back in the 60's crime rose precipitously despite widespread prosperity. It followed until the median age began to rise significantly--it is now in the 40's--and guess what--40 year old men on average don't go out doing violence as often as 27 year old men. Sorry to blow up the einsteins balloons, but there just isn't much of a story here. Cheers.
There's lots of reasons if the statistics are correct.
Gun Ownership, cameras, older society, poor or nonexistent reporting, and my favorite post of all...no gas for the getaway car.
Personally, I don't believe it for a minute.
Could it be that many Illegals mostly mexican have self-deported because of the lack of work? Hmmmm
I believe Nazi Germany also had a low, low crime rate.
Most likely a combination of circumstances. I do believe the proliferation of legal gun users has been a major deterrent. I also do not doubt there are other factors to take into consideration such as cell phones, video surveillance, advanced investigatory techniques etc. Whatever the reasons, hopefully this continues.
I know why, but im not going to say. People gotta eat.
The fact they arent doing the crime experts expect, doesnt mean they arent doing something. It has nothing to do with more guns, or better tech, or police work. I'll leave it at that.
Freedom , is it because you decided to finally follow the straight and narrow path of good citizenship. Were you like a one man crime wave we didn't know about ? Were all the cameras and guns cramping your style ? Please share what you know about why crime rates are down. Thanks in advance. :)
So what you are saying is, you don't have a clue?
kjunme, Freedom has postulated that the Colonel did it the Dining Room with the Candlestick. Since the Colonel can do this only once, it stands to reason that the crime rate has dropped. Brilliant work , Freedom !
Not my fault you cant put it together. Hang up the badge Fife..
Freedumb, I have put it together without your input. Because you have have no input other than some mysterious theory that you refuse to share. Not my fault you can't make your point. Put up or shut up, mate.
Its simple. Through local government/state/federal attrition and job cutting due to less tax base, less police are on the job.
More guns = less crime
Okay, here's just something to throw in the mix. Anyone read the articles about the MMA fighters taking down perpetrators? Two different incidences I know of in the last six months. Maybe crime is down because people are taking care of themselves because in this economy they can't replace it? Via self protection, whatever form it takes?
more legal gun owners = less crime. doesn't take an "expert to figure that one out". but i'm sure someone is making money off of some grant to figure out why the crime level has dropped. probably using our tax dollars to do it too.
That's interesting because where I live in far northeast we are seeing murders increasing and theft on the rise. Seeing lower skilled folks giving up and moving away and we are seeing gangs on the rise. I don't believe the experts are seeing all the data because its not being reported - rowe vs. wade or not.
The criminal deportations. Non-citizens convicted of felonies and later deported simply aren't here in the U.S. to reoffend.
BS report, anybody out there want to look at the Tampa Bay area news, 15 murders in the past 20 days in this 35 square mile area.
They did say nation wide.
The reason is obvious. 25 years ago, on-demand gun carry permits were almost unheard of. Now, more criminals are being put straight into the well-deserved graves, circumventing the "justice system" entirely. Nobody's "scratching their heads" over it. These commie-symp liberals don't want to admit total failure on the gun control non-issue. God Bless the 2nd Amendment and keep it forever!
This is a master criminal attack on the man,with no high crime statistics to hide behind the man will have to have budget cuts with layoffs and with less police on the streets the hoods of today will take what is ritefully theirs wich is whatever they want!
The kind of crimes they are talking about, are generally crimes committed by desperate people. Not always life or death desparate. But desparate enough that they are willing to commit a crime to get the money they want/need for whatever habit or need they have. Or maybe they just need food and rent. Thats why the experts expect more crime in hard times.
So crime is not down, because those people are still out there. They are still desparate. So either they are just suffering without, or they are finding what they need some other way. Im going with the latter.
If you cant figure it out from that, you never will. :p
Freedom, were you trying to say that they have figured out how to illegally get more from the government ? And when the government can't help them anymore, then they will return to a life of crime ? Is this what you are trying to say, but could not share nor verbalize ? Close, or do you care to clarify further ? I am not trying to be offensive here, just want to understand where you are coming from. Cheers.