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Subscribe to RSSAmericans, take solace: While your chances of landing a job these days might not be great, you’re also less likely to be murdered, or robbed or to have your car stolen.
The rate of major crimes in the U.S. continues to drop – even during the recent recession and its aftermath – and crime experts aren’t sure why.
"I am surprised by the overall decline in both violent and property crime during and since the recent recession. I’ve studied crime trends in relation to economic conditions for some time, and the 2008-09 recession is the first time since WW II that crime rates have not risen during a substantial downturn in the economy,” says Richard Rosenfeld, a professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of Missouri-St. Louis and past president of the American Society of Criminology.
“What’s pushing it down is the mystery meat in the recipe of recent years,” says Franklin Zimring, a criminologist and UC Berkeley law professor who has written several books on crime-related topics.
According to recently released FBI crime statistics, the number of violent crimes -- murder and non-negligent homicide, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault -- reported in the first six months of 2011 declined 6.4 percent compared with the first six months of 2010. The number of property crimes (burglary, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft) decreased 3.7 percent for the same time frame.
The report is based on information from more than 12,500 law enforcement agencies and shows the continuation of a downward trend in crime that began in 2008.
It’s also part of a broader, longer-term trend: Between 1991 and 2010, the homicide rate fell 51 percent and property crimes dropped 64 percent. Crime rates decreased significantly during the 1990s before flattening out at the start of the new century.
The statistical trend is puzzling and not easily explained.
More offenders were being put behind bars and the U.S. economy boomed in the 1990s, so maybe that had something to do with the decline, Zimring notes. But then, how do you explain the decline in the past three or so years, when incarceration rates have flattened out and the economy has gone to hell?
“By both the left- and right-wing leading indicators we should be in a lot of trouble – except (we’re) not,” Zimring says. “Everything we thought we knew are deeply challenged by events by the last three years.”
Rosenfeld thinks smarter policing has contributed in many places (including New York and Los Angeles). But he says it cannot explain the entire decline, since in most places policing is much the same as it was 10 years ago.
And tougher sentencing isn’t the answer either, since national imprisonment rates are also on the decline, albeit modestly.
“One overlooked economic factor is inflation, or rather the very low levels of inflation during the past few years,” Rosenfeld wrote in an email to msnbc.com. “High rates of inflation are connected with high crime rates, so when inflation drops we should expect corresponding declines in crime, in the first instance property crime.”
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The press is strange. For example, their outright refusal to even recognize that Ron Paul exists. He is not my guy by the way, but the press looks stupid in ignoring him.
As many already have stated, there seems to be a direct correlation between the drop in crime and the proliferation of CCW. But how can control freaks like Bloomberg, Kelly, Stratton and the like be so demonstrably, empirically wrong? And at the top of their voices, too?
yes but WAll Street and Bank Fraud crime are at all time highs- all the crroks became brokers and traders!!!
Master Plan? The hoods are primarily there for two reasons today - mental health problems and drug abuse. It's not where most folks ever wanted to be born or where they wanted to stay their whole lives. Stop idolizing that lifestyle because many decent working poor would give a left leg to get out of that life. Ohh brother.
Joao, I see where you are coming from. I, myself, grew up on welfare, with 5 other siblings. In middle school, we had gang fights with chains and the occasional knife. I'm 47, so I'm sure it's worse now than it was then. High school was all about drugs (some in middle school, too) and the one thing I saw the most? No one escaped it because they didn't know how to. Giving to the poor is admirable, whatever form it takes, but educating them and their children makes much MORE of a difference, and I'm not just talking about book learning, but LIFE learning that there is something better out there. I've been lucky and I know many who weren't.
There are so many on welfare that pays much higher than crime can see why chime is down. Better yet you don't have to get off your dead ass to make an income
This one is a no brainer. For the first time, 48 states now allow concealed carry of handguns.
It's much more risky to commit crime when the victim is likely to be armed and can defend himself.
Hit the nail on the head Rick!
Most people on welfare are single moms, and they cannot stay on the system their whole lives - that would be called disability! This is not the welfare of yesteryear. Too many folks watching old movies.
Joao you want to bet they can't
Two words. Concealed carry.
Easy. The rise of security cameras everywhere, including roadways. Too hard to get away without being spotted now.
No one seems to see the relationship between "Right to carry laws", i.e. relaxation of concealed weapon laws in most states. If you realize that there is the possibility of getting your ass shot off by someone, crime don't seem quiet as appealing. I have a concealed weapon permit and think every state should allow it. Crime would drop even more!!
Let's just blame this on Obama too., oh my bad, this is something positive.LOL.
Believe it or not, even this story is proof that Obama is a "failure" Check out comment #7 by one of the moronic Obama haters. It even got 10 ups!
Obama and Holder are all for guns for Mexico.not so much here,talk about calling others morons.
Who? How? Ha!
It's because we can carry guns. It keeps criminals somewhat honest and they don't take chances like they used to.
Abortion leads to less crime?....what the heck is that all about?..I have never heard of anything so crazy.Abortion itself is a violent crime...babies torn limb to limb and sucked out of the womb.
A beach bum who wants to force women to have babies?? Shouldn't you be sitting bolt upright in a church wearing a starched shirt? What would your religious nutcase pals think if they knew you were laying half-naked on a beach? Sinner!!
lol has nothing to do with more guns, most criminals have guns too. Kind of a necessity for the job.
There lots of money to be made doing illegal stuff, besides stealing. Theft is no longer the easy crime it once was, thats true. Guns are certainly part of that trend. But it doesnt mean that criminals arent still out there. They have just changed M.O.
What's your new M.O. ,mate ?
What gives? People are so poor right now that they have nothing to steal.
One reason that crime is fallen is that very few things are worthwhile stealing. Jewelry is out of style. No one wears furs. No one keeps large amounts of cash on hand. Electronics are pretty cheap. Art work is hard to sell. The risk is too great, given the benefits.
The population is getting older, too.
What gives is Democrats are in the House give the poor what they need to survive and crime goes down. As we all should no that people are starting to feel some hope and are spending more money jobs are rebounding. The Sentate is doing there part as well Pre. Obama 4 more years.
So this is an excuse to legalize abortion? Don't hate me, but I think that's good enough to convince others to keep it legal. (Prepares herself for someone to reply with some angry rant..)
Not going to rant at you...I'm actually 50/50 on this issue. For me, though, I don't think anyone, especially a government entity, has the right to know what my situation is and make a decision on it for me. I'm sure there are many women who feel the same.
The number of law enforcement personnel have been cut so much they no longer respond to anything except major crimes.
So the implication is that if you're out of work, you automatically resort to violent crime? When I was unemployed, I didn't have time to rip people off -- I was too busy actually looking for another job.
why would you look for another job when Obama wants to give you unemployment until you are elligible for social security?
Looking for a job in America is like looking for WMD's in Iraq!
After 2 years of looking for work and collecting unemployment you are no longer a job seeker....you are a leach on society.
Agree with you Lydia....out of work does not mean you don't have morals. Usually, people with good morals have a support structure, someone to reach out to them, take them in until they can get back on their feet. So, the hardliners who think all people on unemployment are freeloaders are wrong, but also right in that some, and I do mean some who give the system a bad name, are freeloaders. Who do you forsake?
a couple of monthes on unemployment to get yourself back on your feet I can understand but 2 years....give me a break,
1-When Is A Crime Not A Crime? "One Never Knows, Does One....?"
2-Is It A Crime If No One Hears You Scream?
3-Minorities Are Breeding Less?
4-Vanilla 'Hoods Don't Report White-on-White Crimes?
(sarcasm) Lotsa insane comedy on this vine.
Maybe has something to do with why I have a concealed and carry permit. And could be they know nobody has anything left to steal with that idiot Obama in office
Crime dosen't pay and neither does working any more... LOL! Criminals are too busy protesting goverment and big business... LOL! It is because congress and the president are doing such a great job the people are too happy to commit crimes... LOL!
Criminals are making more from unemployment and food stamps then they can thieving.
The drop in violent crime and murder etc is due to the lack of social interaction that people have face to face. Everyone has a cell phone. Even very poor people have access to cell phones in this day and age. The new generation doesn't connect face to face any more. If they get angry at you they unfriend you. If they don't want to deal drugs to you, they take you off the list and black ball you with their other drug dealing friends the same way. There is a much lower level of face to face emotional contact between people who do not have extended histories with each other. So there is less violent crime because they don't have the instantaneous ability to lash out at the person they are mad at.
Wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that guns have been flying off of the shelves since the second Obama was sworn in, would it?
Money and wealth does not make moral character. A person with high morals even though he is poor will not steal, while a person with no moral character even though he might be rich will steal. These liberal know it all experts have removed the moral spiritual nature of man and try to explain everything on external factors alone. Man's basic nature is corrupt and without a change of heart is prone to do evil