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A February map from the U.S Geological Survey shows the estimated range of the great Cascadia earthquake of 1700.
A massive earthquake like the one that unleashed a giant tsunami and killed nearly 16,000 people in Japan a year ago not only could happen here in the U.S., but probably will — and relatively soon in terms of seismological history.
The Tohoku earthquake was the most closely monitored in history, yielding an unprecedented breadth of data, geophysicists and seismologists say. And for residents of the Pacific Northwest, the new data should be worrisome.
"It's just like Japan, only a mirror image," said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.
The disaster in Japan occurred because of stress from the Pacific tectonic plate sliding below Japan, according to new research discussed last month at the annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Vancouver, British Columbia.
The lead researcher, John Anderson, a geophysicist at the University of Nevada-Reno, said the plates locked together, slowly pushing Japan westward.
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Ben Gutierrez and Lisa Kubota of NBC station KHNL in Honolulu contributed to this report by M. Alex Johnson of msnbc.com. Follow M. Alex Johnson on Twitter and Facebook. |
The plates released catastrophically on March 11, 2011, creating a magnitude-9.0 earthquake and tsunami waves that topped 100 feet, said Anderson, who spent most of the past year in Japan as a visiting research professor in Tokyo.
While most Americans probably think the San Andreas fault running through California poses the greatest threat of unleashing a killer mega-quake, data from the Japanese quake indicate that the distinction actually belongs to the Cascadia fault line, which runs through southern Canada, Washington and Oregon to Northern California, Anderson said at the conference.
USGS earthquake information by state
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Biggest threat zones The biggest threats of a U.S. mega-quake (generally defined as one of magnitude 7.0 or greater) lie along three fault lines: The Cascadia subduction zone stretches from northern Vancouver Island through Seattle and Portland, Ore., to Northern California, separating the Juan de Fuca and North America plates. Giant quakes are believed to occur there every 300 to 600 years; the last was Jan. 26, 1700. Recent research suggests the region could have a 37 percent chance of a magnitude-8.2 quake or greater in the next 50 years. The San Andreas transform fault runs the length of California, separating the Pacific and North American plates. The last mega-quake was in 1906 near San Francisco, but large earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or above are relatively common in historical terms, having occurred as recently as September 2004 near Parkfield. The New Madrid seismic zone stretches southwest from New Madrid, Mo. (pronounced MAD-rid), and is most active in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, where it regularly produces small- to medium-intensity temblors. Three magnitude-8.0 quakes are believed to have occurred in the region from December 1811 to February 1812; had Memphis, Tenn., existed at the time, it likely would have been destroyed. Since then, the largest earthquake was a magnitude-6.6 quake in October 1895 near Charleston, Mo. msnbc.com research/M. Alex Johnson. Sources: NASA Astrophysics Data System, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Oregon State University College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, U.S. Geological Survey. |
Like Fryer, he called the Pacific Northwest trench a "mirror image" of the Japanese trench — except potentially even more dangerous.
"In this mirror image, one can see that if the same earthquake occurred in Cascadia, the fault would rupture to a significant distance inland, since the Cascadia trench sits much closer to the coastline than the trench off the coast of Japan," Anderson said.
While some probability models predict that a Cascadia earthquake wouldn't rupture so far under the land, "if it does, the data from the Tohoku earthquake predict stronger ground motions along our West Coast than those seen in Japan," he said.
In layman's terms, what's happening is that the region "is being deformed because the plates are locked together, and the shoreline is sinking and the rest of the thing is being bent," Fryer said in an interview with NBC station KHNL of Honolulu.
Fryer said the big question is not whether a Japan-like quake will happen, but when.
A coastal Oregon town considers building a tsunami- and earthquake-proof city hall. Experts and residents debate whether the plan will work.
"Where are we here? Are we close or are we not close?" he asked. "I think the suspicion is that it could be sooner rather than later."
Anderson's research supports that conclusion.
Experts generally agree that last great Cascadia earthquake happened on Jan. 26, 1700. It generated tsunami waves that indicated that its magnitude was also about 9.0.
"Earthquakes of this size in the past may have recurred with intervals of as small as about 300 years," Anderson said at the AAAS conference last month. "So it would not be a scientific surprise if such an event were to occur in the near future. If you live in the Pacific Northwest, look at the videos of Tohoku as a reminder to be prepared."
In January, experts discussed lessons from the Japanese earthquake at a conference of the Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup.
The warnings come as the White House is proposing a 2013 budget that would cut $4.6 million from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's tsunami programs. Much of that would come from the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which funds evacuation maps, training and education efforts — important services given how deeply the Japanese quake and tsunami transformed the science of seismology.
"The Japan earthquake told us that a lot of what we understand about how earthquakes work is wrong," Fryer said. "Do we now have to go back and look at all of our evacuation maps and make sure that they're right? That's a question that's still unanswered, and that question would be answered with tsunami hazard mitigation program funds."
More on the Japan Quake-Tsunami from msnbc.com and NBC News:
- Prediction lessons from the Japan quake
- One year after Fukushima, Japanese town is frozen in time
- Japanese tsunami survivor, 79, looks ahead
- Tsunami Survivors: Struggling to live on, alone
- Japan Red Cross: Whole year wasted after tsunami
- Cosmic Log: Hear the soundtrack of a super-quake
- Nuke pill frenzy fizzles in U.S. as Fukushima fades
- Photo Blog: Panoramic images, then and now
- Japan disaster snarls U.S. nuke plant plans
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Earth quakes, solar flares, tornadoes in the middle of winter. Going to be an interesting year leading up to 12-21-2012. If you believe that sort of thing.
It could happen.......NAH.
If the Maya calendar really predicts the end of the world, just have an extra drink or two on the 20th, because after that no one will care as we will all be gone. If the world doesn't end, business as usual. So why worry about the end?
Im opening my Christmas presents on the 20th!
Hey, I think there is no reason behind the calendar ending dec 21 2012. That is just the date the myans chose to end the count. Nothing more, but just in case, I am going to have that extra drink on the 20th!
The guy chiseling out the calendar got tired and then went off and went on a peyote binge, forgot what he was doing before he nodded off
Could've, should've, would've...
If it happens, it happens, but until it happens, we will never know.
Y2K scare said the world was going to come to an end and we all should be prepared. If it's coming to an end, why are people wasting time even preparing in the first place.
jussayin-
Happy Thursday to Everyone!
Why does everyone assume that the Mayans were less ethnocentric than every other culture on Earth? Maybe the Mayan Calendar only applies to the Mayans. Their overall culture disappeared long before Columbus. The people probably assimilated into the other groups in Mesoamerica, such as the Aztecs.
Perhaps the Mayan Calendar indicates that 12/21/2012 (by the Gregorian Calendar) will be when the last of the MAYAN bloodline goes extinct.
Thank you Mr. M. Alex Johnson, msnbc.com, for stating the obvious.
I'm better informed now.
I thought ahead with this. The foundation of my home, shop and garage have 36 inch steel re-enforced casings every 6 feet. And the structures are mounted on springs to make the buildings ride out any quake right up to about a 10 Richter. Also,, I am at an elevation of 639 feet, as well as well above the river a bit over a mile away. And the mountain behind and below do not have any loose rock to be tossed. As for the buildings themselves, they are made of wood and will have loads of flexibility. As for my utilities, I am independent of all public ones. I have my own well, water storage, generate my own electricity and the works. Might have to reaim my TV and Internet satellite dishes after it's over though.
Now, what would be bad for me, is to have some of the volcanoes to go active from bsuch an event. I do have an underground bunker, but with lava flow, there would be no getting out.
The county in Oregon where I reside (Douglas) definitely needs to be washed off and terriformed. Especially all the government facilities and peoplwe working within them.
300 foot tsumai? Surf's up! Enjpoy the ride and always look on the bright side of life.
2012: the new Y2K. Caesar introduced "Leap Days (Feb. 29) in 45 BCE. There have been over 500 leap days, unaccounted for by the Mayan Calendar, which put today's date at mid July, 2013 ("2012" b.s. would have occurred about 7 months ago; mid August of last year.)
Ron9...
Good luck with all of that (not being sarcastic) but personally, I prefer to spend time and money on enjoying life in the now since we're all going to die eventually. When my time comes, I want to remember time spent with family, friends and the beauty of nature before my last breath.
Mark0 - Not if the Mayans knew Caesar was going to add leap days and accounted for it! If they knew the earth was going to end it only stands to reason they knew this as well! lol!!
Ron... you want all of the government buildings to be washed away then don't come crying to the government when the all the preparations on your home FAIL. If the earthquake happens to have Rayleigh or Love waves, which are typical for the Cascadia fault, then your preparations will do diddly-squat to protect your home. Your wish that government workers die in an earthquake is reprehensible so don't ask for my taxpayer dollars to help you when your home is destroyed. In the unlikely event that your home does survive a nisqually type quake good luck getting medical help because the roads will probably be unpassable in a 8+ Richter quake.
@Skup - Exactly what I was about to say. Technicalities... the Mayans didn't account for leap years, so in essence, the end of the world should have already occurred by the Mayan calendar. Oops, so much for the whole Armageddon theory :)
As Ron well knows, as does anyone else who lives in that area, I-5 would probably break in so many places that there would be no getting in or out. I am making the assumption Ron is somewhere in the Umpqua River valley. With the exception of the interstate, access is extremely limited, and many folks in that area know they will need to be fully self-sufficient should anything happen. Hwy 42 from the coast will be closed, not only because any coastal communities will be destroyed, but I would suspect a number of rock slides will make that route impassable to all but foot traffic. He does well to be prepared, and he won't be in the basement when the earthquake hits, and it is probable that a single story wooden structure will flex sufficiently as to ride it out with no more than moderate damage. For those of you elsewhere, that is some really pretty country. I no longer live in the area, but I did at one time.
The Myan calender didn't account for Leap years nor did it account for Daylight Savings time, So do the math everyone if we were going by the myan calender then it would already be 2013....
Yep... by Mayan Calendar the world should have ended several months ago.
It's already happened. In 1964, there was a sizable quake-tsunami that swept from Alaska all the way to Crescent City, the northernmost coastal town in California.
Ron --- you sound well prepared. You will probably die in a fall or car accident before a tsunami hits.
Y2K did NOT predict the end of the world. It was a scare that technology would not make the switch to the year 2000 from 1900s. The world wound't end if our technology infastructure failed to move forward...Then again, according to my teenage, no Internet and no digital world would be the end of us. LOL! Not!
The only thing that's scarier than prophesy is self fullfilling prophesy.
There is no way an undetermined future (as opposed to say predicting the sun will rise tomorrow) can be predicted. Tomorrow or even the next second has not yet happened.
If Nostrodamus was say a guy called "Fred", nobody would have given him the attention they have. He was simply a latter day "mystic" and made some calculated "guesses" most of which have never come to pass but mention "Noooosssttrrrooddaaammmuuuusss" and its spookiness kinds of gives it weight.
The world won't end on 12-21-12.
The Mayans didn't have leap years. So according to their calendar the world should have ended months ago.
But we're still here.
Forget the Mayan calendar. What does the eminent scientist Pat Robertson have to say about these earthquakes? After all, he said that the Indonesian tsunami was God's punishment of Muslims and that Hurricane Katrina was God's punishment of gays and the decadent life style in New Orleans. Washington just passed a marriage equality bill ..... let's ask Pat if we should be afraid.
Ron, if you wash off Douglas county, at least you have a Drain ;^) - Mazama is next door, it would be quite a sight if it erupted again, although there's probably not much magma underneath it any more.
I would like to do some bracing for my house, but the one side of the tri-level has no crawl space, I'm not sure how much work it would be to open up the walls to do that, not to mention the front of the built-in garage where there is no wall to tie to.
Like they say, there is no question that it will happen again, but 300 years is the low side of the cycle and we may be long gone before the next event.
I came back from a tour of Mayan ruins in January. According to Mayan history, there have been five previous Mayan calendars, the next would be number six. So just the calendar ending means nothing. The ending of these calendars signals a great change in earth history. The guide said it did not mean the end of times.It could be shifting of the magnetic poles, which has happened before, or something else. But we will not know until 12/22/2012
Screw that! I'm not buying any Christmas presents.
Texana Deb - I like to believe that it will be a massive change in human nature.
that maybe we'll be motivated less by money, and more by doing whats right.
or maybe im just riding an emotional high from wathing KONY2012
maybe I just feel like it's our time, WE THE PEOPLE OF THE PLANET finally can rise up and stop the injustices that are occuring. Joseph Kony is just one rotten man on this planet that needs to be stopped, and so far...no one with the power or authority or the ability has bothered to do anything.
now we can...and I hope we will.
I hope thats the change thats about to occur, that we stop seeing borders and start seeing PEOPLE.
im not talking "one world order"...im talking POWER TO THE PEOPLE, power to stop abuse, slaughter, genocide, rapes, enslavement and so on.
the power to care and the power to act.
Uh, guys? The whole thing about the Mayan Calendar is that it is not a Gregorian Calendar; in other words, it is not using revolutions of the Earth around the Sun as a marker. Rather, it uses astronomical observations. IIRC, it uses a star pattern's peregrination as the ultimate marker (I think they tied it to one of their gods, not sure which) as the marking point. It's about 25,000 years long in the cycle, once again IIRC. So, basically, it's just when the star alignment will recycle to the previous point they arbitrarily decided was "the beginning."
The translation was done using actual years, you know, the 365.25 days per year, and they calculated when those stars would appear in the same position as seen from Earth. So 12/21/12 is still accurate, because the date was calculated later.
The whole end-of-the-world thing is just another version of the Rapture end times mythology that every religion subscribes to, and cross-pollinates from religion to religion easily as religious folk and ideas are wont to do (see Christianity and Paganism for reference).
Jessica-1170252
I have wondered about that vary same thought. I was always put off by how there is always a date for our destruction but no one ever stopped to think that these dates could maybe predict a positive "golden" age for humanity and not it's destruction. Why are we all so preoccupied with our destruction that there always has to be a date for it? The world as we know it could end any day or far far in the future.
Also, the thought that the universe might see a specific day on a specific calender as a time to end humanity is laughable. Time as we measure it is a human creation. The rest of the solar system, let alone the universe has no concept of our time and thus to pull a date out of our heads for our own destruction is just plain silly.
As to the story. I am thinking that those plates will let go in our life time and I also think that we may see more activity on the east coast as well.
YAWN...we've known about this for decades along the NW Coastline.....
CUT THE BUDGET! They aren't gonna ever stop/predict a tsunami...and certainly won't be 'right there' to help in any event. Just one dept. after another trying to wiggle out of spending cuts.
Ron
You worry about the Tsunami or you worry about the Volcano, you don't worry about both because they are about 200 miles apart.
On the other hand, with the lack of work in Douglas County, it is good there is Government work to keep people employed.
Somebody has to watch the forest, or what isn't stolen by illegal loggers, would become an uncontrolled forest fire and burn your house to the ground.
If the Mayan were so intelligent, why didn't their calender end when they all died? Apparently they didn't see the future, now did they.
We all know we are in for a quake at some point here in the PNW. And a volcano will erupt in Hawai'i. And a tornado in Texas. A hurrricane in Florida. Flooding along the Mississippi Delta. Snow in Alaska. Hookers get arrested in Vegas. Beer will be made in Canada.
We know these things will happen. With the exception of the last two, these things are kind of hard to predict. Stop trying to scare everyone.
John, the Mayan people are not all dead. I met a lot of them when I went to Mexico several years ago. Also, there is a sizable community here in FL. It is their particular civilization that produced the pyramids and the famous caledar that no longer survives. Apparently they are called Maya now-they were called Mayan when I was in Mexico; that may have been a smaller subgroup of people in a larger group.
Regarding the headline: It's not if an earthquake and tsunami ever come, it's when they occur.
After a visit to southern Calif, and seeing the million dollar homes built on sandbars about ten feet above sea level, I thought it might be a good idea to have a tsunami drill. With one road leading off say the Balboa peninsula and traffic on a normal winter day quite impossible, just take a minute to imagine the chaos of every person trying desperately to get off that sandbar when the tsunami is on its way . . . We're talking millions of people trying to get to higher ground. Not little isolated fishing villages although we probably have a few of these too. The logistics of the whole idea are very frightening. And no one is talking about it much less suggesting trying an evacuation drill. The people of Japan DID have evacuation drills and tsunami awareness; something American coastal dwellers have stuck their heads in the sand (no pun intended) about.
Good to see that Wa. didn't put up all those tsunami evacuation route signs up just for @!$%#s n giggles.
eeww
If you want real beer you can find it here...in the Northwest.
Does the 1964 earthquake count in the 300 year calendar they were talking about? if so you have 252 years to get ready for the next one. Reamers want your money so they can continue to travel and see the sights where disasters have happened, and they can tell you how to survive a disaster, or you could just move to higher ground. I don't care how much money you give those people they cant change what is going to happen, you simply support their expensive hobby, they will use all the scare tactics to get more money, if you are worried about this then I advise you move! Japan had a old system in place and they ignored it they had markers built and people were not supposed to build beyond the markers those that did were the ones that became victims those that honored the markers were spared the destruction, go figure! the Fukashima power plant was also built below the markers. they new better but did it anyways, one town went through the trouble at great protest of allot of its citizens to build a wall, that town survived, and they don't mind having the controversial wall any more. go with your instincts on this one maybe people should not live right on the water.
It shouldn't. That earthquake was way up in Alaska and it is doubtful to remove any stress on the
That does make me wonder if it might have actually placed additional stress on the Cascadia fault line. That part of the plate moved, will this part play catch up? I wonder if even the experts know?
Most of the people on the Oregon coast really aren't at risk since they built their homes at higher elevations. There are some though that didn't really think things through, the ocean has already claimed some of those homes.
The towns on the other hand are often built near the water. They were established around ports, and fishing. A lot of the historical buildings are at risk.
I live about 70 miles from the Ocean on the opposite side of the Coast Range. About 50 feet from a good size river. I'm more worried and Earthquake would take out a Dam.
Yo, JOregon. Hit me up with some Mick & Jack's (I think that's how it's spelled). My former boss kept telling me about it, but he never had the decency to send me any when he went up there.
Also, I'm all for having money going to NOAA for study on this. I'm thinking that they'll be able to come up with more accurate and reliable models and measurements to take to predict earthquake occurrences, severities, and destruction as time goes by. Kinda like what they're doing now, only useful.
If you cut science funding, then don't whine when science isn't helpful.
That was just an example. Most people dont associate us with good beer. Just really expensive coffee. I like Mens Room Red. Elysian puts out some quality brew.
Harry, real beer drinkers know the Pacific Northwest is a beer drinkers paradise.
I've never had the Mens Room Red, I'll try to give it a sip some time.
Down here in Oregon I like the Deschutes Brewery. Several of theirs are special. Right now, if you can find it, a seasonal ale is out that is really special called Red Chair.
Also like Rogue Brewery, and Fullsail has a real nice set of Lagers called Session. I like the Black Lager.
A little more local to me is Ninkasi they are starting to reach out to other places. My son was able to pick some up at Fort Lewis.
No question about it if you drink beer for taste the Northwest is a gold mine.
WOW, This could be the big one that could cause the San Andreas to go and than we are in deep. Or it could be a ploy to not have Obama to could their budget in 2013. Only Time will tell. Let's hope for the best.
I need to proof read. I mean cut the budget. Sorry my bad.
Thanks for catching the typo, so many people type and don't read.
Of course there could be an earthquake along the coast. They happen quite often. It doesn't take an NOAA expert and a multi-million budget to come to the conclusion that a big one may hit.
Is that anything like Obama asking the Isrealis to wait until after the election to attack Iran?
Lynn W.
So pleased to encounter someone who attended private conversations between heads of state. Do you have any other diplomatic secrets you'd care to share?
Lynn - or is that like republicans urging Isreal to attack Iran, to force Obama to "do something" thereby making him look bad no matter what he chooses?
Most people in america DO NOT WANT TO GO TO WAR WITH IRAN - PERIOD
not today, not tomorrow not in 2013...
I cant help but to think that Isreal is about to do something incredibly stupid for political reasons, that have more to do with American leadership, than have to do with protecting their people from "possible threats"
And when Isreali's die as a result of their leaders actions, im certain it'll be spun back onto us somehow...because ya know, WE are the ones chomping at the bit for another pointless war #end sarcasm
Ummm, Jessica - I hate to be the first to tell you this. Most American's don't want to go to war - period. That doesn't mean that it should be completely avoided at all costs.
I certainly don't want to go to war since it causes Earthquakes and Tsunamis. That was the connection wasn't it?
Ironic that this becomes news when funding is to be eliminated.
Agreed. Yet people will use the argument "what do scientists have to gain" when criticizing those that do not buy into everything we are being fed about "climate change" or "global warming".
mikey221-3551840,
This study becomes news now because Japan suffered a devastating earthquake about a year ago, and the scientists who study such things are just now reporting the results of their studies based on analyses of the data that they gathered from the Japan earthquake.
All the world is not one vast conspiracy perpetrated by conspirators hiding behind every tree and under every rock, no matter how often the conspiracy theorists assert otherwise.
Lune
Corrrect, Lune - it can take a long time to get data collected and assimilated into a readable report. The Cascadia Fault has been under study for a long time, the Japan quake added new data that is worth considering. Let's not make this one political. I love the Oregon and Washington coasts, and inland into the Coastal and Cascade mountain ranges, but a major earthquake and tsunami are going to transform the region. the road system is such that many people living along the coast are not going to escape. I lived in southern Oregon for many years, and to get to the coast, I had to drop down into California and drive back up, or go north for some distance, then turn toward the coast. I would suspect that a Cascadia break is going to kill many more people than the Japan quake last year. There just won't be a nuclear component to it.
Jon-2149156,
I lived a decade in Seattle and spent much time camping and hiking the coastal areas of Washington and Oregon, to a less extent northern California. I agree with you that a quake equal to or (likely) greater than the Tohoku earthquake will kill tens of thousands of people in the Seattle area alone. Thousands more will perish in the aftermath, especially if mitigation plans are allowed to fall into obsolescence.
As a chilling side note, detailed studies by geologists (the folks who mikey221-3551840 think have nothing better to do than launch massive government-funding conspiracies) show a correlative connection between the southern Cascadia subduction zone and the San Andreas fault. A major quake along the San Andreas fault will likely co-occur with a major quake in the Cascadia subduction zone.
The tectonics are restless tonight.
Lune
Its not really news, it's been known for quite a while for those that are paying attention. There is a documentary on the Cascadia subduction zone that is shown now and then on the natgeo channel.
Jon
The reason you had to take those routes was because of the MOUNTAINS between Medford and points North and the Coastal communities. Even driving from one coastal community to another requires going over some pretty high points ALL above the reach of any Tsunami. Every coastal community has Tsunami Routes and people are very aware of how to get to the highest spots.
On the other hand there is no way I would live on the Longbeach Peninsula north of Astoria. One road in and the Tsunami route takes you to a pimple sized hill.
highland58,
You don't make clear what "it" is that has been known for quite a while. If you mean that we've known for a while that a subduction zone exists between the North American and Juan de Fuca plates, you're correct. If you mean that watching National Geographic reruns will keep us abreast of our steadily increasing knowledge of the geophysical processes at work in the subduction zone, you're quite wrong. As even this pop science news fluff article points out, "The Tohoku earthquake was the most closely monitored in history, yielding an unprecedented breadth of data."
I'm quite sure that the NatGeo people haven't gotten around to updating their documentary to reflect our deeper understandings of the Cascadia subduction zone that resulted from analyses of this data.
Lune
JOregon,
You state, "Every coastal community has Tsunami Routes and people are very aware of how to get to the highest spots." A correlative conclusion from this study indicates that tsunami evacuation routes (among other mitigation plans) are likely inadequate in light of our deeper understanding of the Cascadia subduction zone and the natural disaster that it will certainly cause some day or another.
The people won't find it very handy to know the tsunami evacuation routes if those routes turn out to be impassable.
Lune
Lune
The coast range of mountains runs right up to the coast. Most people could actually stroll to high ground. There are numerous roads in all areas if that is a problem.
The Oregon coast isn't like Florida or much of California. It has a lot of high ground. For instance I mentioned Astoria, one of the larger coastal communities. It is built on high hills.
Florence Oregon would be one of the more difficult locations to evacuate and even Florence has high ground very near.
Not that it isn't a concern but it has been known about for a looong time and the infrastructure has been rebuilt to deal with the problem.
I take it you went to Brookings and probably visited Harris Beach that is a long steep drop down to that beach.
JOregon,
In the event of an earthquake and a threatened tsunami, people don't have time to stroll anywhere; it they can't hightail it out of danger PDQ, they're quakejam or tsunami sushi. As Dr. Anderson points out, analyses carried out over the past year of the Tohoku earthquake show that our earlier expectations of the unfolding of a major earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone are at least inadequate and in many cases entirely mistaken. In light of our increased understanding, we ought to thoroughly review mitigation plans to make sure that they're still the best choices. That's not such an unusual endeavor, to reconsider our plans based on new knowledge that we didn't have available when we first made our plans. To take one obvious scenario, some high ground once considered safe may cease to be high ground at all in a major Cascadia quake. People who planned to stroll to that high ground to catch the view will find themselves left low and wet instead of high and dry.
I once spent close to two days at Harris Beach on my way to the dunes at Tolowa. I don't recall much about Brookings except vaguely as a picturesque town that I walked through. On most of my travels, I most often headed inland the farther south in Oregon that I got. Not that the southern Oregon and northern California coastlines aren't spectacular: I'm sure that you know they are. I just usually couldn't resist the pull of all that vast inland forest.
Lune
Lune
1. When an earthquake strikes there is a period of time before the Tsunami actually hits. First the ocean draws back from the land.
2. Most homes along the coast are already at a higher elevation, though there are idiots that built close to the beach. Just north of the Rogue River by Gold Beach there are some very large homes that should have a bulls eye painted on them.
3. There will be loss. There will be loss in any earthquake of that magnitude.
4. The main problem is the towns. Brookings itself is pretty high above the Ocean. Just south, on the other side of the Chetco River, Harbor has an extensive waterfront community. As the name implies it was built as a harbor. It also sits at the bottom of a steep hillside. Those that are healthy can easily climb up. There are several roads leading up.
5. Most coastal communities centered around harbors. The historical buildings in these areas ARE at risk.
6. Most coastal communities are very small. Populations go up quite a bit during tourist season, but generally there are many roads, and few people.
7. I have been all over Oregon (Washington, California, Montana, Idaho, Arizona, and more). My job took me to many coastal communities. I always preferred the inland more too. The Ocean is too cold to swim in but the clean mountain lakes were always nice. Harris beach is one of the most beautiful beaches anywhere - in my opinion. Nice thing about Brookings was the weather. It could be winter everywhere else in Oregon and 80 in Brookings. Even South at Crescent City wasn't as warm, something about the currents. Not right now though I checked. Warmer in Eugene.
JOregon,
1. When an earthquake hits, the people in the range of its immediate destruction are pretty much destructed. We're not talking about the destructed people, as they will be destructed.
2. Those remaining will *not* be strolling. They will be hightailing.
3. Most coastal communities are very small and centered around harbors and will just cease to be. They just will. Mitigation plans (IF kept up to date) may offer some slim hope to the slim and fast among those communities.
4. I haven't been all over Oregon, Washington, California, Montana, Idaho, Arizona, and more. I have walked some small distances within each, but I don't get so far on foot. Blisters and all.
5. Science will prevail, because science fixes its own mistakes. That issue started this discussion, in case you forgot.
Lune
Lune
It depends. I was in the San Francisco bay area (Petaluma) when the 1998 Loma Prieta Quake hit. It was strong but damage was dependent on how far away from the epicenter you were, soil conditions, and structure design.
The Cascadia Fault line will slip with a lot of force, but it is out in the Pacific Ocean about 50 miles from land.
Not to say it won't cause structural damage, it will. It is just that there are few structures of any significant size to matter. The bridges and coastal cliffs would be at risk but many roads simply go up to high ground. In Oregon the bridges have been getting rebuilt with earthquake resistance.
Most of the people living in these areas are simply living above any Tsunami zone.
While it is possible for a wave to reach as high as 100 feet, most likely it will be smaller. Brookings sits at 118 feet elevation, most people living even higher.
Gold Beach would probably be hard hit, but even then the mountains come right down to the edge of town. Gold Beach is at 70 ft.
Many of the homes that seem to be at the most risk are vacation homes. My sister would probably lose her Cannon Beach home but they live in Portland.
Seaside Oregon is another town that would probably be hard hit. None of these towns have large population centers. Tourists are the main thing and if a quake happened during tourist season it would be tragic.
People have been taught to evacuate at the first sign of a quake. Because the fault is so far away that should give ample time for most to escape a Tsunami. Not making light of it, it is just that for Oregonians this is old news.
Nothing like a good crisis, or impending one, to drum up some funding. The "discipline" of science is ultimately no more objective than any other pursuit that costs money. Careers and livelihoods are at stake - science is seldom objective.
The government should get their priorities straight, this country needs these programs so that the human race can survive and the government just wants to kills off slowly by what ever means available and not noticed by the rest of the world as genocide. Good luck when the quake hits, and the whole Pacific Northwest falls off the globe and into the ocean.
If the human race is to survive a huge disaster, Like yellowstone blowing, we need to have people living off of the planet. Newt wanted a moon base. The idea killed his presidential campaign. I liked the idea. Mankind needs some large goals to keep us motivated. Idle hands and all.
Pacific Northwest won't fall off into the ocean. Many of us have wished the San Andreas would rupture in such a magnitude that it would submerge coastal California and eliminate LA and SF, but the Cascadia fault is offshore. Downtown Seattle, and parts of Portland could liquify, that could be interesting. A tsunami racing up the Columbia River would be fascinating to watch. Should it trigger volcanic eruptions, the most likely would be Lassen in N. Cal, Baker, and Ranier in Washington, maybe Hood in Oregon, but most of the volcanos probably are close enough to dead that a subduction break would not trigger them. What will make the human race survive is preparation by individuals, passed down generation to generation, both skills and equipment, not anything the government does. I don't care which political party is in charge, something like this will get totally screwed up if the government is involved. Most of you apartment dwellers are going to die in a disaster, you won't be able to get out into the countryside to forage when the grocery stores close, and if we catch you in our cornfields, we will simply leave your body for the coyotes.
@Jon, I always chuckle at the preppers(those with food) that make comments like yours. If you have food, and millions of armed people dont....your food will dissapear fast.
I'm not stocking up on food, I'm stocking up on ammo. It's got a longer shelf life
omni - good luck with that hunter gatherer thing.
Jon
A bulge has grown on the South Sister.....they say there is no risk of eruption......I believe St Helens had a bit of a bulge.......oops
Mount McLaughlin in southern Oregon is fairly young. There are several other potential eruption possibilities.
A bigger problem might be earthquake caused dam failure. I live within 45 feet of a river and if a dam goes so do I. If Hillscreek dam went it would take Lookout Point dam and Dexter dam Eugene would be wiped out.
On the McKenzie if Cougar dam or Blue Creek dam went they would take out Leaburg dam and Springfield would be wiped out.
We have a lot of dams in Oregon and a strong earthquake in the summer when they are full could be a real problem.
The bulge on South Sister is WAY slower than the St Helens bulge was, an inch a year compared to 5 feet per day.
No doubt about that. However it shows that the Sisters are far from dead. Belknap and Collier are also fairly young ones in the Sisters area.
Read the book " The Last days of the Late Great State of Califonia" by Putnam in 1968. Good, good book.
I did it again. Batting 0 for 0. California this time. Still it is a great book and kind of prophetic.
By Curt Gentry and Published by Putnam
That book was terrific fun!
Chicken Little wants more funding. Needs another year in Japan instead of back in Reno teaching classes.
any of you folks ever go to Seattle? The freeway there is scary as SH!T. It looks like a 7.5 would bring it down. Onto it's lower deck and onto buildings almost under it they are so close. A GIANT DEATHTRAP. And they know it. They are just rolling the dice. Not to mention the space needle. Seattle and San Diego, 2 cities I would never live in just because of Quacks.
Giant wobbly freeway built on stilts. It would surprise me if 1% made it off that freeway alive after a big quack.
I have been to Seattle, and yes, there are a lot of quacks there. I never felt a quake while there however.
I've lived along the Gulf Coast, and being threatened with hurricanes all the time and being wiped out twice is much worse than worrying about the "big one".
btw, Seattle is tearing down the Alaska Way viaduct that you were talking about and building a deep-bore tunnel instead. So, if you are in an earthquake you won't drop and be crushed to your death, (whew!) you'll just get trapped in a tunnel and drown from the tsunami after it. (Much better.)
Worst freeway I've ever seen.
And don't forget about those "Floating Bridges"....Now that's scary!!!!!!
The floating bridges would actually probably be the least of your worries in a quake. I-90 is plenty safe and after having the first 520 bridge sink into Lake Washington 40-odd years ago, they do regular inspections and repairs to make sure that won't ever happen again. Just don't get caught on one of them during a serious windstorm - that's not fun.
As for quakes, aside from the soon-to-be-defunct Viaduct which got a few cracks, I-5 (the main freeway through downtown in case you're confused on geography) was perfectly fine after the Nisqually quake in 2001. Not to say it would be just as fine after riding out a 9.0 (the 2001 quake was a 6.8), but we have earthquake building codes around here. Doesn't mean there wouldn't be damage, but Seattle certainly isn't at risk of "sliding into the ocean". The tsunami probably wouldn't even generate foot-high waves in Puget Sound.
Oh, I don't know. Define fun. if you ride rollercoasters, why not ride a floater during a windstorm? Galloping Gert was pretty cool while it lasted. Haven't been in Seattle for a few years, but a good quake is going to liquify the downtown, would be fun to be across the sound with a good telescope and watch the buildings tip over. Just ignore the fact that there are people inside, you can't save them anyway. Might as well take pictures.
PLEASE Tell me you're joking right? Wave propagation around coastlines refracts and intensifies waves. That means all of our islands, inlets, straits, sounds & harbors will AMPLIFY a Tsunami.
Google the 9.2 Good Friday Quake of 1964 in Alaska and see how far away the Tsunami hit. Look at a map of Port Alberni, BC. The Tsunami came so far up the Alberni inlet it almost submerged the town.
leroy2112,
In your post just above you claim that Dr. John Anderson is a "Chicken Little" who's just squawking about to get government funding because he "needs another year in Japan instead of back in Reno teaching classes." Then you go on to give your own dire pronouncements, more alarmist than any claims made by Dr. Anderson.
I know that Dr. Anderson is a highly regarded researcher, with a PhD in geophysics from Columbia University in New York. I know that he has been at the the Mackay School of Earth Sciences and Engineering (University of Nevada - Reno) since 1988, the director of it since 1998. I know that he's so highly regarded in his field that the University of Tokyo invited him to serve as the project professor at the university's Earthquake Research Institute, and the university extended the invitation two years *before* the devastating 2011 Tohoku earthquake.
About you, I only know (based on your posts) that you can't string English words together into coherent sentences.
I won't call you a Chicken Little. The chick deserves better.
Lune
The Alaska Way viaduct was the same design as the Cypress Structure that collapsed in the 1989 World Series (Loma Prieta) quake.
Cool! So my house in Spokane is future beach front property. And here I thought I could never afford waterfront property.
the needle can survive a 9.0 quake- the alaskan way viaduct is being replaced!
If I was in the waterfront areas of Seattle I would be more concerned with the ground being turned to liquid with the shaking.
i believe there is a scientific law that says an absolutely ridiculous comment will be posted within the first ten posts by readers on any story on the internet. minor cuts in funding for the tsunami mitigation program equals genocide??? really???
Internet = morons times the speed of light squared
But of course. We get our fun from reading moronic comments.
Slinky + Escalator = Everlasting Fun
Thus leaving more money for wars.
All of what, five minutes more war?
Give that meme a rest, 'k?
War costs Billions, even Trillions.
That would be thousands, even millions of times each million...
And a tsunami off the coast of Seattle and Portland would cost billions if not trillions. Japan was decades ahead of us when their tsunami hit and they weren't ready. To say we're not ready is a tremendous understatement.
The article implies residents need to worry about this, but the scientist is much less specific. Basically, more journalistic crap!
BOB..
QUOTE: "The article implies residents need to worry about this, but the scientist is much less specific. Basically, more journalistic crap!"
Until it happens, then you'll probably say, WHY didn't they warn people???
max out your credit cards!!, lol
Good I hope they cut the funding more. Why do we need these silly programs anyways?? What good do they do, nothing like that won't ever happen to me and besides where's my benefit? Does it make my gas cheaper or help me buy a bag of Cheetos and pay for my satellite TV subscription on my 65" TV? Hell they should put more of that money into taking care of people so we can all get a bigger check from the government and make our lives easier, except for all those minorities and single moms out there, can't they just get along on their own? Want me to pay for their contraception now, take money out of my pocket that I work hard for part time at the local Walmart. I for one am tired of all this money being wasted on those NERD programs. Not to mention now they want to cut our military back to nothing and make us vulnerable to attack from those terrorists that are waiting offshore everyday and around every corner. Boy I'll be glad for this. Maybe then they can also cut some more money from public education since obviously are kids don't learn nuthing anyways and we can send them to private schools where the parents have approved the textbooks and make sure they get the correct form of history and education so this won't happen again. They could also send some of this money to help the oil companies so we don't have pay so much at the pump and help them keep up with more of their costs so they can make a decent business profit too. Same for the banks and wall street they should leave them alone and maybe give them some of this money so they can get profitable again too and then charge us all less. Yup lots of things they could do if they weren't wasting money on these nerds. I'm calling Rush right now to make sure he knows about this and can get them to take more of this money and put it to good use.......
Dear "It is Time". My immediate hope is that u r being completely sarcastic with your flow of thoughts, words and solutions. What's scary, is that maybe you're not!
Kathryn - trust me it is sarcasm. Please don't pull a Sheldon Cooper here. What is scary is there are people who would agree with what I posted and that there are people who wouldn't pick up on that sarcasm at all, I give youthe benefit of the doubt that you are neither one, despite how one may interpret your comment above.
In the end my point is I'm tried off all the waste that goes on and the constant cutting from programs that need it. All in all is that amount much compared to the entire budget they get, probably not but still, when it comes to programs like this we get alot more out of it than many of our other government programs that are bleeding us dry. The balance is gone and needs to come back in more ways then one when it comes to government spending.
And the Moon is made of Cheese. You and you "forecasts" This will go over like a lead balloon..............
It can't happen here because it is a different kind of fault. Any Tsunamis that happen her must come from somewhere else.
And, yet, scientists say that the Pacific NW will be (and has) been hit by earthquake-generated tsunamis. What are your credentials to deny that?
bzzzt - wrong! The cascadia subduction zone is very similar to the subduction zones that caused the Japan and Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunamis, also the Chile earthquake. The Pacific Ocean has a "ring of fire" around the entire ocean that is directly related to these subduction zones. The tectonic plates ride up over the neighboring plates, causing volcanos, earthquakes, and tsunamis.
Big Bear = Fail
Hai.
Sufficient post.
Prayers to those who's suffered minor/major casualities as well as their families, due to the incident a while back.
Hoping only for the best to everyone around areas where similar incidences might occur in the nearby future, you'll need it.
"This is all Romney's fault," LOL. That's obviously the truth, eh?
Bye.
The sky is falling, the sky is falling. We might have an earthquake, we might have a hurricane, we might have a tsunami or something else. There is only one thing left to do, RAISE THE PRICE OF GASOLINE. The price of oil has increased because of what MIGHT happen. Truth is, NOTHING HAS HAPPENED. Stop this madness, stop the few getting rich of the backs of United States citizens which ultimately affects our children. MR PRESIDENT, WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO START ACTING LIKE A PRESIDENT AND PUT A STOP THESE INCREASES. Stop people from buying anymore oil from outside sources until we absolutely need to. See if that doesn't lower the prices.
1) more than 50% of the oil produced in the US is exported
2) the president does not control the price of gas, market speculators do
3) republicans want a free market, that results in oil speculators driving up the price - market regulation might have a chance of controlling that, but that would be govt meddling
4) this has nothing to do with earhquakes, which have been happening for billions of years
deweydan,
We *have* had earthquakes; we *have* had hurricanes; we *have* had tsunamis. Or are you one of those who thinks that natural disasters don't happen, that they're staged on vast sound stages in Hollywood as part of a vast governmental/nonprofit conspiracy to gauge more money from the poor taxpayers and donors?
The price of oil increased because of Middle East unrest (especially the unrest centered on Iran and Syria), then it increased much more because hordes of small investors saw the price increasing and jumped into the futures market. I *do* so wish you conspiracy theorists would take some courses in creative writing.
Lune
A projected budget cut of 4.6 million out of a budget request from NOAA of 5.1 billion would affect their function. Puhleeeze. That would be like me getting a paycut of a nickle an hour an saying i couldn't pay my mortgage bec ause of it.
Mayan calendar? or "Satanic Garbage"
The Scriptures tell us that "There will be a falling away" of Christian believers before the end, possibly those that are on the fence, teetering either way. There will be strong delusion, so strong that if it was possible, the very Elect of God would be deceived. This may be the reason for the falling away.
There will be a world System, that seems to mend the world together in "false peace" yet will later bring about destruction to all who will not take a mark "666" this is the number of man, remember 7 is the number perfection. Those that love God will not take this mark, but many will die for not doing this, even if you live, without this mark you will not be able to buy or sell.?
Many "Religious groups may be joined as one, much like the "Unitarian Religion", this could be the "Abomination that makes desolate" because only Christ Jesus sacrifice, can save sinners, no other Religion can do this, no other sacrifice can do this.
Many more terrible things will take place, such as Earthquakes, wars that circle the world, famine world wide, pestilence world wide, and a third of the world destroyed by fire.
Please world, "be prepared", Jesus Christ is Coming back, possibly very soon.
"God so loves the world that He gave His only begotten Son, so that whoever would believe in Him will have everlasting life. John 3:16
Receive God's, Free gift of salvation, by His Son Jesus Christ, ask Him forgiveness of your sins. Now invite Him in to your life as your Lord and Saviour.
For much of the information I have shared, read the book of Revelations within your Bibles.
His Servant
This is an article about science. Fairy-tales are 2 doors to the left. Thank you.
Argues...
You will not think "fairy-tales", when you stand before your Maker.
Science is a study, of God's creation.
Sorry. My "makers" are in NY. Funny how the religious can claim and deny science in the same breath.
Want proof?
Religion denies the Big Bang theory...."must be intelligent design". Who/what created your god?
Let us hear your holy spin on that.
Religion does not deny the Big Bang Theory - on the contrary, the creation account of Genesis is perfectly in-step with it. "In the beginning, God created the heavens and the Earth" - sounds about right, stars, galaxies, etc. before the formation of planets. Since the Big Bang was the supposed "beginning" there's no problem with that either. If anything I'd say that the Big Bang theory lends credence to creationism by asserting that there WAS a "beginning".
Nobody ever said that intelligent design couldn't go "boom".
As far as "who created God" - Scripture states that God is the only uncreated one. However, I know full well that atheists reject any use of scripture in religious debate, so instead I will turn to your precious science...
What are some of the theories of the universe floating around right now? M-theory? The multiverse? Scientists have no problem thinking of dimensions beyond those we sensorily perceive. It has even been suggested that in order for the multiverse theory (which Stephen Hawking clings to as his Theory of Everything) to work, there would have to be some sort of all-powerful unknown force behind it to maintain order between universes and keep the "structure" of the multiverse intact. Sound familiar? It truly isn't that big of an intellectual leap to believe that either the multiverse has always existed (since our universe obviously has a beginning - Big Bang Theory, and it's expanding) or God has always existed. If we put aside all dogma for a moment and consider the question of God from a cosmic standpoint...the conclusion that there is an all powerful Creator who exists in some dimension outside our own is just as plausible as a supposed multiverse with multiple dimensions. Both are equally untestable, however there are many different types of holes that can be poked in the mathematical and theoretical constructs of the multiverse theory (which in actuality, is a rather loose collection of postulations rather than a firmly structured "theory). For that (and for other reasons), I choose to believe that God exists.
As an additional point, if God exists outside our perceivable dimensions, then He exists outside of time and is not bound by it. Atheists are far worse than religious people at putting human constraints such as time, place, cause, and effect on God. I as a Christian and as a scientist believe that God is bigger than any constraints we attempt to place on him, so big in fact that He truly is beyond comprehension. And THAT is perfectly in line with the Bible.
not a scientist, a lawyer. I think within the confines of legal reasoning and constraints, and I, too, am a Christian. I take stated evidence, and find that I must admit the truth of the resurrection of Jesus Christ, an event witnessed by many, denied only by those who were also unable to produce a body when they knew where the grave was, because it was in their own personal best interests to deny. Then there are those in that first generation who died when, even under torture, refused to recant. Why die for a lie? Sorry. Too much evidence in favor. Some of those who believe are very emotional about it, as are some who refuse to believe. Why did God create a world with tectonic plates, volcanoes, stormy weather, etc? I don't know. His reasoning is not comprehensible to the limited human mind. I don't understand all of it, but I accept what I do not understand because it is inseparable from that small portion I do understand. I cannot know all, I will not deny what I do not know, simply because I do not know. God does not speak to me, that I am at all aware of. He does not see fit to explain it to me. But no atheist yet has offered any proof that God does not exist, nor did any Jewish or Roman leader offer proof that Jesus did not rise from the dead. They merely ordered His followers not to talk about Him, and when they continued, chose to torture and kill them.
All those answers depend on believing in an intangible, unprovable in the first place to make them work. Science can and does admit, "we don't know for sure, but here's the current best guess." Whereas, religion says, "you cannot prove it isn't true, so it must be true".
I just wish I could live long enough to see these current day myths go the same way as all the religions the past have, and become "myths". Any religion today, has as much claim to being the truth (and the same amount of proof) as any Greek, Roman, Egyptian, Norse, Sumerian, etc... have ever had.
Where science would say "there is no proof that minotaurs ever existed", religion would say, "there are no minotaurs so that proves that Theseus killed one".
It's all part of human evolution, and all the denying in the world will never change that.
Well, Argues, how about this one: I've been told that the multiverse must exist simply because it can. Because every type of universe can exist according to mathematical formulas, then it is likely that it does. How's that for scientific evidence? Does that sound better to you than religious dogma? Or do you have better evidence for the multiverse? I think we both know that no one has yet found definitive evidence yet.
Suppose someone does find evidence for the multiverse? Do you know for sure that there is no multi-universe being that could be called a god? Does anyone know for sure that there is no being that can't interject itself into our universe as a god if there may be other universes. Scientists openly discuss the multiverse and various dimensions beyond those that we can perceive. How do we know that there is not a being or beings that can't travel between universes and/or dimensions especially if we have not even observed the multiverse or these dimensions? I'm talking about things that could be observable by science at some point.
All of YOUR denying cannot change the fact that some scientists believe things that haven't been proven yet like the multiverse and string theory for all the mathematical formulas that provide evidence. Evidence is not yet proof. Believers in religion don't often claim to have science behind them-they admit they are operating on faith-scientists, on the other hand, do claim to work by evidence. What does it mean if they believe in things that aren't yet proven?
If I have a bowl of water and put a drop of oil on top of it, it spreads out upon the water. Now if the water was an example of the Space and the oil is the universe, where does the space outside the universe end? and if it has an ending, what is beyond the Bowl of space? If you say it is infinite, where does infinity end?
The question of where did God begin? will be answered when we know where infinity begins and ends, When you do find it, you will be looking into the face of God.
God said He is "the Alpha and the Omega, the Beginning and the Ending" Revelations
Another term God uses for His name is the "I AM" He is what he is, "the Almighty".
His Servant
Earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis, asteroids, comets, global pandemics, solar shutdown, global warming, global cooling, super volcanoes, economic meltdown, nuclear meltdown, vampires, werewolves, space debris, boogymen, serial killers, cereal killers, must find shelter, must find shelter, must find shelter!
sighber
It's your life. Say what you will.
Ed,
Get a clue, just trying to lighten the mood here a little. I live in the PNW, I worked for weeks cleaning up after Mt. St. Helens erupted in 1980. I understand this is a serious issue and am concerned since I have loved ones who live in the Seattle, Vancouver Washington, Eugene Oregon areas. I also have many cherished memories of time spent on Vancouver Island and up and down the Washington, Oregon, and California coasts. Isn't being sanctimonious a sin since it connotes judging others?
Or you can steal a quote from Monty Python....
Run away, Run away
In the same intent as your first comment; sometimes you just gotta laugh after all you can't escape what might be inevitable or not
Good one, Sighber.....hard to believe all the nonsense going around these days...people are really gullible...got to hand it to PT Barnum...the guy had it all figured out. ;)
sighber, you forgot to include zombies on that list.
Except the actual coast line of the NW is virtually unpopulated. A tsunami would cause very little damage to habitation. The earthquake itself might, but you would have to go farther inland and away from the epicenter.
Spec,
Mostly unpopulated? Ever hear of Seattle, Tacoma, Vancouver British Columbia, Victoria BC, Nanaimo, Ocean Shores, Vancouver Washington, Portland Oregon, Cannon Beach, Seaside, Florence, Tillamook, Newport, and on and on, I'm sure the people who live in these beautiful communities would take issue with your ridiculous post. A major earthquake and the ensuing tsunami would be devastating to these communities, communities where millions of people live.
Seattle is water, since the ocean and puget sound are one body of water, Tacoma, Olympia, Aberdeen, Port Angeles, Victoria, Vancover, Portland Oregon, all of these would be flooded. A lot of Seattle is built on a hill, but a huge nomber of homes are in the lower elevation surrounding area.
Its Japan that had only a few living in the affected zone.
Not including Puget Sound (and a tsunami through the Strait would likely dissipate a bit before hitting Seattle), if you look just at the ocean coast we've got
Aberdeen, Hoquiam, South Bend, Ocean Shores, Long Beach, Astoria, Seaside, Cannon Beach, Tillamook, and (once you get into Southern Oregon and Northern California) a goodly portion of Highway 101. All of which are sea level and would be completely devastated. Along the strait, Victoria BC (as in, the capital of British Columbia), Port Angeles, the west half of Whidbey Island and the San Juans would also be directly hit.
Unpopulated? Go back to geography class and learn that there IS life west of the Mississippi.
Come on guys!
Portland, Oregon is a long ways (almost 100 river miles) from the ocean. Do a MapQuest from Portland to Astoria and you'll see the route. Not that there won't be damage in Portland, but not from a tsunami.
'Mostily unpopulated'! There are lots of smaller communities on the Oregon & Washington coastline that would be seriously affected by a tsunami, and as was the experience in Japan, the first waves could come ashore in as little as 15 minutes. If you are on the coast, head for higher ground (well above the 'you are safe' signs) immediately (and don't look behind you....).
Ok, to the people did not pay attention to what I said (I live in Seattle BTW) the COASTLINE is virtually unpopulated. Tell me, how many large metropolises exist on directly on the Pacific Ocean north of SF?
I am aware of the series of hamlets that exist on the coast, they are tiny compared the towns in Japan. If the 3 people in Cosmopolis, WA want to take issue with what I said then fine, I stand by my statement.
Spectacular, I've been to Cannon Beach; and there are a lot more than 3 people living there-I've also been to Aberdeen, and it's even bigger. This was during the off season, too. Do those people who would be completely devastated, as they are right on the COASTLINE, not count to you? I suppose only Seattle matters in your mind-or only large towns. Just how large does a town have to be for it to be important enough for you? Or maybe you just don't get it. Do you think a tsunami only affects a tiny area of the coast? Well it doesn't. Oregon isn't that far away and it would be affected. Why are only certain people important enough for you to be concerned about?
Aberdeen is on Grays Harbor, not the same as the Pacific. So you think the NW coast is comparable to Japan? Really? In Japan major population and industry centers got hit hard, those don't exist up here on our coast. It would not be comparable. Yes, I am aware the string of towns on the Oregon and WA coast would be wiped out, that still would not compare to Japan. I think you are the one who doesn't get it.
Sendai has or had, over 1 million people. No offense to Seaside or Lincoln City, but no, there is no comparison. And compared to Japan, it is virtually unpopulated. In fact compare it to any other coast line in the US aside from Alaska, tell me the figures you come up with. I'm willing to be it has the least - by far.
Population density map http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cascadia_megacity_map.png
Sighber
Just sharing an important message, that effects eternal life.
I also live in this area of Washington, and was stationed at Port Angelas.
Just in the event nobody has actually been paying attention regarding tsunamis on the US coasts, archaeologists have definitely identified areas on the west coast where tsunamis have reached as far inland as seven miles in Washington and parts of Oregon. California has had traces of ancient tsunamis all the way inland past Oakland and over both Los Angeles and San Diego. The East coast is not immune, either, since tsunami evidence has been shown all the way from Florida to Virginia. If you seriously want to avoid tsunamis, move to a location with an elevation over 2000 feet above sea level. That would be a good start. It's not a matter of 'if' but 'when'.
"...and the rest of the thing is being bent." Is that some kind of science-talk description, or were they interviewing a 5 year old?
This is beginning to smack of climategate nonsense....tsunami could destroy US Northeast...says NOAA official as budget is being cut. Any day now....no alarm, though...look to Japan to see your future...no alarm, though. So what is it? A disaster about to happen, or a budget crunch ploy? Think the latter.....scientific credibility...down the drain, again.
Northwest. Got your compass a little mixed up there.
hey grandpa- this information has been around along time and historical geological evidence prooves it- leave the science to the scientists!
If the Mayans get this wrong, they shouldn't feel bad because it's not the end of the world.
Simple fact of the matter is: Major natural disasters happen.
The US has been pretty lucky over the last 300 years or so:
1. No major tsunamis, though both west and east coasts are at risk for such events.
2. The Yellowstone Caldera will blow, as it has in the past - and when it does it won't be pretty. It will be to Mt. St Helens what a nuclear blast is to a conventional bomb - worse beyond what you can probably imagine.
3. Earthquakes have been of a "manageable" level - but the inevitable "big one" is always lurking.
On a global scale, we've also been quite lucky: Major meteor impacts, well... they happen. They have happened, they will happen. They just haven't happened (on a human time scale nor a global disaster scale) lately.
Nature is arbitrary and unstoppable in its actions at times. That's just life. Whether you call it an act of God, a random act of nature, or whatever - the results are the same and to paraphrase the famous Honey Badger you tube video: "Nature don't care."
I won't lose a moment of sleep over it however - that would be silly.
Elvoid, I have to agree with you. It just happens. Having landed in Narita Airport 24 hrs after the quake last year, all I can say is... it's an experience. And we missed all the explosions, too.