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A February map from the U.S Geological Survey shows the estimated range of the great Cascadia earthquake of 1700.
A massive earthquake like the one that unleashed a giant tsunami and killed nearly 16,000 people in Japan a year ago not only could happen here in the U.S., but probably will — and relatively soon in terms of seismological history.
The Tohoku earthquake was the most closely monitored in history, yielding an unprecedented breadth of data, geophysicists and seismologists say. And for residents of the Pacific Northwest, the new data should be worrisome.
"It's just like Japan, only a mirror image," said Gerard Fryer, a geophysicist at the University of Hawaii and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.
The disaster in Japan occurred because of stress from the Pacific tectonic plate sliding below Japan, according to new research discussed last month at the annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Vancouver, British Columbia.
The lead researcher, John Anderson, a geophysicist at the University of Nevada-Reno, said the plates locked together, slowly pushing Japan westward.
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Ben Gutierrez and Lisa Kubota of NBC station KHNL in Honolulu contributed to this report by M. Alex Johnson of msnbc.com. Follow M. Alex Johnson on Twitter and Facebook. |
The plates released catastrophically on March 11, 2011, creating a magnitude-9.0 earthquake and tsunami waves that topped 100 feet, said Anderson, who spent most of the past year in Japan as a visiting research professor in Tokyo.
While most Americans probably think the San Andreas fault running through California poses the greatest threat of unleashing a killer mega-quake, data from the Japanese quake indicate that the distinction actually belongs to the Cascadia fault line, which runs through southern Canada, Washington and Oregon to Northern California, Anderson said at the conference.
USGS earthquake information by state
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Biggest threat zones The biggest threats of a U.S. mega-quake (generally defined as one of magnitude 7.0 or greater) lie along three fault lines: The Cascadia subduction zone stretches from northern Vancouver Island through Seattle and Portland, Ore., to Northern California, separating the Juan de Fuca and North America plates. Giant quakes are believed to occur there every 300 to 600 years; the last was Jan. 26, 1700. Recent research suggests the region could have a 37 percent chance of a magnitude-8.2 quake or greater in the next 50 years. The San Andreas transform fault runs the length of California, separating the Pacific and North American plates. The last mega-quake was in 1906 near San Francisco, but large earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or above are relatively common in historical terms, having occurred as recently as September 2004 near Parkfield. The New Madrid seismic zone stretches southwest from New Madrid, Mo. (pronounced MAD-rid), and is most active in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, where it regularly produces small- to medium-intensity temblors. Three magnitude-8.0 quakes are believed to have occurred in the region from December 1811 to February 1812; had Memphis, Tenn., existed at the time, it likely would have been destroyed. Since then, the largest earthquake was a magnitude-6.6 quake in October 1895 near Charleston, Mo. msnbc.com research/M. Alex Johnson. Sources: NASA Astrophysics Data System, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Oregon State University College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, U.S. Geological Survey. |
Like Fryer, he called the Pacific Northwest trench a "mirror image" of the Japanese trench — except potentially even more dangerous.
"In this mirror image, one can see that if the same earthquake occurred in Cascadia, the fault would rupture to a significant distance inland, since the Cascadia trench sits much closer to the coastline than the trench off the coast of Japan," Anderson said.
While some probability models predict that a Cascadia earthquake wouldn't rupture so far under the land, "if it does, the data from the Tohoku earthquake predict stronger ground motions along our West Coast than those seen in Japan," he said.
In layman's terms, what's happening is that the region "is being deformed because the plates are locked together, and the shoreline is sinking and the rest of the thing is being bent," Fryer said in an interview with NBC station KHNL of Honolulu.
Fryer said the big question is not whether a Japan-like quake will happen, but when.
A coastal Oregon town considers building a tsunami- and earthquake-proof city hall. Experts and residents debate whether the plan will work.
"Where are we here? Are we close or are we not close?" he asked. "I think the suspicion is that it could be sooner rather than later."
Anderson's research supports that conclusion.
Experts generally agree that last great Cascadia earthquake happened on Jan. 26, 1700. It generated tsunami waves that indicated that its magnitude was also about 9.0.
"Earthquakes of this size in the past may have recurred with intervals of as small as about 300 years," Anderson said at the AAAS conference last month. "So it would not be a scientific surprise if such an event were to occur in the near future. If you live in the Pacific Northwest, look at the videos of Tohoku as a reminder to be prepared."
In January, experts discussed lessons from the Japanese earthquake at a conference of the Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup.
The warnings come as the White House is proposing a 2013 budget that would cut $4.6 million from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's tsunami programs. Much of that would come from the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which funds evacuation maps, training and education efforts — important services given how deeply the Japanese quake and tsunami transformed the science of seismology.
"The Japan earthquake told us that a lot of what we understand about how earthquakes work is wrong," Fryer said. "Do we now have to go back and look at all of our evacuation maps and make sure that they're right? That's a question that's still unanswered, and that question would be answered with tsunami hazard mitigation program funds."
More on the Japan Quake-Tsunami from msnbc.com and NBC News:
- Prediction lessons from the Japan quake
- One year after Fukushima, Japanese town is frozen in time
- Japanese tsunami survivor, 79, looks ahead
- Tsunami Survivors: Struggling to live on, alone
- Japan Red Cross: Whole year wasted after tsunami
- Cosmic Log: Hear the soundtrack of a super-quake
- Nuke pill frenzy fizzles in U.S. as Fukushima fades
- Photo Blog: Panoramic images, then and now
- Japan disaster snarls U.S. nuke plant plans
Leave a Comment:
It's all okay now, the nuclear geek squad claims to have factored in every conceivable scenario. Okay sheeple, nothing to see here, everyone keep moving.
As I have been saying now for the last 10 years--Cascadia is over due and a huge mismanagement mistake waiting to happen. They are so lackadasical about this in Washington as it's akin to insanity building anything to less than a 9.0 standard--more likely it will be 9.5 or so same as Chile if the period grows longer and longer it will be bigger and bigger quake.
The tsunami is also being understated by the USGS and almost every government department. The tsunami has been recorded at over 100 feet in the past so expect every bit of that much at least with another 9+ quake. The USGS claims 30 feet. That is totally bogus. It will easily be over 70 to 80 feet and the last one produced 90 feet.
Even the much further distant quake in Alaska--a 9.2, produced waves over 35 feet in Northern California and Hawaii. So you know darn well that the Cascadia fault that close to shore will produce waves of at least 100 feet and you will have at best 5 minutes to get to land higher than that. That's if you can stay standing up during the 5 minute quake that's expected. If you wait until the quake dies down it's already to late!
DO NOT LISTEN TO THE USGS they are full of liars trying to protect their own property values nothing more.
I'm going to check EBAY for waterwings or get a boat! On a good note, being about 200 miles from the coast, I might end up with beach front property!
This Is NOT New information!!!!!
We have known for years (decades) the very real threat of Tsunamis in Oregon.
Hundreds of years ago an earthquake estimated to be around 9 on the scale hit and there is evidence of the Tsunami from that quake. We are due.
They have run models of the entire coast showing where the wave damage would be. We have Tsunami routes posted. This is not new information, though I suppose there might be folks living in caves somewhere that have no idea.
and if you don't eat all your broccoli Santa Claus is going to pass you by, and the boogey man will eat your brain....but medical marijuana is acceptable up there so who cares if the earth moves a little...it's just another day!!!
Tsunami bunkers.. Now you're talking..
Tragic!!
NOAA just last year moved further south from Washington. They dredged a new harbor, dock and shore facility. It is now located in the harbor of Newport Oregon, near the marine aquarium and educational site. I assume they want to be close to record the 'action'?
Along the coastline of Washington, Oregon and California, there are small signs with images of a wave chasing a stick figure.. running...up hill. Lives have been lost to tsunami's along that coastline in the past. Now there are 'stacked disc' towers for loud automated tsunami warnings. Beautiful coastline all along that western edge of the USA. Oregon has some great State Parks. Reservations are recommended, especially if you want front row accommodations to watch and video the next Tsunami. Imagine how impressed the rest of us will be, to see your HD You Tube postings. :>)
Yeah that makes sense, move from the shores of Lake Washington right into the tsunami bullseye. Once again the bean counters win.
Everything ends up being about "funds."
The Pacific Rim of Fire, we all live by it on the west coast. I live just south of the San Onofre Nuclear Power Plant in Carlsbad, California and every time I feel a shudder I wonder if it's the BIG one. Hang tough Washington and Oregon and be prepared. We have these earthquake preparedness kits down here that are pretty good if you supplement them with things like a portable generator and at LEAST a 6 person tent. Peace.
Well, when the Cascadia fault does let go, we will have beachfront property at last! I grew up in Earthquake Country (i.e., California) so nothing to do when it happens except ride it out and pick up the pieces when it is over. Life goes on, on way or another, except for the poor souls that get caught in the wrong place. Good idea to have an escape route planned out, just in case.
A cut of 4.6 million which is 1/10th of 1% of NOAA's budget of 5.1 billion and it would mostly come from vital programs dealing with evacuations and such? Sounds like propaganda from a department that doesn't want a penny cut from their budget.
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Man, if MSNBC isn't busy trying to bring about economic collapse, they're hoping a million or so people will die in time to save their ratings. FYI, the Mayans weren't that smart and Mayan calendar is garbage. When you count leap years (which they didn't) and so on, the Mayan calendar ran out months ago. So did the charlatans still clinging to the faint hope that they'll be proven right by the end of the world. Not that it'll matter if the world ends. Short-sighted nitwits. The same people who said nostradamus forsaw 9/11. Soon after 9/11 Penn Jillette offered one million dollars to anyone who could prove that nostradamus predicted it and the offer still stands. It's all nonsense, as is this article. Sure, a tsunami could wipe out the northwest and aliens could attack Paris, a meteor could strike Moscow or MSNBC could report actual news. They all have about the same odds. Hell, I'm surprised the headline wasn't about the potential end of the world that could be brought about by a huge solar flare, what with the solar maximum coming up in a couple years. Which, by the way, space scientists predict to be relatively weak. Guess they'll have to find another boogieman.
Mark...
Don't you mean your mind is failing ...faling....fa........
Bet you're one of those people if we had that major Tsunami tomorrow and thousands died,
YOU would be on your soap box saying, HEY, they were warned and paid no attention....
Wonder if people are trying to save thier jobs by trying to scare people....?
"The warnings come as the White House is proposing a 2013 budget that would cut $4.6
million from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's tsunami
programs. Much of that would come from the National Tsunami
Hazard Mitigation Program, which funds evacuation maps, training and
education efforts — important services given how deeply the Japanese quake and
tsunami transformed the science of seismology."
Nova had an entire program dedicated to the most dangerous places in America to live and outlined the scenerio of a rupture along the Cascadia Subduction Zone and the results would be catastrophic. Tsunamis in this area in the past have produced waves of anywhere from 100 to 300 feet in height with the waves reaching as far as 700 miles inland and the other fault rupture was the Hayward Fault the runs the entire length of the East Bay San Francisco/Oakland/Berkeley area. It is overdue and has not ruptured in 130 years.
Similar has happened on the east coast in the past. Estimated wave crests at 300' & traveling hundreds of miles inland, as the east coast outside of New England is fairly low.
In response to the world ending Dec 2012, here's something to think about. Leap year was created by Ceasar I believe around 48 B.C. If this had not happened we would be over 7 months ahead. Our calendar would be saying July 2013. The Mayans had no clue that these changes had been made. So technically the world should already have ended?
You're forgetting the switch from the Julian calendar to the Gregorian. Between the two, they result in Jesus being born in 36 bc - in other words, He was born 36 years before He was born...! The Mayan calendar is only accurate in relation to itself. And NONE of us knows WHEN they started dating their world (or how often they re-drew their own calendar...). They whole "controversy" is meaningless.
What an interesting map of the 1700 quake at the Cascadia fault. Why would any responsible news agency post such a map without a key? One would hope MSNBC would be more informative, less sensational.
Finally it pays not to be rich in Southern California and not to be able to live near the ocean!
Cutting excess is good, but some things need to be delegated to the federal government. Earthquake research and warning systems for tsunamis are one. Who else would do it? Private industry? Not unless there is profit in it & would you trust a private corp with this? "Oh we predict a mega disaster very soon, but the good news is we have a construction crew in the area right now! We recommend everyone build a 100' wall around their home and install 3 of our S class generators. We have financing available! Don't wait call now! Our operators are standing by!" Expenditures of our collective tax dollars for this type of research should be considered a defense expenditure. I can just imagine the complaints if and when such a event happens and the federal gov't had done nothing. Who is going to come to your rescue in a disaster? IBM? Goldman Sachs? We pool our money through taxes to aid & advance the common good of all.
God made man in his own image....
... and after reading some of the comments for the God-Squad posted here today I conclude God must be pretty stupid because followers sure are. :/
It's sure a beautiful day at my place. Must be spring already.
If a tsunami hits, pray it's the northwest and not the east coast.
No, the east coast needs a wake-up call.
Oh, come ON! Enough with the scare headlines! Seismologists and Geologists have known about the Cascadia Fault for decades. Everyone with two brain cells to rub together knows the potential for disaster. They just hope it won't happen while they're alive. Vulcanologists have shown us that over 50,000 people live on top of the last lahar Mt. Rainier threw out. If it happens again, they're ALL dead meat. They just hope that it won't happen in THEIR lifetimes (or that they'll be at work in downtown Seattle when it does...). If you want "safe," build an underground bunker in Montana or Wyoming. Oops, if the Yellowstone supervolcano goes, you'd be buried alive under twenty feet of volcanic ash. Pompeii redux.
All of those that live in both Washington and Oregon ALREADY KNOW about the Juan DeFuca plate and potential damage. When will MSNBC and other Tabloid reporters stop this crap and report something that is REAL. We know what can happen, stop the sensationalism of reporting.
Just breaking NEWS, IN THE NEAR GEOLOGICAL FUTURE LOS ANGELES AND SAN FRANCISCO WILL BE NEIGHBORING CITIES!!!!
BTW: what that means is in the next 50-100,000 years.
And if you really want to scare the people living on the EAST Coast, write a chilling article about Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma in the Azores. And how the side of that volcano (that's already kinda loose...) sliding into the sea during an eruption could send tsunami waves a hundred feet high against our Atlantic Coast. Both Cumbre Vieja and Cascadia are discussed about once a month on either the Discovery Channel or the Science Channel. We know all about them. We also know that we can't do a damn thing ABOUT them. They're just part of the world we live in. DEAL WITH IT!
Thank you for that. When will they hire a REAL Journalist that reports news we don't kno0w about?