'Warming up mighty early' across parts of US

Susan Walsh / AP

The recent warm spell across much of the U.S. has included Washington, D.C., where it was 80 degrees on Thursday -- perfect weather for recreating near the Washington Monument.

So now that March feels like May in much of the U.S., what's May going to feel like? The East Coast and South can expect above-normal temperatures, federal forecasters announced Thursday -- a day when Atlanta and Chicago were among the cities that posted new daily highs.

After a brief cooling, the warm spell should continue through the rest of March, especially in the East, and into early summer across the South as well, said Ed O'Lenic, chief of operations at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.

"It's warming up mighty early," he added.

Signs of a premature spring range from early cherry blossoms in Washington, D.C., to farmers preparing to plant.


 

"This warm weather will advance crops beyond where they normally are," Reuters quoted meteorologist Joel Burgio of Telvent DTN as saying.

Wheat in the South was ahead of normal, Burgio said, fruit trees are blooming early in the Southeast, and Midwest farmers will be lured into starting spring field work earlier than usual.

"The concern is that if a sudden change to colder weather comes after this very warm interlude, then you could have some crop problems," he said.

But the Climate Prediction Center wasn't expecting that. "Above-average temperatures this spring are most likely from the Desert Southwest through the central and southern Great Plains, the Great Lakes, and the Eastern U.S.," the center said of its three-month outlook, "while the Pacific Northwest and Alaska are favored to be cooler than average."

In Washington, D.C., temperatures reached an all-time high, and in less than a week more than 900 new record highs have been tied or broken. NBC's Brian Williams reports.

This week, dozens of cities have seen temperatures above 80 degrees and much of the region has been 30 degrees warmer than normal.

On Thursday, Atlanta saw 82 degrees Fahrenheit, a degree warmer than its previous record for a March 15 back in 1973. Chicago broke its record with 77 degrees, 3 more than in 1995. 

On Wednesday, 307 sites across the country -- the vast majority in the Midwest -- broke their record for the warmest March 14. Ninety-three tied their record.

The same was in store for the rest of the week as well, though a notable exception to the warmth has been the Pacific Northwest where snow, ice and rain have kept winter alive.

This time last year, officials were worried about a heavy winter snowpack and its potential to create massive flooding -- a scenario that played out in many areas.

NOAA

Now, however, the threat isn't snow and flooding but heat and drought.

"What a difference a year makes," Laura Furgione, deputy director of the National Weather Service, told reporters at the agency's annual Spring Outlook news conference.

The drought concerns focus on west Texas and New Mexico -- and more recently Georgia, three-quarters of which is in severe, extreme or exceptional drought.

 

Drought and dry weather also raise the chances of wildfires.

In the Chicago suburbs, warmer weather was tied to four brush fires in three counties. One destroyed a bar and killed six horses, the Morris Daily Herald reported.

"It does seem like these fires are popping up early," local fire chief Ron Hoehne told the Daily Herald. "I can only assume it's because of a lack of snow or rain so far this year."

So is global warming behind the temperature increase? While "extreme events like we've seen are consistent" with warming, O'Lenic said when asked at the news conference, "it's impossible to connect any single event like this one with climate change." 

D.C. Cherry Blossom Festival blooms early

He also cited two naturally occuring factors: La Nina and what's known as the Arctic Oscillation, a measure of changing atmospheric pressure.

The Arctic Oscillation flipped from last year, when it helped create conditions for heavy snow, O'Lenic noted, so this winter has seen "the other side of the AO coin," with cold Arctic air being blocked from coming down into the U.S.

Last winter also saw a strong La Nina, a cooling of the Pacific Ocean, that lasted through spring and impacted weather globally. La Nina did return this winter, he added, but this time it "is fading fairly rapidly."

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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So, with farmers planting early, that will mean an abundance, so prices should drop, technically. But they won't.

In other news.... this same weather pattern happened in 1987.

  • 3 votes
Reply#29 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:51 PM EDT

Thanks for pointing that out. I will check it out so I will know what to expect. Thanks!

    #29.1 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:36 AM EDT
    Reply

    ha! where'd that winter go eh? Al Gore is laughing his ass off, especially at the jerk just above me. Get ready to start roasting you turkeys.

    • 1 vote
    Reply#31 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:21 PM EDT

    Al Gore stands to make a lot of money trading "carbon credits." It is foolish to believe he doesn't have self-serving interests when it comes to AGW.

      #31.1 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:04 PM EDT
      Reply

      blah, blah, blah... actually a normal spring in the north... blah, blah, blah...

      • 1 vote
      Reply#32 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:21 PM EDT

      Snowing here in Nova Scotia!

        Reply#33 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:28 PM EDT

        I knew if I came to this thread,i would not have to read any of the article! for you global warming nuts! Don't throw away your jacket yet,it snowed 6 inches in Portland,OR two days ago!It you are to warm,move north!If your not,stay put.The earth is very dinamic environment that has undergone numerous temperature fluctuations in the past and will under go more but not necessary to our detriment!Stand tall and quit worrying about every warm spring day!

          Reply#34 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:31 PM EDT

          We just got a light dusting of snow. Not too warm here! It's amazing according to liberals when temps are low it's weather not climate, yet when temps are high it's climate not weather. Just a little consistency please.

            Reply#35 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:33 PM EDT

            I am LOVING this global warming here in Chicago

              Reply#36 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:34 PM EDT

              Snow tommorrow.

                Reply#37 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:37 PM EDT

                I'm 65 years old, and this kind of weather would have been considered a sign of the end of the world when I was a kid. Unthinkable. And any moron who says billions of humans burning fossil fuels is not responsible is full of @!$%#.

                • 3 votes
                Reply#38 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:43 PM EDT

                Proof with age comes senility!!

                Hmmm... His opinion is ALL Al Gore needs!! (-:

                  #38.1 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:22 PM EDT
                  Reply

                  ok define normal - thats the new phrase of the right - how about this "typical" typically as long as i have been around i have never seen weather like this , it is not typical to what i/we are used to ,so it is changing and changing fast ...and guess what i do not need a scientist with all his high falootin numbers and graphs - can see it with my own eyes - seeing is believin right guys , na not with this group , they believe in magic gardens with talking snakes and people coming back from the dead ..........that they swallow whole , this climate stuff they are actually living thru ..........not happening .....priceless

                  • 2 votes
                  Reply#39 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:47 PM EDT

                  Exactly!!!! Force "creationism" in our public schools now but deny science as a "liberal indoctrination conspiracy theory" and anything that has to do with alternative energy as an UnAmerican job-killing GREEN SCAM so we can keep being forced to use oil, coal and gas forever which pollute, pollute, pollute everything and we continue to wage war over and more people have DIED for and entire ecosystems have been "dead zones" and has cost us TRLLIONS now?
                  But let's go right on strip mining, drilling, fracking and laying thousands of miles of MORE leaking pipe everywhere and burning the stuff in our atmosphere in spite of the hardcore evidence that what we've been doing with this stuff MUST be curbed , not INCREASED. I just want to SHAKE these loons as they act so "holier the thou" but worship Big Oil right up there with their "god and saviour".

                    #39.1 - Sat Mar 17, 2012 1:07 AM EDT
                    Reply

                    This puts nearly every fruit tree crop at risk (apples, peach, pear, plum etc.) as well as grape vineyards.

                    This lasting week, caused early flower without pollination, or fruits forming too early, and at risk of frost.

                    Gone for this winter is snow cover to buffer late winter and spring storms, nothing works better than snow and ice to kill a warm spring storm.

                    The lack of snow cover, damages northern winter cover crops, and leaves no water to soak in for the summer dryness.

                    The absence of rain this early in the season, means less rain to last the summer, this makes a good growing season likely.

                    Survive the Weather Today, See the Climate tomorrow.

                    Comments: for Composting.

                    • If just one weather cycle that kills you it is relevant the next million are not.
                    • Right wing funds ignorance, not only to make you ignorant is also makes stupid permanent.
                    • Drunken horses would be a lot smaller.
                    • No ground hogs, just gophers, in Washington?
                    • George W Bush proved the presidency an empty shirt, while most of the rest of us lost theirs.
                    • One of the consequences of global warming is the loss of tillable land.
                    • Good heavens, why do intelligent people have to put up with these fools and knaves?
                    • A solar flare is about equal to 40 minutes of normal solar wind, or less than 6 minutes of solar fusion.
                    • What concerns me is what effect this early warming trend might have on potential severe weather.
                    • 23% or so of the Suns energy hitting the Earth has rejected to space by weather to keep the climate cool.
                    • Yeah, I agree. The early onset of massive tornadoes -- and the extended area they covered -- is worrying.
                    • The amount of energy rejected into space is equal to 60 hurricanes /year, or one every 6 days.
                    • Ronald Reagan was awarded two Nobel prizes one for Botany and the other for Economics.
                    • I don't care about what might happen somewhere down the road or what happens to your bastard grandchildren.
                    • One hurricane has enough energy to melt 16 feet of ice over all of Green land.
                    • 2 votes
                    Reply#40 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:50 PM EDT

                    If its cold and snowy proof of global warming, if its warm and sunny proof of global warming if its chilly and rainy proof of global warming. learn it, know it, live it.

                    • 1 vote
                    Reply#41 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:00 PM EDT

                    The "proof" of global warming is mostly in the fact the global average temperatures are increasing (now 35 consecutive years above the 20th Century average). Other things, like more extreme weather events, are consequences of warming that can be predicted by models and confirmed by statistical methods.

                    • 1 vote
                    #41.1 - Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:53 AM EDT
                    Reply

                    GOD is in control of the climate... WHY WORRY!!!??? I am not..

                    • 2 votes
                    Reply#42 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:21 PM EDT

                    There is no "god".

                      #42.1 - Sat Mar 17, 2012 1:16 AM EDT
                      Reply

                      Climategate is an unholy mix of junk science, green hype, corporate greed and political opportunism that led to the biggest and most expensive hoax in history.

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#43 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:23 PM EDT

                      It's a helluva racket, if you can get in on it.

                        #43.1 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:08 PM EDT
                        Reply

                        Anyone remember about a year ago. A Earth Quake in Japan and Tsunami that followed. At that time they said it was the most powerful ever. Earth Quake was so powerful it knocked the earth off it axis is what was reported at that time on the news. Maybe not global warming after all. But the New Future. Now all we need in Illinois is more access to the oceans. And an Honest Governor. Oh well 2 out 3 but still holding out for Honest Politicians.

                          Reply#44 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:26 PM EDT

                          the article said.."one bar was destroyed and six horses were killed !"my question is why were the horses at the bar drinking in the first place !!a horse walked into a bar and the bartender says "why the long face?"

                          • 2 votes
                          Reply#45 - Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:29 PM EDT

                          Love the weather here in Iowa, looks like I will have firewood to carry over to next season.. Just hope that this doesn't mean a long hot hot summer.

                          • 1 vote
                          Reply#46 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 12:02 AM EDT

                          I am worried about that too. our summers are already monstrous here. I dread summer as it is.LOL

                            #46.1 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:42 AM EDT

                            TX can "burn again" and idiot Perry will be praying for rain.

                              #46.2 - Sat Mar 17, 2012 1:19 AM EDT
                              Reply

                              This isn't 'early'! Back in the 90's it used to be warmer than it is now! How I know this? Because my grandmother would have me in my dress on Easter and we would be outside sweating and taking photos. Looking at those photos now make me see how easily people forget.

                              • 1 vote
                              Reply#47 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 12:19 AM EDT

                              We were usually in coats hunting the eggs.LOL

                                #47.1 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:43 AM EDT
                                Reply

                                Time to get the swimming pool ready.

                                  Reply#48 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 12:26 AM EDT

                                  The world is like an old fashioned ice box. Where the avg temps stay nearly the same until the polar ice caps i mean the block of ice at the bottom is completely melted. After that, temps will soar completely out of control just like in an old ice box. With the polar ice melting, for every spot that's hotter there should be a spot that's colder.

                                    Reply#49 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 12:45 AM EDT

                                    ...Which will lead to increased oceanic convection, and greater percentages of global cloudcover... which will increase the incidence and size of storms... eventually reducing global temperature...? Damn that hydrologic cycle! BTW, nobody is trying to say it won't be unpleasant.

                                    Believing that global warming can just continue on the same trajectory until everything burns up is absurd everywhere except the most sterile realms of mathematics.

                                      #49.1 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:13 PM EDT

                                      I'm not sure about "everything burning up," but the geological evidence is very clear that there have been past warming events (some directly caused by natural releases of greenhouse gases) where global temperatures were approximately 10 deg F hotter than now, and sea levels 200 to 300 feet higher once the ice had melted.

                                      • 1 vote
                                      #49.2 - Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:59 AM EDT
                                      Reply

                                      But when mr grover, the gop, & the rushbo tell you that things will be better with global warming. They need to think about the animals, plants, & sea life. And how sooo many are dying off. Google 'climate change plants' and read thru the 110M hits. Is an acid sea of help.

                                        Reply#50 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 12:50 AM EDT

                                        Yes, yes, yes. We are crappy stewards of this planet. We have all caused this despite the cyclical nature of Mother Earth. Our infestation is growing. Don't worry though. All will come right. Have a bit of faith. It's really all we have left. Take care all.

                                        • 1 vote
                                        Reply#51 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 12:56 AM EDT

                                        If only The Mr. President, THE Barack Obama was around, we could he have stopped the Ice Age??? If only I could remember my 2nd grade science teacher's name, I could direct all of The (great) United States of America in her direction so she could very politely remind our great fellow Countrymen, THAT THE WORLD HAS BEEN HEATING AND COOLING ITSELF SINCE THE BEGINNING OF I'TS EXISTENCE. I'm thinking so with a lot of "logic" being thrown around out there. When will this conversation stop, and people realize that not ONE recognized scientist has SCIENTIFICALLY proven that any of our emissions or any gasses, etc, etc, etc are directly responsbile for what is happening to our atmosphere/weather, etc....... you theorize, test, prove/disprove......the most we've done is come up with a bunch of theories and a lot of conversation.

                                        I'm not sure what's a bigger BS media topic to give some folks job security whose sole job it is to speak daily regarding these topics. "global warming" or "football is too rough, we should find a way to play where nobody ever gets hurt". hhmmmmmmmm Happy st. pattys day all

                                          Reply#52 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 1:25 AM EDT

                                          Yeah but it DOES'T happen at THIS rate you IDIOT but rather over the course of millions and billions of her years unless you're one of the members of the conservative "flat earth society" and think our planet is only 6,000 years old? Human activity and the burning of fossil fuels is absolutely a contributor to what has been going into our atmsphere coupled with the deforestation we have caused with excessive development and clear cutting of millions of acres of trees, not to mention acreage BURNED by out of control WILDFIRES. Keep up your "turning away" and flippant disregard of the painfully obvious just to protect your own selfish lifestyle that you refuse to change.

                                          SMH!!

                                          • 1 vote
                                          #52.1 - Sat Mar 17, 2012 1:29 AM EDT
                                          Reply

                                          I accept the science of humans changing the atmospheric chemical composition through globalized industrialization. Much to my frustration and concern for future generations, the political reality is that there are so many ignorant Americans (some by choice, some by circumstance) it will take many years of violent spring weather, unusually hot summers, drought, and increasingly acidic oceans before today's ignorant are dead and more informed voters decide to take action. The problem is that so much more pollution will have been added to the atmosphere by then that the train of climate change will have already left the station. What I don't understand is that we buy insurance for our lives, homes, autos, and other valuables but we don't place a value on our planet by paying for insurance just in case the science is correct.

                                          For those of us who don’t like to be ignorant about the science of altering the atmosphere's chemistry, I suggest the following books with a brief quote from each:

                                          1. A Green History of the World, Clive Ponting, 1991 – “The net result of these human activities is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen by a third in the last two hundred years – from about 270 parts per million in 1750 to 350 parts per million in the late 1980s. About half of this increase has occurred since the 1950s – carbon dioxide emissions rose from 1.6 billion tons a year in 1950 to 5.4 billion tons in the mid-1980s. Global use of fossil fuels is rising at about 4 per cent a year (which means a doubling every sixteen years) and carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere at about .5 per cent a year. Carbon dioxide has provided by far the greatest volume of greenhouse gas emissions and contributed about two-thirds of the total warming effect so far.” [page 388]
                                          2. The Little Ice Age, Brian Fagan, 2000 – “The Little Ice Age reminds us that climate change is inevitable, unpredictable, and sometimes vicious. The future promises exactly the same kinds of violent change on a local and global scale. If the present, unusually prolonged high mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation is indeed due to anthropogenic forcing, then we must also assume that global warming will accentuate the natural cycles of global climate on the largest and smallest scales. Some of these potential cycles of change are frightening to contemplate in an overpopulated and heavily industrialized world.” [page 214] “Over a century ago, Victorian biologist Thomas Huxley urged us to be ‘humble before the facts’. The facts stare us in the face, yet we do not display sufficient humility. The vicissitudes of the Little Ice Age remind us of our vulnerability again and again. In a new climatic era, we would be wise to learn from the climatic lessons of history.” [page 217]
                                          3. The Long Summer, Brian Fagan, 2004 – “Short-term climatic events like droughts do not often leave a clear footprint. But the droughts of the Medieval Warm Period (or Medieval Climatic Anomaly, as it is often called) left giant tracks across the American west, wrought in deep-sea cores, pollen samples, tree rings, and ice cores from high in the Andes. From the California coast to the Maya lowlands to Lake Titicaca, five centuries of sudden aridity wrought havoc on human societies already living close to the environmental edge.” [pages 214-215]
                                          4. The Weather Makers, Timothy Flannery, 2005 – “The concentration of C02 in the atmosphere in times past can be measured from bubbles of air preserved in ice. By drilling about two miles into the Antarctic ice cap, scientists have drawn out an ice core that spans almost a million years of Earth history. This unique record demonstrates that during cold times CO2 levels have dropped to around 160 parts per million, and until recently they never exceeded 280 parts per million. The Industrial Revolution changed that, albeit slowly, for even by 1958, when Keeling began his measurements of CO2 atop Mauna Loa, it was up to only 315 parts per million.” [page 29] “Today the figures are 380 parts per million….” [page 28]
                                          5. Collapse, Jared Diamond, 2005 – “…the atmosphere really has been undergoing an unusually rapid rise in temperature recently and that human activities are the or a major cause. The remaining uncertainties mainly concern the future expected magnitude of the effect: e.g., whether average global temperatures will increase by ‘just’ 1.5 degrees Centigrade or by 5 degrees Centigrade over the next century. Those numbers may not sound like a big deal, until one reflects that average global temperatures were ‘only’ 5 degrees cooler at the height of the last Ice Age.” [page 493]
                                          6. The Revenge of Gaia, James Lovelock, 2006 – “Predictions of climate change do not depend only on theoretical models in the form of computer simulations of the Earth. There is now a vast array of monitoring activities sustained globally. Air and sea temperatures are continuously measured, as are the gases of the atmosphere, the cloud cover, the floating ice and the glaciers and the health of the ecosystems in the ocean and on the land. The truth of the models is therefore continuously tested against the observations coming in from the real world.” [page 57]
                                          7. Dead Pool, James Lawrence Powell, 2008 – “The question is not whether the earth has warmed, but why? The scientific consensus is that the cause is the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which absorb heat and trap it near the earth. In one of the most prescient predictions in science, in 1896 … Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius predicted the very rise that we now observe. Based on the knowledge that carbon dioxide molecules trap heat, Arrhenius calculated that if atmospheric carbon dioxide level were to double, global temperatures would rise between 7 and 11 degrees F. More than a century later with vastly more information, IPCC forecasts that by 2100, temperatures will rise between 2.5 and 10.5 degrees F, overlapping the range the Swedish chemist forecast long ago. Arrhenius thought it might take three thousand years for carbon dioxide levels to double, but sadly that is one forecast that he got wrong.” [pages 171-2]

                                          I make these suggestions to help frame the science behind the issues associated with human-caused changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Many people seem ignorant of the science behind climate analysis and content to put their heads deeply into the sand. The defining characteristic of humanity, complex intelligence, is enhanced by a broad liberal education. Thomas Jefferson had this to say about higher education including science: “the university [of Virginia] would be ‘now qualified to raise its youth to an order of science unequalled in any other state; and this superiority will be greater from the free range of mind encouraged there, and the restraint imposed at other seminaries by the shackles of a domineering hierarchy and a bigoted adhesion to ancient habits.’” [from Thomas Jefferson, Willard Sterne Randall, 1993, page 588]

                                          • 2 votes
                                          Reply#53 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 1:25 AM EDT

                                          Excellent sources and facts but the majority of the trolls and fools here would rather take their "facts" from Faux Noise, Limbaugh that pile of crap James Inhofe just put out. You might as well beat your head against a wall then try and post logic HERE. Some of us are listening though and don't give up as we're needed more then ever in this insanity. Join me at 350.org

                                          • 1 vote
                                          #53.1 - Sat Mar 17, 2012 1:40 AM EDT
                                          Reply

                                          Did AlGore go back down the hole with Punxsutawney Phil?

                                            Reply#54 - Fri Mar 16, 2012 1:45 AM EDT
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