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Folks living along the Gulf and East Coasts can expect a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season, the Weather Channel said Wednesday in a forecast that falls in line with an earlier one by university researchers. The federal government, for its part, comes out with its prediction next month.
"After very active tropical seasons in 2010 and 2011, we expect fewer storms to develop this hurricane season," meteorologist Todd Crawford said on weather.com.
The big variable, he added, will be El Nino, the cyclical event that impacts Pacific Ocean temperatures and weather worldwide. An El Nino tends to increase vertical wind shear, the phenomenon of changing wind speed that can tear apart storms before they form.
"There is still uncertainty regarding the development of El Nino, which will impact future forecast updates," Crawford noted. "If the chances of El Nino development increase, our forecast numbers will likely go down even further in future updates."
Cooler North Atlantic sea temperatures are another factor behind the forecast, Crawford said.
The Weather Channel forecast calls for 11 named tropical storms, six of which become hurricanes. Two of those should be major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher, it added.
The 1950-2011 average is 12 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three growing to major storms.
Earlier this month, Colorado State University forecasters predicted 10 tropical storms, four of them becoming hurricanes and two "major" in size.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue the official U.S. forecast in late May.
NOAA this year retired Irene from its list of names for storms because of the 48 deaths and widespread damage Hurricane Irene caused in 2011.
It also slightly modified its hurricane wind rating system. As a result, Category 3 hurricanes are now 111-129 mph (from 111-130 mph), Category 4 hurricanes are 130-156 mph (from 131-155 mph), and Category 5 hurricanes are 157 mph or higher (up from 156 mph).
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The Weather Channel predicts six Atlantic hurricanes this season will boost its rating.
That reminds me of the bit by Jon Stewart: http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-june-14-2007/partly-pouty
When will the so called "experts" admit that they haven't got a clue. This year El Nino will cause less hurricanes according to "experts". Previous years El Nino was to blame for more hurricanes. Same with La Nina. One year it is responsible for more hurricanes, the next it's the reason there are less.
Weather Channel, you cannot even predict the weather 5 days out correctly, much less 5 months out.
I'll take your 'predictions' as a grain of salt.
ah you beat me to it! good man
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And predicting the number of hurricanes this season will help us....... how?
Sorry for the mutiple posts - I have no idea what happened!
Satellite? = high latency
Dear Friends:
One would think hurricanes only came from the East or Atlantic! Ivan Gustav Others! Mexico can you talk about this? Tell them. Please!
Why guess? Makes people think and try and be prepared. Tis the season.
To those who speak their peace, you do have rights, you used them. That does not mean those in office or command may not have consequences. However, for the years of service to this country, I thank you. May God be with you. It sounds like you may have a larynx or cancer or small particle nanotech size on the glands under your chin and on your neck. This can be life threatening! It also can be a place where electrodes or sound waves could have attacked you. You have spoken your rights were taken.
The party name used as an analogy is correct. Obama is a member of the Democratic Party and their mascot so to speak or political image is a donkey also sometimes called a jackass! Country as this nation USA is, there are jokingly references. A stallion a horse! A Republican a circus or elephant. Taxi what is the biological name for elephant or donkey? Yep!
Your service Marine you served many days against the enemy. Once a Marine always a Marine. I had a Marine for a boss in a mortgage company, which was also a bank. Fleet Mortgage was the name. By God he was a hard corp Marine and did not let you forget it. Some things other Presidents I did not agree with either. You know there are more than one enemy out there.
Register and vote! Thank you to all those that are serving this nation in all the military forces or branches and their families and members of our government.
If you do not want to vote for Romney and he is all that we are left with on the Republican side, please consider changing parties. Mormonism is the platform he is running on. There is the Independent Party, Democratic Party! The Republican Party has announced they are not together! Also Murdock is you a Mormon? Do you own Associated Press? All that control and God Almighty our Supreme Court in their control. Religion! Your protect it and do not vote for Romney. Amen.
Since the probability of a hurricane strike is lessened. I'm sure our hurricane insurance costs will go down. (sarcasm, unfortunately)