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Sue Ogrocki / AP
In this Sept. 30, 2011, file photo, sailboats and a floating dock lie on the dry, cracked dirt in a harbor at Lake Hefner in Oklahoma City as drought continues to be a problem across the state. The relentless type of heat that has blistered the U.S. and other parts of the world in recent years is due to man-made global warming, a new study from a top government scientist says.
The relentless, weather-gone-crazy type of heat that has blistered the United States and other parts of the world in recent years is so rare that it can't be anything but man-made global warming, says a new statistical analysis from a top government scientist.
The research by a man often called the "godfather of global warming" says that the likelihood of such temperatures occurring from the 1950s through the 1980s was rarer than 1 in 300. Now, the odds are closer to 1 in 10, according to the study by NASA scientist James Hansen. He says that statistically what's happening is not random or normal, but pure and simple climate change.
"This is not some scientific theory. We are now experiencing scientific fact," Hansen told The Associated Press in an interview.
Hansen is a scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and a professor at Columbia University. He has called for government action to curb greenhouse gases for years. While his study was published online Saturday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, it is unlikely to sway opinion among the remaining climate change skeptics.
However, several climate scientists praised the new work.
In a departure from most climate research, Hansen's study — based on statistics, not the more typical climate modeling — blames these three heat waves purely on global warming:
—Last year's devastating Texas-Oklahoma drought.
—The 2010 heat waves in Russia and the Middle East, which led to thousands of deaths.
—The 2003 European heat wave blamed for tens of thousands of deaths, especially among the elderly in France.
The analysis was written before the current drought and record-breaking temperatures that have seared much of the United States this year. But Hansen believes this too is another prime example of global warming at its worst.
In an opinion column published Saturday in The Washington Post, Hansen said his predictions in the late 1980s of the dire consequences of steadily increasing temperatures have proven to be worse than he thought.
“Our analysis shows that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change. To the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate change.
The deadly European heat wave of 2003, the fiery Russian heat wave of 2010 and catastrophic droughts in Texas and Oklahoma last year can each be attributed to climate change. And once the data are gathered in a few weeks’ time, it’s likely that the same will be true for the extremely hot summer the United States is suffering through right now.
These weather events are not simply an example of what climate change could bring. They are caused by climate change. The odds that natural variability created these extremes are minuscule, vanishingly small. To count on those odds would be like quitting your job and playing the lottery every morning to pay the bills."
The new research makes the case for the severity of global warming in a different way than most scientific studies and uses simple math instead of relying on complex climate models or an understanding of atmospheric physics. It also doesn't bother with the usual caveats about individual weather events having numerous causes.
The increase in the chance of extreme heat, drought and heavy downpours in certain regions is so huge that scientists should stop hemming and hawing, Hansen said. "This is happening often enough, over a big enough area that people can see it happening," he said.
Scientists have generally responded that it's impossible to say whether single events are caused by global warming, because of the influence of natural weather variability.
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However, that position has been shifting in recent months, as other studies too have concluded climate change is happening right before our eyes.
Hansen hopes his new study will shift people's thinking about climate change and goad governments into action. He wrote an op-ed piece that appeared online Friday in the Washington Post.
"There is still time to act and avoid a worsening climate, but we are wasting precious time," he wrote.
The science in Hansen's study is excellent "and reframes the question," said Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria in British Columbia who was a member of the Nobel Prize-winning international panel of climate scientists that issued a series of reports on global warming.
"Rather than say, 'Is this because of climate change?' That's the wrong question. What you can say is, 'How likely is this to have occurred with the absence of global warming?' It's so extraordinarily unlikely that it has to be due to global warming," Weaver said.
For years scientists have run complex computer models using combinations of various factors to see how likely a weather event would happen without global warming and with it. About 25 different aspects of climate change have been formally attributed to man-made greenhouse gases in dozens of formal studies. But these are generally broad and non-specific, such as more heat waves in some regions and heavy rainfall in others.
Another upcoming study by Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, links the 2010 Russian heat wave to global warming by looking at the underlying weather that caused the heat wave. He called Hansen's paper an important one that helps communicate the problem.
But there is bound to be continued disagreement. Previous studies had been unable to link the two, and one by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded that the Russian drought, which also led to devastating wildfires, was not related to global warming.
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White House science adviser John Holdren praised the paper's findings in a statement. But he also said it is true that scientists can't blame single events on global warming: "This work, which finds that extremely hot summers are over 10 times more common than they used to be, reinforces many other lines of evidence showing that climate change is occurring and that it is harmful."
Skeptical scientist John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville said Hansen shouldn't have compared recent years to the 1950s-1980s time period because he said that was a quiet time for extremes.
But Derek Arndt, director of climate monitoring for the federal government's National Climatic Data Center, said that range is a fair one and often used because it is the "golden era" for good statistics.
Granger Morgan, head of engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University, called Hansen's study "an important next step in what I expect will be a growing set of statistically-based arguments."
In a landmark 1988 study, Hansen predicted that if greenhouse gas emissions continue, which they have, Washington, D.C., would have about nine days each year of 95 degrees or warmer in the decade of the 2010s. So far this year, with about four more weeks of summer, the city has had 23 days with 95 degrees or hotter temperatures.
Hansen says now he underestimated how bad things would get.
And while he hopes this will spur action including a tax on the burning of fossil fuels, which emit carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas, others doubt it.
Science policy expert Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado said Hansen clearly doesn't understand social science, thinking a study like his could spur action. Just because people understand a fact that doesn't mean people will act on it, he said.
In an email, he wrote: "Hansen is pursuing a deeply flawed model of policy change, one that will prove ineffectual and with its most lasting consequence a further politicization of climate science (if that is possible!)."
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Leave a Comment:
Some people are cold blooded ....
They could use this warming up stuff .... "LOL"
It has taken over 50 years for most of the US population to realize that we are causing an impact on the environment and that this is a problem and we still have a bunch of flat earthers through out the country as well as in congress that are in denial. By the time the rest of the planet realizes how much this will affect our food supply and resources it may be to late. At my age I may have only another fifty years or so left to me and I will continue to do everything I can to make those in denial aware of what is happening and what they can do to lessen our impact on the planet but I feel for the children of our world who will inherit the planet we all helped destroy. As long as there are those in denial We will suffer from what has been wrought.
Roger, face it boy, you still believe the world is flat.
A Top Government Scientist is about as reliable as a Top Government Official.....check his pockets and you will find the money trail SUCKERS!!!!
bunch of idiots that are over paid the bible says there is not nothing happing that has not already hapened these idiots are looking at things in our life time not over the past 6000 years no worry!
It would be very hard for those who deny climate change to accept any sort of scientific facts when children in Christian schools are being taught the following (passage on electricity) from their textbooks.
"Electricity is a mystery. No one has ever observed it or heard it or felt it. We can see and hear and feel only what electricity does. We know that it makes light bulbs shine and irons heat up and telephones ring. But we cannot say what electricity is like.
We cannot even say where electricity comes from. Some scientists think that the sun may be the source of most electricity. Others think that the movement of the earth produces some of it. All anyone knows is that electricity seems to be everywhere and that there are many ways to bring it forth."
Now, if that is what kids are being taught in a science class in christian schools is it any wonder they don't understand where climate change is coming from? Or... anything truly scientific. It's sad. Welcome to the Dark Ages.
The accurate question is not is this global warming, but rather is this human caused or a natural phenomenon. I have yet to see a study that conclusively answers that question. Obviously this is global warming but we dont know for sure if its human caused or a natural cycle. Ice core samples have shown that fluctuations like these have happened MANY times long before humans ever existed.
The Problem is that because we do not know for sure whether this is human or nature caused we cant know if reducing or stopping our use of carbon based energy sources will have any positive effect. To stop using fossil fuels in the absence of a viable replacement energy source= reduction in quality of life. Why would we willingly reduce our quality of life without concrete proof that this is human made and not a natural phenomenon?
I think it has been shown by scientist that global warming is accelerated at an alarming pace. What ever is causing it, what would it hurt to clean up our environment?
Funny thing is if anyone can remember your history classes, This is a normal cycle of the Earth. It will do this no matter what we do to stop it. The Earth does just this to cleanse it self. Don't believe me? Look at how this Earth began and what is happening now. This is 100% normal.
The only reason any one wants to say its us that is doing this is money, more they talk to more money they get to study which means more money in there pockets.
Keep believing the slide of hand. Global warming my behind.
And if you are wrong? If I am wrong we end up with a cleaner environment, if your wrong? I would like it better if you were right. But just in case shouldn't we plan just a little ahead?
What can you really do. No matter what you do 10 others will undo it.
As far as being ready for it. well I would be looking for a higher place to live,seas will be higher then most land masses. again in the history books.
The sky is falling,The sky is falling! This is the biggest bunch of junk science I have ever seen.The fact that global warming is cyclic has been proved throughout history.
If you really believe that there is a signifigant increase in global warming as it relates to man and the industrial age I have a bridge for you to buy.
Where do you live? In the southwest? Consider buying some camels.
Junk science you say? I'm willing to bet you're not a scientist. Just a hunch.
There is NO amount of evidence that is enough for the true unbelievers above. Most are well aware that global warming is the result of Obama's policies and Kenyan birthplace.
These are the same geniuses who believe that Romney's hiding his taxes because he over-paid.
Ahh, nothing like witnessing the smug ignorance of deniers in the morning.
The accurate question is not is this global warming, but rather is this human caused or a natural phenomenon. I have yet to see a study that conclusively answers that question. Obviously this is global warming but we dont know for sure if its human caused or a natural cycle. Ice core samples have shown that fluctuations like these have happened MANY times long before humans ever existed.
The Problem is that because we do not know for sure whether this is human or nature caused we cant know if reducing or stopping our use of carbon based energy sources will have any positive effect. To stop using fossil fuels in the absence of a viable replacement energy source= reduction in quality of life. Why would we willingly reduce our quality of life without concrete proof that this is human made and not a natural phenomenon?
Carbon dioxide is an established greenhouse gas. This is a fact and has been known for a very long time. People have put carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Temperatures have been rising with rising carbon dioxide levels. Climate change projections from the 80's have been accurate. These are all facts!!! Its either us or our children that will have a reduced quality of life. I will gladly pay more taxes/whatever to ensure the world we leave for our kids is at least as good as it was before we were proverbially handed the reigns. The only question is, are you willing to hear the music, listen to the 98% of people who study this stuff and take action to make a better world for our children?
StevefromWI- I am sorry but you really sound like someone that has been drinking the company kool-aid.
You are correct that the projections from the 1980's studies are accurate. This is because the studies where skewed in order to produce the results that environmentalist organizations paid for.
If you truly believe that these evil energy sources are the core for these problems then you either don't understand anything about cyclic environmental change or your like the environmental sheep that just believe anything that is printed by some theoretical hack.
Just because there has been an increase in Carbon dioxide does not prove global warming as it is being presented. the amount of other greenhouse gases being expelled from our oceans alone exceed what ever gases 'we' may introduce.
I hope that you contiue your search for the cause and are able to prove that man has signifigantly made an impact but as up to now it has not been proven. It is only a hypothesis.
Please read Cpl. Jamison response. If you don't get that then you are certainly going to be a frustrated individual. Best of luck.
Studies say a lot of things. Most of them turn out to be wrong. You want the truth about global climate change? Global climate changes. It always has, and for most of the earth's history, even the vast majority of the time life has been here in force, the climate has been warmer than it is now. The past 10,000 years have been unseasonably cool, and we're just about overdue for another ice age.
Just for the sake of argument, let's assume the alarmists are correct. Let's say that the economic and industrial activity of a few hundred million in tthe Western world over the course of an average of a century and a half has changed the global climate. So what? There are three billion people living in rapidly industrializing economies like China and India that pollute without regard because they have to. They can't afford anything else. Their governments didn't understand economics and now they're playing catch-up to try to feed themselves and provide for their families as they progress up the ladder of economic development.
Given that, the change is inevitable, and we're wasting money trying to prevent it? Screw that. Full steam ahead and damn the torpedoes! We need to get the government off of companies and let them generate as much wealth, goods, capital, and immigrating industry as possible so we can afford to weather the change. We're already a large safe haven for the world's capital, can you imagine how much business we'd get if we were as economically free as Switzerland or Hong Kong? Everyone would want to base everything here. After it inevitably happens, we'll talk about doing expensive crap to prevent more of it using our huge industrial and financial base that we got from having no taxes and no anti-warming regs.
Now, after considering that, here's the thing: Scientists know this. Governments know this. They're smart people. However, they are people, and just like the billions of poor workers in industrializing economies, they are likely to do whatever they need to in order to make a life for themselves. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy or anything, far from it, but nobody funds scientists who find that there isn't a problem, and nobody votes for administrations that aren't trying to fix something they care about. They believe what they want to believe.
A good scientist will tell you that we have no idea how global climate even works, much less how it changes or how we would go about changing it, short of letting Cobra Commander build the stupid weather-dominator for once.
Speaking of stuff from the 80's, anyone remember that ozone damage that was going to melt the ice caps and kill us all? That crap went on for a decade and then some before it was proven that the holes were closing. We still don't know why either of those things happened, but it wasn't because of the ban on CFC's in a handful of nations. China emits more CFC's per annum than we ever did, but those holes aren't showing any correlation at all.
Remember all the bad chemicals, nuclear waste, groundwater, impending death of oil, and everything else that was going to doom us? Love canal is fine, Chernobyl is fine, Japan is fine, the oil industry only ever finds more oil every year, and failing that, they make it out of different stuff or find ways to not use it. It's all fine.
So.....presto! Global Warming! We don't know what it is, but we'll be damned if that's going to stop us from making a living off of it. It's science, because science is the science of taking a phenomenon or conclusion and then cramming the research into it in just such a way that it fits. Mostly. If you don't look too closely.
Deej-2646286
There is NO amount of evidence that is enough for the true unbelievers above. Most are well aware that global warming is the result of Obama's policies and Kenyan birthplace.
Apparently you favor ignorance over intelligence.
Here we go again with the "Global Warming". Scientist have studied the earth for years, know that the earth has gone through many changes over the past gazillion years and they still act surprised that we are going through more changes. Where did they get their education, Whatamatta U.? The earth is going through a warming trend, next thing you know it will go through a cooling trend. It's called natural cycles and we can't do a thing to change it, therefore, we need to learn to adapt to the changes like all the lifeforms before us did. If we can't adapt, we go extinct. Go ahead and park all your cars, stop heating your homes, ban all industry, never ever cause any kind of pollutants to enter the air and I would just bet "Global Warming" would still occur.
In the famous words of Clint Eastwood: Improvise, Adapt, Overcome.
Learn to live with what Mother Earth throws at you or go by the way of the Dinosaurs.
Its not going to be us this effects, its going to be our children. They will have smug people like you who claim to know more about climate than climatologists to thank.
I'm not being smug, just realistic. I do everything I can to lessen my impact on the earth that sustains us. I don't have air conditioning in my home. Do you? I don't use unnecessary items like paper towels, paper plates and plastic containers. Do you? I don't stay on the road all the time. I only go out when it is absolutely necessary. What about you? I do everything I can to give back, such as planting trees and preventing erosion. What have you done for the environment that sustains us? I will take what Mother Natures throws at me and I will do all I can to protect her. Maybe others should consider doing the same.
I want all you environmentalists to know...after im finished drinking my water,i will take my recyclable bottle and throw it in the trash,hoping it makes it to some trash heap,and remains there forever...thats my hope..and at this moment,i want you to worry ,for the rest of the day,i want you to fret and sweat over what that bottle might do to the ecosystem...and then realize,i will do this every day for a week..Oh the Humanity!!..or maybe..Oh the Plasticity!!!
If we have a hot summer it's global warming, er uh I mean climate change and if it's a cold winter it's global warming, dammit I mean climate change. I guess I better go buy me a Government Motors Chevy Volt which is powered by electricity which comes from coal fired power plants and let us not forget about those bovine gases that are destroying the ozone too. It's probably President Bushes fault anyway.
As worldIdeaman stated... this is just another part of the Earth's cycle. We have seasononal changes such as winter and summer. Cold and Hot.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vostok_Petit_data.svg
Last 400,000 years showing those hot and cold cycles.
Do I deny that we are having an impact on this planet? No.
But not to the degree that people like Hansen are saying we are. Hansen, you are a quack looking for attention.
C02, C3PO, R2D2, mean time over in the EU they are not having a real nice hot summer, it's wet cold.
This is Mid-West warming.
But if you take time to look, you see the earth has been heating up for the past 12,000 years now.
Or if you back to when the earth was a ball of ice, then it's 100's of millions of years of global warming.
Yep the increased Solar activity does kick the Global warming issue dont it, now if they only knew what they were talking about, just look at the sun
Kevin C-752389
"Why is the temperature also rising on Mercury, Venus, and Mars? Hmm, could it be solar-related, or do the Martians have oil too?"
When you use a little common sense then you would realize that the Earth's current warming trend is NOT due to solar influences. Should this be the case then EVERY object in our solar system would be experiencing a similar warming. Since every object in our solar system is NOT experiencing a warming trend then our current warming trend CANNOT be simply a solar influence. .... See what happens when you apply a little critical thinking?
Critical thinking is too hard. It is much easier to surrender to propaganda.
you know,youre pretty good,knowing that EVERY object in the solar system is not heating up....thats quite the talent..now seriously,do you see how absurd your comment is?
must be true, the man who has nothing to gain by verfying his own argument has spoken.
Physicists can't explain how a bubble forms and yet you are going to save the planet. Bwahahahahahahaha!
Those in denial that global warming exist, or is man made are the same people that are against anything and everything. The me,me,me of the planet that protect the very rich on ever subject. What if the Koch brothers had to really find a job? Coal, and oil has served its purpose it is time for the planet to move forward and to stop dumping junk into the very air that we breath, nothing less is acceptable. Screw big oil and big coal and lets move on to clean renewable energy.
If the deniers are right and global warming does not exist, so be it. But If I am right perhaps we can extend our lives on this planet. I don't much care what it cost. What we get in any case is a cleaner environment to raise our children.
roger6969, and the earth is 6,000 years old and flat. Just make sure you don't sail off the edge of the earth.
Bite me roger, with as much respect as you give me. The fact is if your wrong and I am right the worst thing about it is we get a cleaner environment to live in. If I am wrong the worst thing we get is a cleaner environment. Stopping or limiting the use of fossil fuels will hurt no one except the rich SOB's that fund your junk researcher. So as I said, bite me.
and roger you are a slimy little conservative pond scum.
If you can't breath roger, nothing else matters. STFU. You and your ilk are scabs on the sore.
Roger, not that it will make any difference to your single diget IQ. Go to National Geographic website and look at the pictures about global warming. Of course the National geographic is a hot bed of liberal homosexual activity. But even a flat earther like you ought to understand the pictures.
and you don't drink the conservative, big business koolaid. Right. Sounds like there is a little bourbon in yours. Personally my feeling is you suck. If you are wrong you wipe out the entire planet fast, If I am wrong we get a cleaner environment. Will you admit you are wrong when you are standing knee deep in salt water in Nevada? And Roger you still need to bite my you sorry azz conservative.
That is what I thought you would say about a publication that has nothing to gain from reporting on global warming, and the resulting climate change. I still say you need to STFU you IQ is showing every time you post. Every time you post you poo poo.
John I might be wrong but it seems to me you are posting your comments on a computer.
You know the one that was built using fossil fuels,and was shipped using fossil fuels, and the one you probably picked up in your car made ,shipped and propelled by fossil fuels.
Oh yeah,the electricity used to allow you're idiotic posts produced by fossil fuels. Hmmmm, must hate all those conveniences produced by fossil fuels.
Just like all the other feel good folks. I want to stop global warming,environmental impacts ,as long as I can have it my way. Sory can't have you cake and eat it too. I mean how are you going to cook it?
There's already too many people on this planet. Stop breeding!
We Americans have a huge and I mean HUGE problem. Uncovering the truth is very difficult when corporations have something to benefit/gain. We must stop listening to Big Government/ Big Business and start thinking for ourselves. The so called green movement is as crooked as Eric Holder. Be very careful what info you decide to buy into. Balance is the key to a free society not extreme views or hypothesis by one group of individuals.
Here is a question to raise at the next family dinner. Are huge corporations imbedded with the American Government good for the American people?
And the so called fossil fuel industry is a capt. of ethical practices. See rogers post. Has oil and coal written all over it.
Roger you are a useless tool. No brain, no pain, right roger?
Oil companies just want to make money they dont want people to use green energy
Roger, maybe he would like the earth to live long enough for him to grow up. Maybe you should go discover there is a curvature in our planet.