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Subscribe to RSSThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration releases its winter weather outlook. NBC's Danielle Leigh reports.
The western half of the U.S. can expect a warmer-than-average winter, but the eastern half is a big question mark, government forecasters said Thursday. They blamed the murky crystal ball on an "indecisive El Nino" -- the fact that it has not formed even though their models said it would.
"We really haven't seen that before," Mike Halpert, deputy director of the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, told reporters. "Development abruptly halted last month."
El Ninos have been tracked for 60 years, during which 20 have formed, according to the center, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Experts rely on monitoring El Nino, and its counterpart La Nina, because of their influence on the jet stream and storms across the U.S. An El Nino is a periodic weather cycle that warms part of the Pacific Ocean, thus shifting rainfall and influencing the strength and course of the jet stream.
Why it did not form is a mystery, Halpert said, adding that while an El Nino "could still develop," for now the chances are slim.
If an El Nino does develop, it could mean below-average temperatures across the South, Halpert said.
NOAA
Data also suggest that this winter will push 2012 over the top as the warmest year in the U.S. since recordkeeping began in 1895.
The first nine months of 2012 were the warmest of any year on record in the contiguous United States, and this has been the third-hottest summer on record.
"It is likely that 2012 will be the warmest of the 118-year record for the contiguous United States," Deke Arndt of NOAA's Climatic Data Center told reporters.
In the winter outlook, the East Coast falls under the "equal chance" category -- it has an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation, NOAA said in a statement announcing the outlook.
An exception is Florida, where chances are that all but the Panhandle will be colder than normal.
NOAA
As for the ongoing drought, most of those areas "are unlikely to see much relief," NOAA stated.
El Nino and La Nina are not the only factors at play, but they are the easiest to forecast several months out since the others are much shorter term.
"El Nino and La Nina can play a key role in winter weather patterns in North America," Weather Channel meteorologist Stu Ostro noted, "but their importance can also be overstated, and in each of the past three winters other factors have overwhelmed their influence."
Minnesota's Wild Mountain resort made snow and laid claim to being the first ski area to open this season in the U.S. NBCNews.com's Dara Brown reports.
The biggest influence in those years has been the so-called North Atlantic Oscillation. A change in the pattern caused it to push the jet stream farther south, bringing more cold air than normal into the northern U.S. from the Arctic.
Skiiers and snowboarders will be among those hoping for more help from the oscillation this year. The ski season did start this month in two places -- a rope tow at Minnesota's Wild Mountain on Oct. 7 and a lift at Colorado's Arapahoe Basin on Wednesday -- but both areas relied on manmade snow.
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[sarcasm]Let's get back to the important topics please msnbc. Who cares if our land isn't able to produce the crops we need to support our population in the near future, we don't have to cross that bridge yet because we can just walk accross the dry riverbed after it happens. [/sarcasm]
I'm with you, River.
Crap. The last thing Colorado needs is another warm winter. At least it's not predicting a dry one.
"The sky is falling! The sky is falling!" Give me a break. My growing season will expand, thank you very much!
Here we go again. All I know is that our weathermen here in Maine have been reporting below normal temperatures for a few years running. So we can't have both global warming and cooling at the same time. It's just not possible. I've been around long enough to have seen the people decrying global warming flip-flop every 15 years to global cooling. And, yes, I am over 45. so that makes at least 3 times it has happened.
How long has the earth been here? and they have studied the climate for 117 years? they need mental help.
I also read a story recently that samples show that the weather was warmer then now in 1408 about the time Eric the Red settled in Greenland. do you think its possible that weather can fluctuate, I wouldn't worry so much about warming its the cooling that will get you.
The sky is falling "Global Warming" predictions set back environmental causes by at least years if not decades. They cant accurately predict an El Nino with their models but all the rest is supposed to happen?
Fact, Man is screwing up the environment and that needs to change,and it needs to change now. Quit the fear tactics trying to predict what cannot be predicted and if you are going to use science make sure it is solid science.
Oh great, so now who's gonna kill all the extra spiders, mosquito's, and..spiders that should have frozen in the winter!! I rely heavily on cold weather to kill them off so they don't come back tripled in amount in the spring/summer! Not to mention, the poor polar bears are in some serious need of ice. Please mother nature, ignore everything we have done in the past 50 years, just chill out! :)
El Nino and La Nina were headed this way but the Border Patrol started shooting at them so the turned back.
Pollution will be the killer....but I guess the media can't find any polluters.
It's still in the 90's in Tucson - and the power company wants to raise my AC bill again...what the hell do they do with all that money we send them?
lets see does not science tell us that one good volcano erupting would make everything us evil humans do a fart in the breeze? yes we need to take care of our planet, do our best not to pollute (someone might tell gore that when he's flying in his big jet all over the country playing the role of chicken little), but unless you are ready to join our friends in the amish community your just as much to blame as anyone else.
No worries, the government can stop the sky from falling. Only the government can fix this and we should all be on board to save our endangered environment. Get on board for tax increases across the board for all Americans. We can rely on our government to rationally and reasonably formulate plans of action with the increased taxes to save the environment. This is critical. All citizens should be willing to pay a minimum of 50% taxes with no deductions. THINK OF THE CHILDREN. The planet will love you. Those silly republican haters of everything, thieves in the night, murderers, liers, cheats, child molesters, car thieves, petty thieves, kidnappers, racists, misogynists, killers of wildlife at night, fishermen with no licenses, will do their best to defeat this plan and destroy the planet thinking they can make some money and laugh at us. Overcome! They can throw up roadblocks but the true believers should get out their check books and start now!
Be sure to lock your car, there is probably a republican lurking out there!
Yur funny
I like weather forecasters, they're wrong most of the time..
Temperture? Did the "a" melt? Hmm.
Won't matter. We'll all be dead on the first day of winter or there about. So say the Mayan "experts." My calendar has ended Dec. 31 for as long as I have been alive. Yet here I sit, reguritating nonsense.
Bottomline, it's going to be winter soon. By my calculations, in about two months and a couple of days. Everybody run and hide.
Hehe that too. I know people don't want to hear it because it's such a fascinating idea that the world will end on December 21, 2012, but the date holds little to no significance at all. The researches that deciphered the Mayan calendar have known for a long time that it is just a portion of the calendar and in no way the end of the calendar, and I quote, "December 21, 2012 is about as significant to the Mayan calendar as the last word on page 500 of a 10,000 page book."
The researchers who discovered the other glyph further clarifying the overall rendering of the Mayan calendar have tried to get that information to the general public with limited success. The new glyph has been rendered within the pericope identified to be translated among the calendar dates as "Psych!!!"
The Mayan that was supposed to make the new calendar failed to show up for work, some say its got something to do with some killing spree some Spaniard went on about 4 or 5 hundred years ago, don't worry we are looking for a new batch of Mayan priest and a new calendar.
Meanwhile here in Denver we had our first snowfall a week or so ago, and have had the first freeze. But today we are enjoying a Native American summer.
that is crazy it almost sounds like the weather is unpredictable! IT SOUNDS LIKE GASP CLIMATE CHANGE!!!
I can predict how the winter wil be in the East! It all depends on weather or not I purchase and place snow tires on my car! Last year I did and it snow exactly once! The minute I took them off, it snowed the next day!
Right now I have no plans to put on winter snow tires... Skiiers... your in luck!
Ha! This resonates with my stock mkt touch!
I don't put my snow tires on until the first snow and then only if I've been stranded in a ditch.
People still use snow tires? whats wrong with all season radials, damn I live in western Montana and run the same tires year round, that and my last several vehicles have been front wheel drives. no studes no walnut shell, I get around just fine, just slow down get your foot off the brake and watch the throttle, piece of cake. with all this global warming why are you worried about snow tires? @AG99 don't go in the ditch and it won't be a problem
People still use snow tires? whats wrong with all season radials, damn I live in western Montana and run the same tires year round, that and my last several vehicles have been front wheel drives. no studes no walnut shell, I get around just fine, just slow down get your foot off the brake and watch the throttle, piece of cake. with all this global warming why are you worried about snow tires? @AG99 don't go in the ditch and it won't be a problem
I predict we will have a Winter.
Good luck with that. We haven't had a proper winter on the front range in a while.
I can predict its going to change allot.
Where I live, the sun shines 365 days a year, but it is behind clouds most of the days.
Seattle?
Really? And yet you insist that you can predict the temperature of the planet over the next 100 years?
its not up to anybody but the creator
although man has contributed in the form
of greed by exploiting the enviornmernt
the maker still decides the outcome
My faith side agrees with you completely, if its Gods will it will happen no matter what.
My science side says we dont have enough data or knowledge to know exactly what will happen.
Both sides say trashing our environment is just plain sinful/wrong.
so it is going to be the usual forecast for winter in the east. it could, rain, snow, sleet, hail, be gusty, be calm, be cloudy or sunny. in other words the national weather service is funded by millions of tax dollars and they still cannot predict the weather. so why have it?
the 'weathermen' were more accurate in their predictions 40 years ago
You're right there Tom...that's because many of them would actually go out side and look at the clouds and feel the changes in the air. They didn't use Super Doppler Radar III and all the scopes and gadgets. Geez, the Indians did even better way back when......
That's true the weather reports 40 years ago were more accurate then they are today, today all that matters is the hemlines on the skirt.
I thought about putting out a video where every day is beautiful and the scary part is allot of viewers would believe it. scarier yet these same people vote.
I could be a weather man, if its NBC you make up anything you want, if its FOX you toss a coin, if its ABC you call someone else and ask. for a six didgit figure who cares about how you get the info, I remember as a young person in Minneapolis back in the 50's there was a station that was always 100% correct they had a weather window, the guy would look out the window and tell you what he saw, it worked!
Boomer and Dave
Their forecasting was accurate due to the "Weather Rock", they kept outside - If the rock was dry it meant a sunny day. If the Rock was wet, then rain was predicted. If the rock was white in winter, that meant snow! If they could not see the weather rock - that meant night time and/or fog. LOL
I have come to the conclusion I could be a weatherman or help-desk clerk. Chances of rain today are about 50 50 and this winter it might be cold. Or have you rebooted yet, if that does not clear it up, we can reimage your pc.........:>
You may have something there, Mike. Don't let it get out that you created thousands of jobs all by yourself.
I was going to post something but, I just figure why bother. The weather will do what it does regardless what we mere specks think anyway.
I know in Idaho an El Nino year means lots of snow. Even though the winter may not hit -20 this year it will mean lots of water for the farmers. The last one we had my dogs kept running on my roof because my yard had at least 10 feet of snow.
Don't worry, La Nina is just being held up by unseasonably warm water at the North Pole. It will be here in time to keep you from having to shovel much.
That's terrible when you have to shovel the roof for more then one reason. nothing worse then brown icicle's . Idaho elevation 2100 ft no snow elevation 2150 ft 10' of snow, anything above that is foot per foot. I lived at Hauser lake and was buried drive a half mile and nothing. was like flying from Anchorage to San Fransisco.
This is just one more thing on a growing list of things that signal climate change. This planet is in big trouble and we don't seem to give one damn about it. All Romney could repeat over and over again last Tuesday night was OIL, COAL, GAS.
That man is a f******fool. Here's what he's really saying: Climate change, mountain top removal, acidification of the oceans, plant and animal extinctions, drought, fire, massive storm systems, compromised food supply, disease and suffering. BUT since humans, or maybe just the rich ones, are exempt from all of this then by all means, let's blow up mountains, pollute everything, use precious fresh water to frack and drill, baby, drill. God forbid we turn to alternate clean energy. And when this planet is a smoldering, stinking dead mess, and if we are still around to see it, we can look at pictures of then and say, "Wasn't it a beautiful Earth?"
Makes me want to puke.
How can this prediction signal climate change? By what mechanism? Your fear mongering is pointless because you have nothing to back it up.
Sadly all Obama can spout is about electric cars saving the planet even though they are charged by coal burning electric plants that spew far more damaging elements into the atmosphere. Therefore they are worse than gas automobiles.
@Sialia you are right there are to damn many people on this rock, that includes you. with or without people the world will eventually go down again. its almost harvest time.
Creazy Pete,ask your Creator if the children in Africa can have some rain,so they don't died of malnutrition and thirst .If he's in control of everything a little rain don't cost much,and thousand of children wont died after terrible pains.Or maybe everything is just a man created way to scared poor ignorant people.
If you want to talk to crazy pete, it helps if you use the reply button under his post.
Shhhhhhh! If the oil companies hear this, they'll raise the price of heating oil so they will still make their high profits! Right now, the cost per gallon is more than the highest price I paid last season.
Thank Obama.
yep, I am sure BO will claim he "personally" built the weather forecast of the winter of 2012/13 to be exactly? as predicted - 50-50 chance of the winter weather for the East coast/DC areas.
So... the weather forecast is...
it might be cold this winter, or it might be just regular, or it might be warm this winter.
We should all feel fortunate to have such learned experts to really nail this down for us.
in any event, of course it is all the result of climate change and evil exploitation of the environment!
Im sure Obama and his bourgeoisie will see to it that the weather
complies with the party agenda.
This October I have seen 2 raccoons with very thick coats of fur. Also someone reported a skunk was seen with a thick coat. Are these predictors of a cold severe winter for central Ohio?
I grew up in southern Wisconsin and that was one way the old timers used to predict the coming winter.
If I remember correctly it was about 50-50.
Cut open a persimmon and see what shape is inside. A spoon means lots of snow and a knife or fork shape means dry and warmer than usual. Also, keep an eye on caterpillars. If most of their coats are dark brown and black, it will be a colder winter. If their coats are light brown and blond, it will be a mild winter. If you send the dog out to use the bathrool and he comes in wet, it is raining. (probably)
Yep, you people in Ohio are really gonna get it this winter, especially if you vote for Obama :)
Killington, VT opened last week for a few days too! There was snow up there! Don't forget the great skiing in the northeast
They predicted el nino would be here and now they say it won't so if they were wrong two months ago what moron would believe them now. We on the west had the most snow in 50 years followed the very next year by the least in 56 years. I'm gonna go ahead and leave it up to God, and of course NBC news.
here we go with the end of the world again..................zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
ever think all the crap we got plugged in is causing this?
Interesting, if that is the cause do you have some alternative power and Internet source?
If current weather patterns hold, the Southwest is going to continue in a chronic drought mode. Raising cattle in Texas and nearby states is going to become rather problematic. One thing that we might want to consider is creating more water storage through dams and the like in order to store up what rainfall does occur. This might make it possible to use irrigation. Since part of the prediction for a warming climate is that some locations will get more rain than normal, perhaps we should be looking at methods for transferring some of that excess rain to locations that need more water. I think they call this infrastructure building. We may find it will become necessary if our agricultural system is going to continue to produce food in sufficient quantities.
Since the last cycle of climate change (wiki - "Little Ice Age" 1400 -1900ish) lasted almost 500 years... it might be easier to adapt our agriculture and manufacturing choices instead of trying to change/adapt nature... just because one area has traditionally grown a certain crop or raised certain livestock doesnt mean it always has to... just as typically factory/manufcturing areas need to stay that way.... Move the northern factories to the drying out (if it goes that way) southern areas and plant crops in the now warmer northern areas. We can use our brains and technology many ways. As the saying goes "there's more than one way to skin a cat" until the climate cycle swings back the other way again after afew hundred years.
Tommy-2029182,
To bad you make so much sense. Most likely you will be attacked. Our government is not one to make these changes; they believe they can force nature to change by controlling what the population does. The free market is smart enough to make these adjustments and thrive if allowed the freedom to do so.
The problem with that underemployed, is the endless environmental impact studies to get all the permits. Then the endless battles in court to get the land. There is also the minor problem of prior water rights.
Did you know that in some places it is ILLEGAL to catch the rain and snow melt coming off your roofs instead of letting the water run off to the street or ground. I ain't making this up!
Nice weather all year long why complain ? Alot of people complain way to much! Alot of crazy people too. lazy people sucking of the working people! I see you MFKER's ! we all see you dirt sucking 47%ers, Hey lets go to America were we can get everything handed to us be cause the government is full of IDIOTS. Then we can act like animals and ruin this once beautiful country! Well if you are offended and all fired up by what i wrote GET A JOB! Contribute to the USA and our Economy wont be so F-ed up! I should run for president get this country back to the way it was and how it should be when people worked! And people wanna cry over weather! i got my boots on!
Maybe, sir, you would be better served if you slung that BS at the wealthy folks who keep sending the jobs to China where they get cheap slave labor for $1.80 an hour. Take a closer look at Foxxconn. That's the manufacturing plant that creates your Iphone for Apple. Their employees live in barracks on site so they don't need a good wage to pay for housing. I would even wager that there is a company store that sells them food and other products on credit. Further indenturing them to the company. It has been so demoralizing to their labor that they had to put up catch nets to keep those people from commiting suicide.
The communist Chinese government has been waging an economic war against the USA for a number of years now by stealing intellectual property for the sole purpose of undercutting our manufacturing base on everything from tires to auto parts and electronics.
Now why don't you do something to stem this tidal wave of jobs being shipped to China by creating some jobs for us to do. But, you won't because the Chinese spies will steal it away from you and run your business into the dirt.
As for our weather, Mother Nature is just pushing the reset button on us. Adapt and survive or Momma will plow us under. You don't mess with Mother Nature.
It's going to get cold this winter, just wait and see. All my intuitions tell me that, even though it's hard to believe now. It might come suddenly so be prepared, just in case.
I dont like cold weather... but I dont like insect and vermin infestations even more...
Hope it gets cold enough to kill off alot of the pests , then warms back up quickly