Climate-changing methane 'rapidly destabilizing' off East Coast, study finds

NOAA

In this visualization, the Gulf Stream is seen as the dark red current coming into the Atlantic from the Gulf of Mexico.

A changing Gulf Stream off the East Coast has destabilized frozen methane deposits trapped under nearly 4,000 square miles of seafloor, scientists reported Wednesday. And since methane is even more potent than carbon dioxide as a global warming gas, the researchers said, any large-scale release could have significant climate impacts.

Temperature changes in the Gulf Stream are "rapidly destabilizing methane hydrate along a broad swathe of the North American margin," the experts said in a study published Wednesday in the peer-reviewed journal Nature.

Using seismic records and ocean models, the team estimated that 2.5 gigatonnes of frozen methane hydrate are being destabilized and could separate into methane gas and water.


It is not clear if that is happening yet, but that methane gas would have the potential to rise up through the ocean and into the atmosphere, where it would add to the greenhouse gases warming Earth.

The 2.5 gigatonnes isn't enough to trigger a sudden climate shift, but the team worries that other areas around the globe might be seeing a similar destabilization. 

USGS

Methane hydrate samples

"It is unlikely that the western North Atlantic margin is the only area experiencing changing ocean currents," they noted. "Our estimate ... may therefore represent only a fraction of the methane hydrate currently destabilizing globally."

The wider destabilization evidence, co-author Ben Phrampus told NBC News, includes data from the Arctic and Alaska's northern slope in the Beaufort Sea.

And it's not just under the seafloor that methane has been locked up. Some Arctic land area are seeing permafrost thaw, which could release methane stored there as well.

An expert who was not part of the study said it suggests that methane could become a bigger climate factor than carbon dioxide.

"We may approach a turning point" from a warming driven by man-made carbon dioxide to a warming driven by methane, Jurgen Mienert, the geology department chair at Norway's University of Tromso, told NBC News.

"The interactions between the warming Arctic Ocean and the potentially huge methane-ice reservoirs beneath the Arctic Ocean floor point towards increasing instability," he added.

For thousands of years, permafrost has trapped Siberia's carbon-rich soil, a compost of Ice Age plant and animal remains. But global warming is melting the permafrost and exposing the soil, causing highly flammable methane to seep out. NBC's Jim Maceda reports.

He also noted, however, that "one of the big unknowns is the magnitude of rapid methane escape from the ocean floor, and how natural filter systems react and affect the future ocean, its environment and the climate."

Relate: Thawing Arctic permafrost is releasing methane

Another unknown is what caused the Gulf Stream changes, said Phrampus, an earth sciences PhD candidate at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas.

"Multiple events can play a factor, such as changing sea level or an addition of cold/fresh water from the north," Phrampus said, adding he was hopeful that the changes might be "reversible under their own influence."

But, he added, "we need more data to resolve this, and we are currently investigating this process."

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I'm sorry to hear that the gulf stream has altered course.The tipping point has been reached when the ocean's currents have been altered and the earth has started it's fail safe cycle.Stopping all non renewables now might buy us a little more time but it won't stop the earths cycle that we've begun.Just get ready to hunker down and to be on your own for survival.

  • 1 vote
Reply#182 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:38 PM EDT

"We" didn't have that big a hand in it.

But you are right.

It cannot be stopped.

  • 1 vote
#182.1 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:49 PM EDT
Reply

Another scare tactic by the looney left. So it happens. Learn how to deal with it in a way that is adult. ADAPT! Don't just say 1. Stop driving cars; 2. do not burn coal; 3. Turn of the air conditioner; 4. Yes, Man IS the cause. There are too many of us. That is the problem. My idea: Keep North America for us. Stop immigration. We can let the rest of the world explode. We will be fine. Changes your paradigm, right?

    Reply#183 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:38 PM EDT

    We can't "keep out" climate change, and it will just increase the pressure for immigration. How are we going to deal with millions of climate refugees?

      #183.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:26 AM EDT
      Reply

      Actually, ocean ecosystem changing is not due to atomspheric CO2, because our air pressure and air CO2 composition hasn't changed much. Ocean methane increase is a sign of something is killing the ocean photosynthesis algaes. Decreasing photosynthesis algae population reduces ocean oxygen content, which increase anaerobic bacteria growth and produce more methane. Things that killing the photosynthesis algae include biohazardous waste dumped into the water by human, such as the antibiotic in the hand soap, which prevents cell wall formation of the algae. This is just one example, any kind of biohazardous dumping would alter ocean ecosystem, and eventually could affect atomsphere.

        Reply#184 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:39 PM EDT

        Quite frankly, I'm going to live it up and do what I want from now on and screw the future. China overtook the US to become the worlds biggest producer of CO2 and they've said their economy comes first (hence they have never signed any agreements to reduce CO2). When you look at the numbers, global CO2 emissions have been going up despite every attempt at reducing them. China's output grew 9% in 2011, driving the output to a record 31.6 Gigatonnes. And this is with the US and Western economies in a funk due to the recession and recovery. Of those economies start growing, watch out as this number will explode! Plus, even if we somehow managed to do ZERO emissions in a year, it takes time for the environment to settle on a new temperature. So all the existing CO2 in the air will continue to drive up global temps for at least the next 30 years no matter what we do. Once you figure this in with the continued growth, you can come to only one conclusion. There is no stopping this train wreck from happening. Heck the train may wreck even faster than we suspect as once the methane starts being released (by temps that will keep on rising even if we stopped producing any more CO2), global averages will sky rocket. So, time to enjoy life while you can. As it's not going to last much longer in it's present state.

          Reply#185 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:41 PM EDT

          We could slow it down, and maybe avoid the worst effects. But apparently we are not going to. At least it will be interesting to watch.

            #185.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:28 AM EDT
            Reply

            Some planets are completely a diamond. Interested in going Republicans? I'm sure we can collectively fund such a one way trip very quickly.

              Reply#186 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:41 PM EDT

              Wasn't "acid rain" going to kill us all? SARS? Global cooling? DDT? DDT is a great example: DDT saved millions of 3rd world people from various insect born (Malaria, etc) tropical diseases. Millions. But it turned out that DDT was harmful to a few bird species. So the death parade is back on for the humans, and the birds are looking strong. I know PETA is happy, but the deaths are on the hands of "anti-pollution" activists armed with junk science.

              Methane? Really? Vegetarians produce approximately 9 times the methane of carnivores per 1000. P U

                Reply#187 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:48 PM EDT

                Acid rain didn't kill us because we we enacted laws to decrease sulfur emissions.

                • 1 vote
                #187.1 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:59 PM EDT

                Of course it was those very sulfur dioxides in the atmosphere which reflected heat and were responsible for the reduced global temps up through about 1980.

                  #187.2 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:57 AM EDT
                  Reply

                  Damn it George Bush!

                    Reply#188 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:51 PM EDT

                    FREE PANGEA!

                    Stop man-made continental drift!

                      Reply#189 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:51 PM EDT

                      This is the reason mankind is reaching out via the space programs to leave this planet!!

                      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCgaJtUDbIE

                        Reply#190 - Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:52 PM EDT

                        To all you bed wetters foaming at the mouth about the Earth's ultimate demise, please turn off your computers, TVs, refrigerators and anything else running on electricity (you know, the magic stuff coming from the wall socket that's produced by BURNING something) and stop being sniveling hypocrites. Get off the grid and STFU. You're all dismissed.

                          Reply#191 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:00 AM EDT

                          Global warming has been happening between ice ages for a long, long time. When this period of global warming ends we will begin a slow temperature decline into the next ice age. How will we stop the ice age? Burn more coal and oil?

                          This may upset all the environmental nut jobs out there, but carbon dioxide is actually good for the rain forests!

                            Reply#192 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:10 AM EDT

                            Hey old man, get your head out of your rear. The rainforests are nearly gone.

                            • 1 vote
                            #192.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:59 AM EDT

                            OUPharmD, take away the carbon dioxide that plants breath in and what is left of the rain forests will disappear quicker. If you really want to stop global warming find a way to reduce the heat output of the star the Earth orbits around, and get ready to be buried in ice.

                              #192.2 - Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:29 AM EDT
                              Reply

                              It's the natural order of things. We humans are fleas on the Earth's back side. Some say we are in the beginning stages of the next ice age? I will keep smoking cigarettes and be LONG gone before it happens.

                                Reply#193 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:14 AM EDT

                                We need to build another 108 nuclear power plants in the USA and go green...

                                • 1 vote
                                #193.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:40 AM EDT

                                Yep, we need to go green in the U.S. and let the rest of the world explode burning fossil fuels..China is building and putting online TWO coal fired power plants, EVERY SINGLE WEEK..But here in the U.S. we cant burn coal anymore cause it too "dirty"..What friggin good does it do us to try and save the planet when no one else seems to give a big fat rats a$$??..NEWS FLASH..That pollution from all that coal burning in China will eventually come to us....10 thousand years ago there was a glacier almost 2 miles thick that covered North America down to the southern end of Ohio..Ask all those people that live in Michigan, and Minnesota, Indiana and Ohio, if they would rather have 2 miles of ice over thier heads or a little global warming..Burn coal, smoke cigaretts, leave the lights on, turn up the air conditioner and enjoy life..The people living today will be LONG dead before "Climate change" will really put a damper on thier life styles..

                                  #193.2 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:42 AM EDT
                                  Reply

                                  Several years ago, the same claim was made about methane deposits in the Arctic. It was trumpeted in the media as well. Doom and gloom sells copy. Last year another scientist surveyed the sites of Methane outgassing and discovered that the outgassing had been occuring for thousands of years. Thereby proving that we didn't have anything to do with it. That never made the media because it's not gloom and it doesn't sell to not scare people. This is the same story recycled with a different location. Why should the outcome be any different?

                                  • 1 vote
                                  Reply#194 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:16 AM EDT

                                  The cited Nature article states that this has been building up for over 5,000 years.

                                  that doesn't mean we aren't making it worse.

                                  see, both could be happening.

                                  it's not a one or the other kind of thing.

                                  like sugar and coffee.

                                  it's not sugar OR coffee.

                                  you can have both.

                                  you probably will.

                                    #194.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:06 AM EDT
                                    Reply

                                    Stupid observation: For 20 or 30 years we have been told that hydrocarbons was going to kill everyone on the planet by eroding the ozone, so we have cut back on carbon emmissions, Now we are told that it won't be hydrocarbons that kill us it will be methane that erodes the ozone and kills us. Oh, by the way, when will this end come to us. Just wondering.

                                    • 1 vote
                                    Reply#195 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:28 AM EDT

                                    I think you are getting your denials mixed up.

                                      #195.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:30 AM EDT
                                      Reply

                                      Will some one tell these "climate change" Dido's that this is the way the "Earth" does it. Man kind does not or can not do anything to change or fix it. IT IS A CYCLE that happens. Check your history. Look WAY BACK...................................................................................................

                                      • 1 vote
                                      Reply#196 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:35 AM EDT

                                      How many lakes and other ecosystems have been destroyed because 1 company or even 1 person dumped something in that they shouldn't have. You don't need to look "WAY BACK" to be able to see that it doesn't take many people to destroy large areas. There are 7 billion people on this planet. Do you really believe that we can't affect it? Have you ever seen Southern California, or any big city for that matter? That smokey haze isn't natural....

                                      • 1 vote
                                      #196.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:57 AM EDT

                                      Except that the science says otherwise. silly science.

                                        #196.2 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:24 AM EDT

                                        Well, I have a perrfect solution to the 'Climate change" that everyone seems to agree is happening and is cause by the actions of man..If Man is the cause then remove the cause..Shoot as many of your neighbors and friends as you possible can before turning the gun on yourself..Save the earth, KILL MANKIND

                                          #196.3 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:47 AM EDT
                                          Reply

                                          God didn't build the Earth, the government built it...

                                            Reply#197 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:39 AM EDT

                                            Actually, gravity built it.

                                              #197.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:23 AM EDT
                                              Reply

                                              I'm not really sure what those of you who continue to argue against the science of climate change need in order to be convinced. Insurmountable evidence has been provided and scientists across every discipline have been polled on their beliefs on the subject. Scientists who specialize in earth sciences overwhelmingly believe that climate change is real andthat it is being fueled by mankind's activities. The only areas where belief is not as strong are those whose studies are funded by energy corporations or in no way actually study the science of climate change (i.e, those who study the economics of energy). I'm not a scientist now, I've moved on to better things. I wasn't a climate scientist but I dealt with areas that were related. I've no doubt in my mind of the robustness of the scientific techniques used to evaluate climate change and, consequently, have no doubt in my mind of the dire nature of the situation that mankind is faced with.

                                              If you still doubt what nearly every scientist says is true, perhaps you should step back and ask yourself why you're having so much trouble accepting it. Read something other than skepticalscience.com and truly evaluate the information in an objective manner. Quit clinging to beliefs that have no basis in science.

                                              • 1 vote
                                              Reply#198 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:47 AM EDT

                                              So what do we do to change the "climate change" back to whats supposed to be normal?

                                                #198.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:49 AM EDT
                                                Reply

                                                Suicide of the species by clathrate gun... Classic!

                                                  Reply#200 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:04 AM EDT

                                                  For those of you who do not believe in global warming, climate change or whatever you prefer to call it please do the following: Tell your congressman that you don't want the Pentagon to spend any more of your money working on studies, contingency plans and strategies for dealing with the geopolitical turmoil and military threats that will result from the effects of climate change. Since congress controls the countries purse strings and they are providing money to the pentagon for this type of work just tell em to quit wasting your tax dollars. Heck they could use that money somewhere else; like actually building a supposed "clean coal" fired power plant. Clean coal, yeah, like that will happen, Ha!

                                                  • 2 votes
                                                  Reply#201 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:11 AM EDT

                                                  So what you're saying is that there is NO possible way to burn coal in a "Clean" manner?..Well I've got a big news flash for you Tim..Those supposidly 'clean" burning OTHER fossile fuels, natural gas and oil, arent so clean burning themselves..What do you think cars and trains and planes and ships run on? Pink farts and giggles?..NEWS FLASH..ALL fossile fuels produce POLLUTION when they are burned..So you're saying that all that gas that cars burn everyday which is made from OIL, produces less pollution than the coal fired power plants?? Basically,250.4 million cars in the U.s produces less pollution than 175 coal fired power plants? BTW, the obama administration is closing 57 of those plants this year..So hes GREEN..Lets all help him out and turn the lights off,do away with the computers, and electric heaters, and refrigerators,and tV,s, and anything else electric..And then sell our cars and trucks and walk 30 miles to work..We'll then be making the sufficent personal sacrifice to help save this planet..THEN, when we quit polluting the enviroment ourselves, we can then point fingers at those that continue to pollute..Till then, dont cast the first stone..

                                                    #201.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:12 AM EDT

                                                    Blade

                                                    Hey A hole, please don't go on a tirade about other fossil fuels, I know fossil fuels produce carbon. I picked the clean coal lie because I don't have the time that you obviously do to blather on about the others. Time to go out into the sun light, you should try it.

                                                    Semper Fi Douche Bag.

                                                      #201.2 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:35 AM EDT
                                                      Reply

                                                      Isn't this what they say was causing ships to disappear in the so called Bermuda triangle? It would bubble up and the water would be less boyant or something?

                                                      This is sort of old news. I've seen shows about methane lakes.

                                                      And how much trash were cavemen generating to create such deposits?

                                                        Reply#202 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:15 AM EDT

                                                        It could be releases of methane gas that causes massive die offs of fish from time to time. We see them happen along the coast of South America more frequently now.

                                                          #202.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:31 AM EDT
                                                          Reply

                                                          Didn't any of you take geology in college? We know what caused the End Permian Extinction(or as most know it the Great Dying when 95% of all earths species died) 250mil years ago. The rocks tell us. The atmosphere changed and there was an over abundance of CO2 in the air(from the Siberian Traps and the burning of massive coal deposits). Then came the methane toward the very end of the EPE. The CO2 in the atmosphere caused rapid climate change. This melted the Ice in the polar regions. Less ice meant less sunlight reflected back. This caused the oceans to heat up, because ocean water absorbs heat very well. That rise in ocean temps destabilized the frozen methane that was trapped thousands of feet below in the oceans. We're talking billions of metric tons of gas. Methane is 20 times more powerful greenhouse gas than C02. If it is released. You'll see a massive raise in temps across the globe unlike anything we've seen before. When it happens it go quickly. As much as 25 degrees above normal. Yeah. I said 25 degrees above normal. Just 6 degrees above normal temp can have a huge impact. 25 degrees and you can kiss the 95% of the earths species goodbye and probably humans as well.

                                                          This isn't fantasy stuff. It isn't made up. This is what happened 250 million years ago. The rocks tell us this happened and if we continue to pump massive amounts of CO2 into the air unchecked - it'll happen again and it is happening. We can all ready see deposits of frozen methane melting just 1 mile off the coast of California. Scientist monitor the methane being released there constantly - as they do in other oceans and seas. If the bigger deposits of methane that exist in the northern oceans and seas melt - well, let's just say you'll be able to lounge beneath a palm tree on the North Slope of Alaska within a few years.

                                                          Just Google End Permian - educate yourself.

                                                          • 1 vote
                                                          Reply#203 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:28 AM EDT

                                                          Even though the slopes of Alaska was at one time a tropical forest, I'm willing to bet you anything you want to loose that neither of us will be lounging underneath a palm tree on the North slope of Alaska within our lifetime..

                                                          Did the rocks tell us who it was that set the massive coal deposits on fire..Cavemen perhapse? And how many years did these massive coal deposits burn before it warmed the climate enough to "thaw" the frozen methane and release it into the atmosphere? And after all that methane was released,how and when did it reverse itsself and disapate out of the atmosphere? And where did it go?..Did it "freeze" again and sink to the bottom of the ocean??..And if it did do that, what tipped the ballance in the atmsphere and caused it to do that?..Sounds ALOT like a natural earth cycle to me..I'm just saying..

                                                            #203.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:26 AM EDT
                                                            Reply

                                                            So, we don't need to concern ourselves with the 0.038% any longer. Methane makes the minor greenhouse effects of carbon dioxide irrelevant. Then water vapor, the dominant greenhouse gas, makes both of them irrelevant. Perspective.

                                                              Reply#204 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:45 AM EDT

                                                              John, CO2 will cause temps to rise. It is a greenhouse gas. As we continue to pump more and more CO2 into the air the temp will rise. With the melting of the ice caps more and more the oceans heat up substantially. See the oceans and the ice caps is how our planet pretty much regulates heat. If we lose the ice caps the ocean water that is exposed heats up more and more. Soon you get what we call a runaway feedback effect. That means the oceans get to a temp that no longer allows the formation of ice caps. By that time, the ocean temps will be as such that they'll destabilize all that frozen methane trapped on the ocean floors and in the permafrost of the northern reaches. When that happens it is all ready to late. Within a few years the earths average temp will be well over 54c or 129 degrees F. And that will be a cool day on Earth,when you consider that in the summer time the temp will easily jump to over 160 degrees F, if the methane that is trapped is released.

                                                                #204.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:03 AM EDT

                                                                Actually, a likely result of largescale breakdown of the clathrate holding structures and the consequent gasification of frozen methane hydrates would be a lot of explosions that will likely transform much of the surface of the planet into a dead husk - quite possibly what happened during the Permian-Triassic Extinction Event and a few other times in geological history. These explosions would, in turn, release lots of dust and debris into the atmosphere, leading to global cooling rather than warming - effectively, a "nuclear winter" and triggering another ice age.

                                                                Of course, by the time that happens, virtually all life on earth will already have been exterminated due to the fall in oxygen concentrations and the atmosphere burning in giant firestorms.

                                                                Global methane clathrate breakdown isn't just an extinction event or even a catastrophe of Biblical scope - it would effectively be a planetary reset.. creating a clean slate for mother nature to start all over again. We will not be part of that subsequent return to normality.

                                                                • 1 vote
                                                                #204.2 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:10 AM EDT

                                                                @CaliforniaFirst Yes, eventually the world would cool again, but it would take a few million years for CO2 and Methane to once again fall and be trapped in the rocks and water. Just as it did before. So first would come the heat. Then the acid rains. Then the cooling. You are correct, though, there will be a mssive reset of the earths eco system and life as we know it. Who knows, maybe this next time around it'll be insects that rule the world.

                                                                  #204.3 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:20 AM EDT

                                                                  Ok, so lets assume that the oceans are warming up and the frozen methane is thawing and the result is run away "climate change"..So someone tell me this..

                                                                  Over 90% of the TOTAL volume of the oceans is found in the thermocline layer and the average temperature of that water is between 32 and 37.5 degrees fahrenheit..This layer, considered the deep ocean, is NOT well mixed with the "warmer" water of the other ocean layers..So how long will it take to heat the thermocline layer of the ocean that is in some cases 5 miles deep to a sufficient temperature as to "thaw" the frozen methane and release it into the atmosphere?

                                                                    #204.4 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:42 AM EDT

                                                                    Blade, unknown.. We only have evidence on a geologic timeframe from past releases, and that evidence seems to suggest the release into the troposphere and stratosphere can happen very very quickly on a geologic time scale.. but that could mean anything from months to millenia.

                                                                    In any event though, the question is the rate of release.. and how much warming - as well as fire and acidity potential - that rate will generate. I'm not sure it matters. Do you really care whether it will kill your great grand kids or your great^100 grandkids? The species might very well be in serious trouble in any event.

                                                                      #204.5 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:59 PM EDT
                                                                      Reply

                                                                      I accept the science of humans changing the atmospheric chemical composition through globalized industrialization. Much to my frustration and concern for future generations, the political reality is that there are so many ignorant Americans (some by choice, some by circumstance) it will take many years of violent and powerful weather, unusually hot summers, drought, and increasingly acidic oceans before today's ignorant are dead and more informed voters decide to take action. The problem is that so much more pollution will have been added to the atmosphere by then that the train of climate change will have already left the station and the seas will inevitably rise. What I don't understand is that we buy insurance for our lives, homes, autos, and other valuables but we don't place a value on our planet by paying for insurance just in case the science is correct.

                                                                      For those of us who don’t like to be ignorant about the science of altering the atmosphere's chemistry, I suggest the following books with a brief quote from each:

                                                                      1. A Green History of the World, Clive Ponting, 1991 – “The net result of these human activities is the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen by a third in the last two hundred years – from about 270 parts per million in 1750 to 350 parts per million in the late 1980s. About half of this increase has occurred since the 1950s – carbon dioxide emissions rose from 1.6 billion tons a year in 1950 to 5.4 billion tons in the mid-1980s. Global use of fossil fuels is rising at about 4 per cent a year (which means a doubling every sixteen years) and carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere at about .5 per cent a year. Carbon dioxide has provided by far the greatest volume of greenhouse gas emissions and contributed about two-thirds of the total warming effect so far.” [page 388]
                                                                      2. The Little Ice Age, Brian Fagan, 2000 – “The Little Ice Age reminds us that climate change is inevitable, unpredictable, and sometimes vicious. The future promises exactly the same kinds of violent change on a local and global scale. If the present, unusually prolonged high mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation is indeed due to anthropogenic forcing, then we must also assume that global warming will accentuate the natural cycles of global climate on the largest and smallest scales. Some of these potential cycles of change are frightening to contemplate in an overpopulated and heavily industrialized world.” [page 214] “Over a century ago, Victorian biologist Thomas Huxley urged us to be ‘humble before the facts’. The facts stare us in the face, yet we do not display sufficient humility. The vicissitudes of the Little Ice Age remind us of our vulnerability again and again. In a new climatic era, we would be wise to learn from the climatic lessons of history.” [page 217]
                                                                      3. The Long Summer, Brian Fagan, 2004 – “Short-term climatic events like droughts do not often leave a clear footprint. But the droughts of the Medieval Warm Period (or Medieval Climatic Anomaly, as it is often called) left giant tracks across the American west, wrought in deep-sea cores, pollen samples, tree rings, and ice cores from high in the Andes. From the California coast to the Maya lowlands to Lake Titicaca, five centuries of sudden aridity wrought havoc on human societies already living close to the environmental edge.” [pages 214-215]
                                                                      4. The Weather Makers, Timothy Flannery, 2005 – “The concentration of C02 in the atmosphere in times past can be measured from bubbles of air preserved in ice. By drilling about two miles into the Antarctic ice cap, scientists have drawn out an ice core that spans almost a million years of Earth history. This unique record demonstrates that during cold times CO2 levels have dropped to around 160 parts per million, and until recently they never exceeded 280 parts per million. The Industrial Revolution changed that, albeit slowly, for even by 1958, when Keeling began his measurements of CO2 atop Mauna Loa, it was up to only 315 parts per million.” [page 29] “Today the figures are 380 parts per million….” [page 28]
                                                                      5. Collapse, Jared Diamond, 2005 – “…the atmosphere really has been undergoing an unusually rapid rise in temperature recently and that human activities are the or a major cause. The remaining uncertainties mainly concern the future expected magnitude of the effect: e.g., whether average global temperatures will increase by ‘just’ 1.5 degrees Centigrade or by 5 degrees Centigrade over the next century. Those numbers may not sound like a big deal, until one reflects that average global temperatures were ‘only’ 5 degrees cooler at the height of the last Ice Age.” [page 493]
                                                                      6. The Revenge of Gaia, James Lovelock, 2006 – “Predictions of climate change do not depend only on theoretical models in the form of computer simulations of the Earth. There is now a vast array of monitoring activities sustained globally. Air and sea temperatures are continuously measured, as are the gases of the atmosphere, the cloud cover, the floating ice and the glaciers and the health of the ecosystems in the ocean and on the land. The truth of the models is therefore continuously tested against the observations coming in from the real world.” [page 57]
                                                                      7. Dead Pool, James Lawrence Powell, 2008 – “The question is not whether the earth has warmed, but why? The scientific consensus is that the cause is the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which absorb heat and trap it near the earth. In one of the most prescient predictions in science, in 1896 … Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius predicted the very rise that we now observe. Based on the knowledge that carbon dioxide molecules trap heat, Arrhenius calculated that if atmospheric carbon dioxide level were to double, global temperatures would rise between 7 and 11 degrees F. More than a century later with vastly more information, IPCC forecasts that by 2100, temperatures will rise between 2.5 and 10.5 degrees F, overlapping the range the Swedish chemist forecast long ago. Arrhenius thought it might take three thousand years for carbon dioxide levels to double, but sadly that is one forecast that he got wrong.” [pages 171-2]
                                                                      8. The Flooded Earth, Peter Ward, 2010 – “Our planet did not break out of the 180-280 ppm range until about 1800, when carbon dioxide levels began to rise well beyond the old upper limit. By 1900, the level was 295 ppm…. From 1900 to 2000, CO2 levels went from 295 all the way up the current level of about 385 – a 90 ppm rise in just a hundred years. The rate at which carbon dioxide is increasing…is accelerating. Models using the latest values of the measured rise for the past decade, and projecting forward, lead to an estimate that CO2 levels will nearly double in the next two centuries. That is the level of the Mesozoic Period and will cause the ice sheets to rapidly melt – all of them.” [pages 56-7]

                                                                      I make these suggestions to help frame the science behind the issues associated with human-caused changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Many people seem ignorant of the science behind climate analysis and content to put their heads deeply into the sand. The defining characteristic of humanity, complex intelligence, is enhanced by a broad liberal education. Thomas Jefferson had this to say about higher education including science: “the university [of Virginia] would be ‘now qualified to raise its youth to an order of science unequalled in any other state; and this superiority will be greater from the free range of mind encouraged there, and the restraint imposed at other seminaries by the shackles of a domineering hierarchy and a bigoted adhesion to ancient habits.’” [from Thomas Jefferson, Willard Sterne Randall, 1993, page 588]

                                                                        Reply#205 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:54 AM EDT

                                                                        First it was global cooling or another ice age or something. Then it was global warming and then it was climate change so the doomsayers could have it either way. Then it was Katrina and we were going to have at least 5 or 6 of those type hurricanes every year. I know that hurricanes are bad no matter the category when you are the one experiencing it but I don't I don't recall any that bad since. Now it is methane that is going to do us in. Maybe some whiz kid can come up with a way to capture the methane and use it productively for society. That would give the doomsayers a whole nother thing to bitch about. Some greedy business man getting rich off of it.

                                                                          Reply#206 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:16 AM EDT

                                                                          J.Bailey, guess what, scientist have known about methane clathrate for quite some time and they have been talking about it for years. It is not something new. You can sit and make believe that your little world is filled with unicorns and lollipops, but the science is there and it shows what has happened in the past and what will happen again. If you wish to blow it off, go right ahead, because when it does happen - don't say you weren't told it would happen.

                                                                            #206.1 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:25 AM EDT

                                                                            Yes but thats the problem KMM..I'll agree that man is causing a hell of alot of damage to this planet..And I'll agree that we're accelerating the CO2 levels at a faster pace than at any time in history ..I'll even agree that history does infact show that "Climate change" DID happen way back then and will without a doubt happen again..BUT..My problem with all this is that some people 'suggest' that the world will go to hell in a hand basket in 2...3...10...even 20 years..How can someone predict that??..Before, in history, it took literally thousands of years for that 'Climate change" to occur..I dont care what levels of pollution we pump into the air, we cant possible cause something to happen in 10 years that its taken THOUSANDS of years to happen before..BUT if we have, its too late to change it anyways..We have to hope that mother nature makes the nessessary adjustment to ballance out the climate again..We cant..Do you not agree with that statement?

                                                                            • 1 vote
                                                                            #206.2 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:10 AM EDT
                                                                            Reply

                                                                            wow

                                                                            8 pages and 539 scientists here, all of them global warming climate change experts, good to know, we are saved.

                                                                            /sarcasism

                                                                            please quit driving your cars, and using electricity then you'll be a leader and maybe then people that don't cotton to the your fevered pitch will follow.

                                                                            If not your just a do as I say not as I do'er.

                                                                              Reply#207 - Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:37 AM EDT
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