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Frank Eltman / AP
Pilings that once held a walkway over dunes leading to the beach are all that remain outside a boarded up home in Ocean Beach, N.Y.
That's because more than 4,000 structures survived, at least enough to be repaired. And some are crediting the carefully maintained wall of dunes, ranging from 10 to 20 feet tall, with taking the brunt of the storm's fury.
"The dunes were demolished, but without their protection it would have been much worse," said Malcolm Bowman, a professor of physical oceanography at Stony Brook University.
New Yorkers know Fire Island as their own private paradise, a close-to-home getaway that's accessible only by ferry and feels like a different country. The strip of beaches five miles off the south shore of Long Island is three-fourths undeveloped and includes a national wilderness area.
It has just 300 permanent residents, but on weekends from Memorial Day to Labor Day, the population is swelled by 75,000 visitors who rent homes ranging in size from multilevel palaces to rustic bungalows. A couple of communities are favorite destinations of gay and lesbian visitors. Cars are banned in the summertime; denizens get around on bikes and boardwalks and tote their gear in red toy wagons.
Because of its remoteness, officials have only begun in the past week or so to allow the residents, and the others who own vacation homes and businesses, to return and assess the damage.
Retired electrical contractor Hyman Portnoy, whose two-story oceanfront home in the village of Ocean Beach suffered damage to its large deck, said rebuilding the dunes is a major concern.
USGS via AP
Part of Ocean Beach, N.Y., is seen before and after Superstorm Sandy.
"We haven't got any protection now," he said. "I'd be satisfied with anything. I'd be satisfied with a pile."
Suzy Goldhirsch, president of the Fire Island Association, which represents businesses and homeowners, noted that homeowners in many Fire Island communities — there are 17 different villages and hamlets — pay part of their property taxes to maintain the dunes.
But she expects the federal government will be asked to fund some of the dune restoration, arguing that maintaining the barrier island serves to protect not just Fire Island, but also the homes of the 3 million Long Islanders on the mainland.
Critics of federal funding of beach and dune replenishment say U.S. taxpayers shouldn't pick up the tab for beaches enjoyed by only a fraction of the population. Replenishment backers counter that Congress has approved recovery funds for other disasters including Hurricane Katrina and last year's tornadoes in Missouri.
The work of replacing sand dunes that washed away in the storm is already under way. Workers are scooping up sand from the streets, putting it in bags and piling it up where the dunes once stood.
Ocean waves demolished at least nine houses, left in splinters on the oceanfront, and about 200 others are severely damaged and likely to be condemned. Dozens of other homes appear uninhabitable without major repairs. Others are covered in muck several inches deep.
"Decimated," Ocean Beach artist Kenny Goodman said last week as he returned to the shop he has owned for a quarter-century. When he first saw the damage from flooding in his store, he said, he was "really overwhelmed and sad — it's just a gigantic loss."
Goodman, a New Yorker who has been coming to Fire Island for 40 years, said he plans to rebuild his shop. "It will be different. Maybe by my grandchildren's time it will be back," but he also lamented, "It won't be like it was."
The Atlantic Ocean breached the narrow island in three places. Two of the breaches are being closed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; the National Park Service is evaluating whether a third breach should be closed by the Army Corps or allowed to close naturally.
As far as rebuilding, many jurisdictions — federal, state, county, town and local — will have a say in what can and can't be rebuilt, said Fire Island National Seashore Superintendent Chris Soller. New York state has regulations about who can rebuild in some designated coastal erosion zones, although an official with the town of Brookhaven, which oversees some of the westernmost communities of the island's 17 hamlets and villages, said special variances could be issued in some cases to allow rebuilding in those zones.
Fire Island, like many Northeast communities harmed by Sandy, is beginning to reassess where and how to rebuild, Goldhirsch said.
"It's part of a new national dialogue," she said. "The governor has said he wants to rebuild smarter and better, and I think we have to think about how we are going to do this so it's better in the future. We have a lot to think about; there are no easy answers, no one answer."
Political leaders need to come up with a long-term plan for future development on the island, said Bowman, the Stony Brook professor.
"Not just a rapid-fire reaction to a catastrophe; this is going to happen again," he said. "Some of these things are going to be very expensive decisions, and we need a longer perspective."
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Leave a Comment:
Slow news day?
Please feel free to move on if you don't think it is important enough to be news.
I learned about the importance of sand dunes and barrier islands in ninth grade. I guess not everyone in class was paying attention.
It is a slow news day.
Those who think this story is worth National attention:
Provide me the details of the dune erosion of any of the past Major Storms, How about Ike, Rita, just to name a couple. Put your pants back on and try again to count to 1.
If I was a betting man I would be willing to bet that a some of the property owners are the same as the ones that want to do away with entitlements like social security but they want the working stiff to make them whole again.
Well, Paul, you might actually have the funds to afford a little betting, if you'd do like those "property owners" do, and earn your money...instead of relying on entitlements like Social Security.
It is important if no other reason than the defenses that protected the island from this storm won't be there the next time, unless rebuilt.
It is ridiculous to expect taxpayers to pay for the very few to live and vacation on this island! Like here in earthquake country - we have earthquake insurance. If a handful of people want to live and enjoy a barrier island, one that is basically a strip of dirt at sea leavel, then they need to pay for it! Taxpayers should not be paying for people to live where they probably should not be living. Let the tiny island residents and owners form an association to pay their proportionate share to maintain and/or rebuild the dunes.
I agree with hopeful american...we need to stop wasting time and money on this nonsense...I feel bad when I hear someone's house got hit by a tornado...until I hear they live in tornado alley. This is mother nature's way of thinning the heard.
rather than spend all that money...residents should relocate to where...corporate america sent all the jobs...china...
Mike: You do realize Tornado Alley covers several states? Are you suggesting no one live there?
@Spider
This is part of the ignorance that comes from the right.
Social Security is not an entitlement.
I have paid into it for over 40 years, it comes out of my paycheck.
The reason it is part of the US debt is because the US government BORROWS money from Social Security in the form of Bonds. Social Security has run in the Black and has money to lend.
Like all debts those Bonds need to be paid off. If the US doesn't pay it's debt it gets a ding in the credit rating.
Geeeez.
There is a ferry to the park at Fire Island; lots of non-residents enjoy that park and beach, including the nature trail. I wonder how the ancient pines have weathered the storm; there were rare plants. On a day-trip to Fire Island many years ago, I was stung by jellyfish, and was severely sunburned, but it was beautiful then. This storm wasn't just about the destruction of houses, but parks that let the public enjoy many of the beauties of nature. I hope that taxpayers restore those parks.
people's homes and businesses destroyed or saved. How to rebuild their protection or not
somewhat similar to levees in NOLA after Katrina for these people...remember lots of talk about levees?
best to save "slow news" comments for things more superficial
JOregon, Spider might aught to know also that if HIS right wing obstructionist idiots who have NO idea of how or why government works, if they don't raise the debt ceiling, those bonds could be earning higher rates, making it even more in the black. Does this guy ever look at his paycheck stub? Why is it the right has a need to bankrupt the country? They should really remove the SS ceiling and collect SS funds on ALL income, including capital gains if capital gains is the persons primary source of income. That way the rates could be lowered for everyone, including the matching cost on business. But that has no bearing on this story. The people in places like Fire Island should have to pay for at least some of their protection, like rebuilding the dunes, if that is even possible. I believe part of the island is either state or national park lands. That part of course should come out of public funds.
Spider doesn't carry the full blame there are an awful lot of talking heads that live under the illusion that Social Security is somehow paid by the government with no awareness that it comes out of the workers paycheck. I'm guessing Spider doesn't get a paycheck, probably just a student.
A real entitlement is in the Federal Pension plan. They don't pay into it. It is an something most Federal Employees are ENTITLED to until they die. You will never hear anyone talking about dropping that one because Senators, Representatives and former Presidents all draw from it.
The Federal pension shouldn't end because retired Military also are entitled to it and they earned it. The Right-wingnuts will never talk about ending the pensions.
It is just one more reason why I am so sick and tired of the nutcases in the GOP.
Spider like many on the right believes social security is a ponzi scheme because the money is borrowed and spent as soon as it's paid in. But they believe treasuries are a valid debt worthy of being paid back over many years even though it's still spent as soon as they're sold. Don't try to understand the logic of the right.
This will end the same way it did after GLORIA !!!!
The big money out in the Hampton's will get Dune Road rebuilt and houses rebuilt. They fail to see or yield to mother nature. The sea builds barrier islands and destroys them , only to rebuild them some place else. It is all part of the natural cycle of things and life along the coast.
Doesn't the right-wing also believe it was God that purposely destroyed this Gay/Lesbian leisure zone? I would have to say it really took it up the rear from Sandy! And now that Hostess is going out of business what are the "Twinkies" to do?
Of course Social Security is an entitlement. You're entitled to it, aren't you? I swear English is a second language in this country.
Yes, an Entitlement is literally something you are Entitled to see post #1.16.
However there has been a huge effort to make the term a derogatory one. Where it refers to handouts.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=entitlement
This is where Social Security does not fit in since it is MY money which I have invested with Social Security. I expect them to use my money to earn more in the form of low risk investments, which they do when they sell bonds to the US government.
Yes, I am entitled to my own money.
Ag99,
No, Live where you want but it should be at your own risk...Not mine.
I chose to live in a place that doesn't have earthquakes hurricanes or tornados..nor does it have flooding issues...yes all these could happen here but it is unlikely...my choice...my risk. I have a piece of commercial property that about 60 percent of it floods during the 2006 and 2007 storms in this area and I knew it when I bought it and didn't complain one bit when it did...I did the research and took the risk..why can't people be responsible for them selves.
So you can't feel bad for someone when they're hit by a natural disaster just because of where they live? They pay for their losses the same way you do, with insurance. You can feel sorry for them without having to bail them out.
I bet there'll be lots of slap fights over new proposed building ordinances
Good one! Took me a minute to catch the implication. A screaming bitch fight is always entertaining.
huh huh - you're making fun of gay people - huh huh
Beaches erode in the winter during high wave height (storm waves ), and build in the summer during periods where the wave heights are low. This is how the barrier beaches came about to begin with. The sand didn't disappear, it just moved somewhere else. Unfortunately, that somewhere else might be an inconvenient location, or non desirable location. Water, as seen, has a lot more power than many civil engineers wish it had. The local government has to seriously look at the costs of replenishing the beaches, as the sand that they put in an area might just move due to future wave action, and areas left alone may accumulate sand naturally.
What people see on the surface is just half of the wave. Sediments (sand) have been moved under the water surface as well. These sediment transportation systems, generated by wind waves, shift the sand dunes and bars seasonally with wind wave events coupled with tidal highs and lows. Beach front property owners have never been satisfied with this erosion cycle, and they never will be.
So true!
No one should be allowed to rebuild. Period. There wouldn't be a problem in the first place if man had not interfered. That includes the entire East Coast. There is going to be more and more destruction of this magnitude as ocean levels rise and climate change contributes to an increased frequency of violent storms. The best thing to do to protect the mainland is to stop all rebuilding efforts on barrier islands and allow them to return to nature. Believe it or not, Mother Nature knows exactly what she is doing. It's man's interference that causes problems.
Where are all of the proponents for smaller government, less government, lower taxes and no meddling in State affairs by the Federal government when it is YOUR house or YOUR beach or YOUR island...................lots of hypocrisy out there when **it happens. But it is so easy to criticize others who suffer similar catastrophes and it is THEIR fault for building a house or living where THEY shouldn't. and THEY shouldn't expect the government for anything other than loans.
We ARE in these catastrophes together so remember this the next time it happens in a neighboring state.
I spent a lot of time on the Jersey coast growing up. It is a constant fight. Many years ago, in Bayhead NJ, a friend's family spent 30,000 just to bring in some boulders to help with the persistent beach erosion. It helped for a couple years, and then more erosion. Eventually the home was torn down. It was a magnificent home. One winter on any house along the beach is barely recognizable the next year. We use to barter for rental time in exchange for painting. There was never a shortage of jobs.
Yea, the haters work both sides of their mouth. help is supposed to come after huge natural events.
It's not help to rebuild the wealthiest American's beach houses and beaches. Food pantries, hot meals, shelters, etc. Safety nets are supposed to be for those who have no means of dealing with tragedies - those who "fall".
NY is NOT a red state. They favor government help.
Sure, Jim B., just forget about the lousy evil f**kers who actually provided the revenue to fund recovery....to include the food pantries, hot meals, shelters, etc. Sounds to me like a loser quoting from the official Class Warfare Handbook.
Except for those who work in NYC's financial industry (many of whom, no doubt, have homes or Fire Island or rent there) ... polls showed that they much preferred Romney. Of course, that's not to say that they still don't favor government help when it is THEIR property that needs to be rebuilt.
A lot of the homeowners are regular working people that rent them out in the summer for $1-$2k a week to vacationers to pay their mortgage for the year & property taxes. Even the owners have to tell the property managers when they want to come to their home.
At least I haven't yet read anything bashing Obama as I did from those on the right after sandy hit. Half of those bashed Obama for not doing enough and the other half for spending federal money bailing them out.
Well, to be honest, as Steve pointed out this is how nature has always worked. If there hadn't been homes on the island this would b e simply nature rearranging the furniture a bit. Since there are lots of people there we end up with all the issues, but really, the only way to avoid this is not to build there. Since that isn't likely to happen, working with nature is the best solution, and since nature protects herself and not specifically the people it might not fix it either. We will be getting more storms, so good luck to anyone who wants to live there.
While it's a fair question regarding rebuilding houses, moving quickly to rebuild the dunes is important not the least to tax payers. The dunes on fire island did protect some homes on fire island, but what they really did was to function as barrier islands (as one would expect), absorbing the storm surge before it could hit the (much more densely populated) coast of Long Island.
Millions of people live on Long Island, so you're looking at many billions of dollars of insured losses plus many tens of billion dollars of federal (tax payer) funds to deal with the aftermath of future storms should Fire Island be allowed to deteriorate to the point where it is no longer an effective barrier. Moriches Inlet was cut by the Long Island Express in the 1930s (I want to say 1938, but I may be off a few years), and it has never closed. Many more of those, and the costs will be staggering, and recurring.
Personally, I think that all of Fire Island should be National Seashore (parts already are) and maintained as a barrier. Large swaths of Fire Island are already public beaches and there are public concessions and private businesses at those beaches. Far better IMO to extend that model to the remainder of fire island than to rebuild houses every time a big storm hits the area.
These seafront places cannot be lived in anymore. Everyone needs to rise above their pet delusions and understand the planet has permanently changed. Don't be an idiot and rebuild. Move.
They aren't fit for human habitation UNLESS the rest of the world learns from the Dutch. They are the past masters at not only controlling the advance of the seas but in creating new land that is also protected.
Remember, though, that this is not an isolated case. Almost the whole of Bangladesh is subject to flooding every year, and it's getting worse and worse by the year. Other countries, too, are having this same problem.
As pointed out by an article right after Sandy the technology to reduce this is already used in numerous countries. Barriers that can be closed during a storm would have reduced the damage drastically. Though the cost would be several billion it would have paid for itself many times over during Sandy.
To the victims and bystanders, don't give up without serious and creative thinking and analysis about what could be done and why to reduce or avoid the risk. The hidden value to the general public, including, but not just recreation, is substantial and should not be abandoned willynilly.
"If man was meant to fly, he would have been born with wings", or a mind and the gumption to work around the lack.
(c) 2012
lifeisadimension - what hidden value to the general public? The chance to support a bunch of rich people in their beach front homes?
Take the money the feds would give to foreign aid and spend it on Americans here on American soil..!
Hang tough, good neighbors!!
no
Your probably right frmrmrine why should we Americans take from a country like Pakistan who now has American funded nuclear arms to help our fellow American tax producers out of a jam.
People like you make me proud to be an American.
Rather than relying on re-routed foreign aid (government funds) to rebuild, wouldn't it be better if all of these folks had purchased a simple homeowners policy? Gawd, no wonder president Santa Claus got re-elected!
Take the money we spend on South Korea and Japan defense and spend it on Americans here on American soil.
i say off shore the resident's...oh that's all ready been done never mind...
The professor from Stony Brook has it right. If It weren't for the dunes, we'd probably be looking at a 32 mile strip of island wiped completely clean, if not off the face of the earth. It would have been Hog Island 1893 all over again.
There are two things we can be certain of: the areas that took major damage from Sandy are going to continue to take major damage once winter storm season hits its stride and people will forget the reason why Sandy was so destructive was that Sandy had a central barometric pressure consistent with a high 3/low 4 hurricane; lower barometric pressure equals more downforce on water at the center of the storm equals higher waves and higher surge.
Never underestimate the power of moving water, especially when it's moving water piled on top of moving water.
The loss of property is always tragic and we know some residents personally. I have great memories of summers at the island while growing up. Some property owners have family memories that no government help can ever replace.
I do know that present building requirements have changed greatly, and hopefully future losses will not be as bad. Also sand dunes have always worked in places like the outer banks in NC that are constantly at the mercy of the big waves. I hope things work out at the end.
No Federal money for this!
This is a natural progression, islands get removed and get reformed. We cannot, should not go around putting back the way it was, what a waste of money.
If these people just have to rebuild, rebuild knowing that the dunes is no longer going to be a seawall. Whatever man builds the sea can remove, tough that's the chance you take.
Idiot FEMA should not be insuring places like this, because they will have to pay at some point. Private insurance or none at all.
Replacing the dunes is good for the inland. Letting anybody live there, not so good. It is going to happen again. But just think of all those billable hours for those involved with their own special need.
Sandy was definatelly Bush's fault
Yeah RIGHT!!!
I want, REALLY WANT, my hard-earned tax dollars (extorted from me by the Obama administration) to be used to "restore" these New Yawk City jew's "get-away" homes to their "former glory"!
Carrion, please.
Well gee Doc aren't you supposed to be at tonight's cross burning?
Those "jew's" probably pay more taxes thenyou and New York is a state that pays more federal taxes then it gets back in funding unlike most red states. Remember those same rich people pay a larger share of taxes.
Doc
Please let us know what your "hard-earned tax dollars" should be spent on and do be specific about it. You obviously don't think they should be spent at your living premises when a disaster destroyed your property, right?
Do you question the fact that you are responsible for paying property taxes, road and infrastructure improvements and repairs, trash and garbage collection taxes as well as new public construction !!(BY LOCAL GOVERNMENT)!! while you don't even have a standing property, anymore?
Please enlighten us with your wisdom.
BTW, people not only in the U.S., but everywhere in the globe will remain building at the shore or very close to it. If some of you would like to argue about human "stupidity" we can go deep into the fact. An obvious example would be these threads right here.
Doc, you dumb sh!t, nobody's tax dollars are going to be used to restore private homes.
Why do you ignorant hicks always assume that's going to happen? Is it because you can't read, or are you just stupid?
Doc Warbucks
For what it is worth, I back you on your post.... These people build on the water's edge and then piss and moan when the water wins. They post their property and call it a PRIVATE BEACH and will call the cops on you if you should venture near,
Yet When Mother Nature Comes to collect her dues... They scream and cry and pitch a bitch that Government is the one that should foot the bill to fix it... And you know as well as I do, Once it is fixed, it will again become a PRIVATE BEACH.
Uhm,.... that's kind of what dunes are. Isn't it amazing that people build on barrier beaches and then are astounded when the ocean washes their neighborhood away.
Those who choose to build homes and reside in highly exposed and potentially dangerous areas should NOT expect the taxpayers to foot the bill for reconstruction when that disaster happens. That goes for Fire Island, other beach residences in exposed areas, low lying areas below sea level (New Orleans), earthquake fault lines, etcetera!
When hundreds of thousands of poor people lose their homes, built on safe, low-risk ground, surely it's between them and their insurance companies. When a few hundred rich people lose their home, built on ground with a history of flooding and damage due to water and storms, surely it's in the federal government's and all taxpayers' interest to bail them out...
Nobody is bailing them out. What the hell is wrong with you?
Like I just asked Doc: Why do you ignorant hicks always assume that's going to happen? Is it because you can't read, or are you just stupid? Or both?
-DOG (oh sorry you think it is funny to call yourself god....)
ignorant hicks... And Who do you think is going to REBUILD the DUNES? Home Owners... LMAO you know better then that after all are you not all seeing, all knowing... At least that is the title you claim.
what happens is the Fed, State and Local govt. use public monies to rebuild the infrastructure. The infrastructure that allows people to build in high risk zones. This has allowed more and more properties to be developed in areas that are not suitable for luxury homes, unless of course you can self insure. I think the taxpayers that are against rebuilding would rather see those who benefit rebuild their own infrastructure and beach houses in high risk zones. Public monies are used to back flood insurance. To the extent any of these owners have flood insurance taxpayer monies are being spent to settle those claims. The NY area has not had a storm of this magnitude in a generation. Much of the coastal United States is in the same boat. It may be time to realize the bill has come due for the hubris that allowed those to build on the beach.
Thanks for the compliment, running. Dogs have done more to benefit mankind than your god ever will.
As to your irrelevant question, there's a difference between rebuilding the dunes and bailing out the homeowners, as per the original comment that I replied to. Now... which are you? Illiterate, stupid, or both?
Work with me here people!They could turn it into 1800s style sea port.First relax all the stringent building codes.Restore all the houses(make them safe)And then turn them all into shops,bed&breakfests,a bunch of old style pubs&dance halls.Nothin fancy!Just old timey.No cars,Strickly for old school types of transpotation Horse & Buggies.The venders would make a bundle!
Turn it back to the public.Make it a green utopia.The place would be a boom Town.It would be a leaf lickers paradise.Put time back a couple of hundred years
See.I solved the problem,created jobs,kept the Al Goreleone goons off my back.All the land owners would be able to keep thier land and make a bundle of money.And It sounds like a cool place to go!
And at the first sign of bad weather!Board the dives up and head for high ground.Problem Solved!
Over time the dunes will recreate themselves. It has happened in South Carolina, Texas, New Jersey and other states along the Atlantic Ocean. In Asbury Park they often need to push the sand back into the sea following winter storms, so all is not lost -- unless your house floated away in the hurricane.
Wind wave generated shore erosion to coastal properties is not an easy problem for insurance companies to solve. This is because of offshore topography which influences the size of the waves and storm surges, and the focusing of the water waves which cause the damage to the shoreline. A few would be benefited, but overall most would loose out with property insurance. This cost needs to be figured out over a fairly long period of time. Most erosive wind waves will be generated during the fall when the tides are highest, and seasonal storm patterns can work simultaneously against the dunes. Years might elapse before the storm and tides correspond, and property owners who wish for an ocean view forget the power of hurricane, even gale force winds.
I would suggest that once a property is lost to coastal erosion, no dwelling should replace that loss, not just for the property, but in terms of insurance rates for other property owners, not subject to coastal erosion. Live on high ground and ride down to the beach for your visits.
We humans have terraformed the atmosphere, now the atmosphere is going to terraform us into extinction probably.
How nature plays god. Interesting.
Even most third world countries provide massive aid to their citizens after a natural disaster. What would we think of the Japanese after the sunami had they not activated massive federal disaster aid? Or the Chinese after their massive earthquake or in India after the terrible floods. If we can afford a military that's more expensive than the combined cost of the rest of the world we can help our own.
They should implement a tax to anyone who travels to the area in the future so they have a cushion to rebuild the dunes in the future. Maybe add $10-$20 dollars to the price of a ferry ride.
Places like Jupiter Island, Jekyll island, parts of NC, and Palm Beach get beach repair at inland expense routinely. But the Bush's , Kennedy's and power brokers live there. And they do not respect the mean high tide laws. So the people who paid for those beaches cannot walk on them without being hassled .
You never see the so called conservative posters attack these constant massive give aways. They climb from beneath their rocks, ONLY when middle and lower class communities on a coast are effected.
Then they proclaim those people must move? To where? Point them to a area without hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanoes, or floods. When identified, the same posters will complain about the overcrowding.
The article states there are only 300 permanent residents. And I don't know if you've visited the Hamptons and Fire Island, but they're not exactly proletarian. Oh - and did you know the federal government is flat broke? Actually, much worse than that - so deep in debt and unfunded liabilities that the country's future is in question.
Umm, MikeBC, good point. So we are going to equally desert fellow citizens , regardless of wealth , location, or creed???
If thats your libertarian point. I respect it. Thats not whats passed as a conservative for three decades.
Now what exactly do you wish not to be done? As applied equally in all disaster risk applications???
there is a report called "state of the climate", if you have time, it makes for interesting reading.
october 2012, was the 332nd month in a row of increased temperatures, sustaining temperatures above the recorded averages. February, 1985 was the last month on record that was below average for temperature,
And yho have a historical Basis for this?
the state of the climate report is a status report of the climate. issued every month.
for whatever we have been told, for the past few decades, there does appear to be a lot of people that have not been entirely honest about the actual evidence of global warming.