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Subscribe to RSSEven though you know the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot aren't good, you probably bought a ticket (or a few dozen of them) anyway.
But just how bad are the odds of any single ticket winning the big prize? 1 in 175,223,510, to be precise -- less than the odds of someone becoming president of the United States or being born with an extra finger or toe.
Here are 11 things -- some good, some not so good -- more likely to happen than your numbers coming up gold:
1. The next time you rush across the street as the light is about to change, keep in mind it's much likelier you'll die as a pedestrian than win the jackpot: 1 in 701, according to the National Safety Council.
Julio Cortez / AP
A U.S. flag waves in the wind as pedestrians cross the street in Newark, N.J.
2. Think your perfect 3-point shot makes you a shoo-in for the Dallas Mavericks? The odds of being drafted to play in the NBA after college if you're a high school senior basketball player are a slim 1 in 6,864,000, according to The Sport Digest, still better than Powerball odds.
Charles Rex Arbogast / AP
Harrison Barnes, left, from North Carolina, talks with reporters during a gathering of top prospects for the NBA basketball pre-draft combine earlier this year in Chicago.
3. Afraid to fly? Then skip to the next bullet point, because the odds of dying in air and space transport incidents are 1 in 7,178.
Kirsty Wigglesworth / AP
A British airways plane flies over residential rooftops as it comes in to land at Heathrow Airport in London.
4. If you haven't yet bought a ticket because you thought the odds of you winning the prize are as slim as the chances of dating Brad Pitt -- not so fast. According to the Book of Odds, the odds of being a movie star are 1 in 1,505,000. Reeling one in... that one's up to you, but becoming a movie star first can't hurt.
Matt Sayles / AP
Actress Anne Hathaway arrives before the 83rd Academy Awards on Sunday, Feb. 27, 2011, in the Hollywood section of Los Angeles.
5. It's (frighteningly much) likelier you'll die getting struck by lightning than win the Powerball jackpot: 1 in 134,906, according to the National Safety Council.
Andy Tullis / AP file
In a June 28, 2011 photo, a blast of lightning bolts shoot down towards Bend Ore. during a storm.
6. The next time you're having a picnic in the great outdoors, watch out for buzzing insects, because the odds of dying from a hornet, wasp or bee sting are 1 in 79,842, according to the National Safety Council.
Pat Wellenbach / AP file
Bees come and go from a bee hive in West Bath, Maine on Monday, April 30, 2012.
7. If you gasped upon seeing Honey Boo Boo's niece's duplicate thumb on national television, you'll probably be even more surprised to find out that polydactyly is not a rare condition. The odds of being born with extra fingers or toes are 1 in 500.
China Daily via Reuters file
An x-ray picture shows the hands of a six-year-old boy who has 15 fingers (the small nub on one of the fingers is the 15th) and 16 toes at a hospital in Shenyang, Liaoning.
8. Your odds of becoming a U.S. president are 1 in 10 million, according to this article. Mitt Romney obviously found those odds attractive enough.
Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images file
President Barack Obama celebrates after delivering his acceptance speech ion Chicago on November 7, 2012.
9. There's a 1 in 11.5 million chance you'll get attacked by a shark, according to the U.S. Lifesaving Association, but there's no word on how the odds play out during Shark Week.
Michael Fernandez / AP
This July 2011 photo shows a shark warning sign along the Surf Beach near Lompoc, Calif. in Santa Barbara County.
10. One in 12,500 amateur golfers will make a hole in one on a par 3 hole.
Stuart Franklin / Getty Images file
Tom Watson of the United States celebrates after his hole in one at the sixth hole during the second round of The 140th Open Championship at Royal St George's on July 15, 2011 in Sandwich, England.
11. Before you get too discouraged, keep in mind that the odds of winning at least some kind of Powerball prize -- any prize, even $4 -- are not too shabby: 1 in 31.85. But you still might be better off working on your jump shot. At least that will get you some exercise.
Erik S. Lesser / EPA
Jimmie Callahan of Pell City, Alabama, uses the lucky numbers from a Chinese restaurant fortune cookie to play the Powerball multi-state lottery at a retailer near the Alabama state line in Tallapoosa, Georgia.
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Follow US news from NBCNews.com on Twitter and Facebook
Leave a Comment:
"Odds are slim"?
Tell us something we don't know.
Even if you don't win the powerball, there is a better chance you'll win something. Heck, even if I win enough to break even, I'm doing okay.
Even just a 'free ticket' means you get a few more days to imagine what you'd do.. :)
(and one of my sons was born with 12 fingers. they weren't connected well, so they got removed before he got into exploring toddler mode)
I think my odds are better winning powerball than receiving health care that won't bankrupt my entire family.
So I played today, It's my only chance to afford and be able to see a doctor without losing the roof over my head.
I haven't done the math, but logically speaking, there's no way that the odds of becoming a U.S. president is as high as 1 in 10 million. On average, an American citizen will live through 18 different presidential terms. Even if we assume that no one is ever re-elected, that still means you'd have to have a population of 180 million or less during that span to justify a 1 in 10 million chance. There are currently over 300 million people in the country and 6 billion people on the planet.
Carolyn,
".....Heck, even if I win enough to break even, I'm doing okay."
You will never never never "break even."
In fact, per the article you will only win $4 dollars for every $63.70 you invest.
That is a net loss of $59.70.
Keep Dreaming....
Killian, did you factor in that only US citizens over 35 with no criminal record can be pres. Add in the fact that as you get older, you are less and less likely to win an election, and the numbers might make more sense.
I'm going to go work on my jump shot.
There is only a 30 year window from age 35 to 65. (The most likely years someone would be president) Start with the 300 million people in the US and subtract all women (There has never been a woman president), children, people under 35 and people over 65.
Now, you pretty much have to be a millionaire to even run for President so we are only in the top 3% of people. Take all of that into consideration and during the 30 years the top 3% are even eligible there can only be 7.5 different presidents. (During your particular window) i.e. You can't run for President when you are 5. Now, someone always wins a second term so I am going to subtract 2 to make it 5.5 different presidents during the time any particular person is eligible.
I am 45 and even though I have lived through 8 presidents, so far I would have only been eligible to be president through the last two. I will have up to 3 more cycles to be eligible. (Thus 5.5)
Based on that, I put the odds of any particular person in the United States becoming President 1 in 54,545,454
The odds stated in this article are rubbish.
Smoking is bad for you.
Odds of wasting time reading this article, 1 in 1.
RR, you forgot to factor in natural born citizen. This country has a large naturalized population that is not eligible to be President. Of course, if you are factoring out women just because there has never been a woman president (and not because they are ineligible) then you have to factor out Asians, Arabs, Jews, Latinos, and Native Americans on the same grounds. You also have to exclude everyone less than 50% Caucasian because there has never been a President who wasn't at least half Caucasian. That makes the odds a little different, doesn't it? Starting to look a tad high.
Odds mean something to populations, and nothing to individuals.
The rare odds of being eaten by a shark are meaningless to the person who is eaten by a shark.
There is also selection bias... the odds of becoming a movie star when you have no interest in doing any activity that would put you on the path to becoming a movie star must be very low.
You odds of winning the lottery if you don't play are zero. If you do play, almost not different than zero. Thus, it doesn't really matter if you play once, twice, 10 times, 100. Those odds are still all almost zero. So the real trick is to play the lottery, but not to bother playing it too much. Individuals do win, and they probably don't much care that the odds were against them.
Such a negativity news column. I understand the reality of the situation, but in the end most sensible adults whom purchase lotto tickets simply do it as a grasp of hope to achieve the American dream with no real expectation to win. So I pose the question; why write a column on whats more likely to happen than winning to lotto, instead of a column that is positive and meaningful to society?
Reminds me of that "Simpsons" episode where Homer decided to play. Marge told him the odds of winning were something like 10 million to 1, whereupon Homer held up a big double fistful of tickets and said, "Wrong! 10 million to fifty!"
Someone is going to win. I might as well throw my $2 hat into the ring.
Chances of winning are ZERO if you don't buy a ticket.........
RR123
There is only a 30 year window from age 35 to 65. (The most likely years someone would be president) Start with the 300 million people in the US and subtract all women (There has never been a woman president), children, people under 35 and people over 65.
Now, you pretty much have to be a millionaire to even run for President so we are only in the top 3% of people. Take all of that into consideration and during the 30 years the top 3% are even eligible there can only be 7.5 different presidents. (During your particular window) i.e. You can't run for President when you are 5. Now, someone always wins a second term so I am going to subtract 2 to make it 5.5 different presidents during the time any particular person is eligible.
I am 45 and even though I have lived through 8 presidents, so far I would have only been eligible to be president through the last two. I will have up to 3 more cycles to be eligible. (Thus 5.5)
Based on that, I put the odds of any particular person in the United States becoming President 1 in 54,545,454
The odds stated in this article are rubbish.
----RR123, did you sleep through stats class? You cannot go about figuring odds based on age(saying 65 is too old) or gender(females) and net worth(only millionaires. While these points may hold some validity and pass the smell test, they cannot in any way be factored into your configuration of the odds of being president. A woman COULD be president. Presidents have been older then 65 at election day. (REAGAN????????). Also, lack of personal wealth could still be overcome. You need to go reconfigure your rant. Idiot.
Note: That figure of 1 in 10m is still BS
At $2/ticket you can assure yourself a winning ticket buying all possible combinations for a mere $350.5 million. As long as no one else wins too, you make out great. Not only will you get the jackpot, but you will also have 34 $1million winners, not to mention thousands of $10,000 winners, tens of thousands of $100 winners and more small winners than you can count.
The trouble is you'll need to have a small company to go through all the tickets. And then there is the possibility that several lucky suckers will be out there to split your jackpot with you.
As the value of the jackpot exceeds the cost of all possible combinations, the odds of a net gain with investments in the tens of millions improve. If you have millions to burn, you have to figure that some may take a chance. For $10.2 million you can get all the standard 5 ball combinations. If you randomly distribute the Powerball equally among all the tickets, your odds of the jackpot are 1 in 35, plus you are guaranteed a $1 million winner plus a lot of smaller ones. For the pot to have gone so high, so quickly, that suggests a whole lot of tickets being purchased. You have to wonder if there might be a big investor or two dumping some big cash on this.
True. The chances of a Powerball win are very, very slim. However.....
1. You cannot be struck by lightening if you don't go outside in the storm.
2. You cannot be attacked by a shark if you don't get into the water.
3. You cannot become a movie star if you do don't apply for roles.
4. You cannot become President if you don't run for office.
etc., etc.
You cannot win the Powerball if you don't play the game. So, buy those lottery tickets, and with the very best of luck to you.
It is more likely that I would have read this entire article had the author used proper English, but not too much likelier...
The odds of dying in a plane crash are 1 in 7178? That would equate to several major plane crashes per day. I think there was a big miscalculation here, it would be more like 1 in 700,000.
What are the odds of winning something like a lotto twice? And yet it has happened more than once.
Well here is a bright side. I am more likely to win the lotto than getting a bj from my wife.
I don't know where these stats came from, but if that many people died in plane crashes, we'd all be walking cross country. Think they need to check their math and stats on a lot of these "odds" they are spouting.
But, as we have seen, eventually, someone will win. For that one person who does, the odds were 1:1.
"...the odds were 1:1."
Um, no.
For the person who wins, the odds are exactly the same as everyone else.
Just because your flipped a coin and it came up heads doesn't contravene the fact that there was a 1 in 2 probability of the event happening.
ChitownMatt prove NC is wrong
Russ,
The probability of winning equals the number of individual and uniquely numbered tickets purchased divided by the number total possible outcomes.
NC's comment demonstrates a basic misunderstanding of the mathematical concept of probability.
Hey it's only $2. Big deal! Why not take a chance.
That's right somebody will win! Maybe you! Good luck
Somebody's going to win, might as well be me....
Actually, for the person who wins it, the odds are the same as everyone else.
Lotteries are a tax on people who are bad at math.
In this case, it's actually mathematically correct to purcahse a lotto ticket:
The chances of winning are 1 in 175 million. A ticket costs $2 and the jackpot is $550 million. We can express the mathematical expectation of buying a ticket as follows:
(Payout price)*(Chances of winning) + (Ticket Price * Chances of losing) = expectation
($550,000,000 * (1/175,000,000)) + (-$2 * (174,999,999/175,000,000)) = $1
So in this case, you can actually expect to make around $1 for every lotto ticket you buy in the long term. (Basically as long as the odds remain the same, as long as the payout is over $350M it's mathematically correct to play) But obviously this calculation doesn't take into account taxes =(
Actually, there is never a mathematical reason to play the lottery... you aren't taking into account the odds of splitting the pot.
Or nobody winning and the pot gets bigger. Which is how it got to the level it is at in the first place.
@ Killian Jones: as I understand your formula, it tells us (given the numbers you have plugged in) that over the long run, you would expect the $2 investment to be returned along with a $1 profit.
There are a few other things at play, though. First, the $550 million number being tossed around is the total of annuity payments over a long period of time. If you take a lump sum, you only get, I believe, 65% of the stated figure, and then under current federal tax rates, you pay a 35% maximum marginal tax rate. (Obviously, most of such a huge windfall would be taxed at the maximum rate, so in my re-do of your calculation, I just used 35%).
Taking these into account, the current jackpot plugged into the formula produces a (minus) 0.67. It doesn't reach break-even (0.00) until the stated jackpot is $825 million (which would produce an after-tax lump sum of just over $350 million).
@ Aaron Taggart: If I'm not mistaken, the odds of two tickets having the winning number is 1/(175 million x 175 million), which won't change the outcome of the calculation very much.
@ Enough: Actually, Killian's formula does take into account the odds of nobody winning. Nobody winning = you didn't win.
The odds are that good? I am oing down to the gas station to spend my life savings right now!!!
Makes no difference what the odds are..sooner or later some person/persons will win it!
No ticket no chance!
What's with the negative content NBCNews.com??? Your first article was about being miserable if you win. Eeesh, lighten up.
I think i can handle that kind of misery. Never having to work again or worry about the mortgage, bring on the misery.
"it's much likelier that you'll die as a pedestrian that win the jackpot"... I think the odds that nbcnews ever publishes an entirely grammatically correct article is lower than my chances of ending today as a half-billioniare.
All these are wonderful statistics but without much meaning. THE POINT IS SOMEONE (or several), YES SOMEONE, WILL EVENTUALLY BEAT ALL THESE ODDS AND WIN IT!! Thats why we play it since we all believe why can't that someone be me!
The odds of having multiple winners would be much higher than 1:175,000,000 yet it happens quite often. Someone will win - those odds are pretty good. Go buy a ticket, just don't walk from the airport, across the street in a lighting storm to the store!
You can't win if you don't play. Let the insanity commence.
Odds of winning are 1:175+ million with one ticket, and still 1:88+ million if you buy two tickets, but they are 1:0 if you don't buy a ticket at all!
You are failing to calculate the odds of FINDING the winning ticket in the trash...
Or, having the winning ticket float into your window on a breeze...
Or, having the winning ticket float into your sick grandmother's window just before she passes away and leaves the winning ticket to you in her will...
For all practical purposes those odds are pretty much the same as winning...., so save yourself $2.
Picking out discarded tickets and going for second chance prizes seems like better way to go. Just don't do it at the store where you pick them up. They will try to claim it as their own.
I thought the odds were 50-50!
Either you win... or you don't.
There is usually multiple winners in these jackpots. So much for statistics.
Uhhh, no.
Hey, if Obama's dumb ass got elected TWICE, I am the next millionaire baby!
Obama got elected and 300 million people in the US all lost....
Waahh, waaah, Romney didn't win! Aren't you guys done bellyaching yet?
LOL! They're still butt hurt. Actually, I think the OP meant to say if Bush's dumb ass got elected twice....
I haven't studied statistics since Ronald Reagan was president, so somebody correct me if I fall off the tracks here.
If the jackpot (now $550 million) is more than twice the odds of winning (1 in 175 million), then isn't it perfectly rational (or at least not demonstrably irrational) to spend $2 for that chance?
A confounding factor is the possibility that more than one person will hold a winning ticket, but that has to be a vanishingly small possibility, right?
Another confounding factor is that the winner (even if only one ticket wins) won't go home tomorrow with $550 million in his or her bank account: it will be a considerably smaller amount (the lump-sum payout is smaller than the sum of all of the annuity payments, which is what I think the $550 million figure actually is, and then, of course, there are taxes).
Once a jackpot reaches over $423 million it becomes a positive Estimated-Value play to buy a ticket, at any point below that playing is essentially mathematically-irrational.
@ LitterHater: If you look at my discussion with Killian Jones above, and taking into account the new $2 price of a "play," plus the lump sum discount, and taxes, the number I calculate is roughly double your $423 million figure. I wonder if you forgot to account for the new ticket price?
Shut up and take my money!
Your odds are zero I have the only winning ticket.
There's only 14 fingers in that picture, not 15.
At least someone can count. The author sure can't!
I thought the same thing, and I was counting on fingers, so I knew I was right!
There are 15. Right hand, far left finger has an additional growth on it. If it grows a nail, it's a finger in my book.
lol! They apparently made this addition since my comment. I don't consider that tiny piece of bone a finger.
Sure you can count, but at least the rest of us are literate and can read the caption explaining the 15th technical finger. ;)
EDIT: Ahh, if they edited it before you posted that comment you are forgiven. :P I would have counted 14 too without it.
Am I the only one wondering what the pollution level was in the place in China where this multi-digited boy was born?
They are watching us. Or our comments at least.. Yeah I wouldn't have seen the nub either..
Kristy, it makes no difference whether you consider it a finger or not. It still counts.
But the ROI is 275,000,000%
no it's not you nome, it's around half of that in terms of the money that you'll actually receieve... don't try to influence people with sensational nonsense like that.
Alright Hater. Thanks for clarifying, Captain Obvious.
Hold a grudge much?
no i just care about the facts unlike you. And it's not Captain Obvious anymore I recieved an honorable discharge but you wouldn't know the difference
But you know your chances of winning by NOT buying a ticket is comparable to dividing by zero: not happening and impossible. When you buy a ticket, your chances of winning are pretty slim, maybe borderline impossible (but not) and the odds are very likely not in your favor (it's pretty much fact, but people cling onto hope, Lady Luck and God I guess), but it's still there and there WILL be a winner eventually.
I mean, people who throw their entire life savings at it, spend more than they can afford, or buy batches of these tickets to thinking they'll win are just ridiculous, but it doesn't hurt to try, have fun and dream a little dream.
You won't win if you don't play.
Actually, I figure I've won more than you. I still have all the money I could have spent on lottery tickets. ;)
Different strokes for different folks, I guess. I just hate that half the time the people I see buying lottery tickets really need to be spending their money on something more essential...
Are you kidding me? This trivia is THE story of the hour? This is THE big news in the world? If not, why does it command the highest possition on the site?
Give us news!
why can't you just be happy that there's no big tragedies that have happened today? no news is good news a lot of the time no matter how bored you are
That's where you're wrong, Hater.... there are things going on today, NBCNews just doesn't put them out there. They keep silent on a number of subject while they blow other subjects out of proportion. This article is the same.
I already died from a bee sting (but the doctors were able to revive me) so I guess I got that out of the way and so winning the Powerball should be a piece of cake ha. Just kidding.
Do you also happen to be a polydactyl, plane crash surviving, NBA star? You should definitely play the Powerball if you are.
Uh, you didn't actually die or the doc couldn't have revived you. Once you actually die, you stay dead.
Close, but no cigar. Too bad!
jpoochoo-1527514 actually you can die and be revived. Ever heard of people flat-lining on an operating table and then doctors using a defibrillator to restart the heart....they were technically dead and were brought back to life.
"Whoo-hoo-hoo, look who knows so much. It just so happens that your friend here is only MOSTLY dead. There's a big difference between mostly dead and all dead."
Compliments of The Princess Bride. LOL. No real relevance here, just flashed back to the movie.