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Subscribe to RSSThe calendar says December, but no one east of the Rockies is singing "Baby It's Cold Outside" -- most of the U.S. is enjoying unseasonably warm weather. NBC's Stephanie Gosk reports.
A warm winter, a record warm spring, a record hot July and a warmer than average autumn combined to make it even more likely that 2012 will go down as the warmest year in the contiguous United States on record, the federal government reported Thursday.
Just how likely?
"For 2012 not to be record warm, December would have to be unprecedented," Jake Crouch, a scientist at the National Climatic Data Center, told NBC News. "December temperatures would need to be more than 1 degree F colder than the coldest December on record, which occurred in 1983."
Based on past numbers, he added, "the odds of that occurring are less than 0.3 percent."
In other words, he said, "2012 has a greater than 99.7 percent chance of being record warm." That's up from Crouch's odds just last month of 90 percent.
January-November was already the warmest first 11 months of any year in records that go back to 1895, according to data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the center. The average national temperature through November was 57.1 degrees F.
The year has had a string of warm events, Crouch noted. "We had our fourth warmest winter (2011/2012) on record, our warmest spring, a very hot summer with the hottest month on record for the nation (July 2012), and a warmer than average autumn," he said.
"The warm winter and spring were associated with an unusually northern track of the jet stream, which kept cold Arctic air out of the contiguous United States," he added. "The early start to spring was a precursor to the summer drought. The large size of the summer drought was associated with a large area of the country experiencing a very hot summer. Those conditions continued into much of the fall season."
"When you put these local and regional factors on top of a warming trend for the contiguous United States and the globe," he said, "the result has been the warmest year on record for the Lower 48."
If 2012 does go down as the warmest year on record in the U.S. it would depose 1998, which averaged 54.3 degrees F.
Related: Arctic 'Report Card' lists worsening warming signals
Related: Snow, cold missing from much of US
Globally, 2012 is likely to be among the top 10 warmest on record, the U.N. World Meteorological Organization said last month.
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Out of all the BS from both sides of the issue , The thing I am loving is them saying that the way it has been on the east coast is going to be the NEW NORM ?
IMO - DC and some others out there DESERVE IT !
Kinda had the same thought!
The cards for human amplified climate change are already played, for the most part. Just read 'em and weep. However, once again, for all the assorted warblers of "Wish Physics", let's go over the action of methane, H2O, CO2 as to the source of relative potency as a green house gas.
The effectiveness of the various green house gases to trap heat even in small concentrations arises from the fact that they selectively intercept disjoint regions of the solar spectrum.
Because the Sun is hotter (5525K) than the Earth (300K), the incoming (black body) radiation energy is strongly concentrated in visible light. Visible light is visible because if you are a successful organism evolving photo-receptors for this planet, then you will win if you can see where the illumination is strongest. Now because the Earth is far cooler than the Sun, when the Earth cools its (black body} radiation energy is strongly concentrated in infra-red light. "Green house gas" molecules have a great affinity for the capture of infra-red light, so large chunks of the outgoing radiative energy are now stopped in the green house gas. If this heat was only kept in the green house gas, there would not be much of an effect on our heat balance. If you imagine that the heat capacity of only the green house gas stored the captured heat, then for sure that wouldn't amount to squat, but that picture is completely false.
The heat captured by the green house gas molecule, is then shared by collisions with all the other gases in the air. That process is not reversible directly, and the loss of heat back into space depends on the quasi black body radiative transfer from the atmosphere as a whole. Since CO2 is such a strong absorber in spectral regions (10.2 - 11 µm) different from H2O and since the H2O concentration is largely fixed by the general thermal equilibrium of air and water on the planet, the CO2 and also CH4 species are the sensitive drivers of net heat balance. Encroaching on the only spectral window left to let the heat escape at night. CO2 chews in from the long wavelength side, while CH4 closes down the short wavelength side (7 - 8 µm). Burping vast quantities of CH4 means added absorption in a bad part of the spectrum with lots of leverage to close the cooling window!
As usual the common Wish Physics arguments, pushed by Oil Shills like the Koch crowd, just fail, nobody in the professional climate science community is lying to you. The situation is very similar to the actions of those unscrupulous folks who took (and likely still take) the tobacco companies money to lie to us about lung cancer.
The common pride of ignorance among climate science deniers is the real lie here, it only serves to perpetuate the problem and to dilute everyone's courage to examine the proper extent to which we should try and mitigate the AGW problem.
For those with an Oil Shill agenda, the science is "hard to accept" because the solutions will diminish fossil fuel profit margins, at least in the short term, which is all they care about. Even James Mountain ("of ignorance?") Inhofe, the vocal denier fool of the Senate, recently admitted that he was "on your side of this issue" until he learned the cost of remediation. As if the validity of the science depended on that!
Great! You just explain how wind is created!
Ever get in a bus full of people, it gets hot real quick. too many people on the planet now...7 billion is crazy, no need to save the planet, it can save itself..
That's like putting a torch in the ocean and saying it will get warmer!!!
well, I can see why this discussion was completely left out of the 2012 race, considering how irrelevant it is
Jooo,
Why bother to bring it up. All you have to do is let the republicans commit suicide (Which they are in the process of doing, one at a time. DeMint was an excellent start.), and then Obama can walk the energy bill through the senate and the house.
To the victor the spoils.
Oh, so obama is NOW going to change the Climate and SAVE the planet..WOW..With THAT much power, looks like he could atleast tell the TRUTH about Benghazie..
When the video comes out of him walking on water and curing the sick and blind with the mere touch of his mighty hand, be sure to call me ,ENDRUST, I'd like to see..
Cant even have a discussion on the motherfriggin weather/climate, without someone making it political..I think we're going to have to import people from Pakistain so that there will be some smart people in America again..
If You Amplify the Frequency, The Structure of Matter Will Change! This is what is going on in our Solar System as we speak . The answer in is the Sky . Global Warming is not because of Man ,the cycle of our Solar System is winding down . Look at what has been going on in the Center of the Milky Way. Think of the Big picture (The Wave Affect ) Its on its Way .........
Your talking about billion year time scales. That doesn't affect climate change on the scale of our lives.
The real truth is Nibirus is coming closer and the Sumerians will come back for their Gold!!!
We live in the conscious state of false pretense of the universe that is no longer existing. The stars we see are dead but the subconscious is the truth of reality that allows us to travel through the dimensions of existence of the true Universe. Universal Intelligence is the true ruler of existing.
Just add Physics and stir. H+
The ice caps are the air-conditioning system for our planet. Greenhouse gases trap the heat and our planet is forced to rely on the weather that is generated by the difference in temperature of the poles and warmer air from the equatorial regions. Cold water produced at the poles sink and move across our oceans depths and drive the currents that regulate ocean temperatures. Cold air moves south in the fall and winter cooling our land masses while ocean temperatures regulate the temperature of the air above it and aid in regulating our seasons. As greater amounts of greenhouse gasses trap heat our polar regions are shrinking. this means smaller areas of ice and smaller and weaker cold fronts to cool the land masses during fall and winter and as well as shorter falls, winters and springs with longer summers. this also means less cold water to supply our oceans which in turn means weaker ocean currents affecting habitats for sea creatures and sources for seafood. What happens when the currents disappear? The water gets stagnate and the acidity rises in ocean water. What happens when the ice is gone? The same thing that happens when the ice melts in a glass of water. the water gets to hot to support life.
No!!! It's all about day and night, tilt, spin and magnetic field. If your cup of water has no light it will freeze and never melt. It's about balance and harmony. We don't control the universe. The universe controls us. We will never control the life of mother earth no matter how hard we try.
Good old Terra Firma has always been subject to those rules, but the change is very slow otherwise none of us would exist today! It would take at least 10,000 years for the Earth to change drastically from what we know of it now. By then our progeny will have adapted.
And as soon as a big enough volcanic eruption expells enough dust into the Atmosphere, then the record hot weather will all go away..We might just then start a new mini "ice age" and all the critics and scientists{espically Al gore} will be happy again..
There are just too many people on the planet.
Lee,
Absolutely. We only need a couple of million. The rest are redundant.
Overpopulation is destroying what is left of the biosphere very rapidly.
Not that there is too many people. But too many selfish people on this planet!!
"There are just too many people on the planet."
Feel free to jump off.
"Not that there is too many people. But too many selfish people on this planet!!
Plain old greedy is more like it.
I would buy into the hype but a few years ago we had that crazy winner.
Mabye vineyards will pop up in England, like they did in the 12 century as a result of greedy scribes burning the midnight oil.
We're all gonna die! Everyone stick your head between your legs and at the count of three kiss your ass goodbye!
If you believe this global warming crap you should'nt own a car or use any form of transportation.
expand your tiny pea brain of mind
FTW, let it burn baby burn.
Perhaps the problem is just too many people on our planet? But good old Earth has certainly gone through a lot of changes since it's creation. Global warming is indeed a natural phenomenum, and it is indeed true that humans have spewed a lot of garbage into the atmosphere over the years! But then so have volcanos. I see a lot of postings here by obvious Liberals (the same people who cannot understand putting people back to work would bring in far more more tax revenues than raising taxes on those they consider rich) War, Famine, Disease, and Disaster are the true Four Horsemen, and they present exactly the same danger to the human species as they do to all living things, and we all, humans, germs, monkeys, horses, pine trees, et al will adapt or perish as we have always done! On 12/21/2012 the current Mayan calender ends and a new one begins. Perhaps the oceans will rise, perhaps New Yawk city and Florida will be flooded, but whatever happens will happen, and there is not one thing that we could have done, can do, or should do that would prevent it! Perhaps we should all focus on things we can control to make our own lives better and not things we cannot control to graciously benefit all humanity? And why don't you Liberals grow your hair long, forego bathing, and develope your own version of slang? That's the way your Hippy forebearers coped.
I live in WI... last Sunday was 61 degrees... I hung my Christmas lights in a t-shirt! By now... in WI... I should have shoveled at least twice... not a lick of snow... first chance... a small one, Monday...
Don't get me wrong the warmer weather is awesome... just not normal... last winter was the same way.
Kind of a kick in the pants to the greed mongers of big oil... small heat bills! Karma taking care of business... to those who have contributed greatly to climate change. HA!
Who Cares?, there is NOTHING you can do about it, nothing, so why worry about what you have no control over, The Government, The President, Global Warming, you have absolutly no say in any of those subjects so save yourself an ulcer and stop careing, I did long ago and am living quite comfortably on my retirement pension, life is good.
If we all do small things everyday to respect the earth... we can turn things around... the good earth... you take care of it... it will take care of you... I hope I never become as negative as you!
Imagine.....remember the bank bailout?...if we would have took that 700 billion or so bucks and divided it up amongst our 50 states ...14 billion each and told the states to build factories for solar panel, wind turbines and electric cars and basically give them to the public what it would have done for creating jobs, the economy and energy independence ....the leap forward it would have made in addressing global warming, the leadership it would have shown the world.
Love warm weather. Screw polar bears, global warming BS and NBC
where to begin? wow!
Hurricane isaac was the first of a new order of hurricane, it was so large, in its atmospheric disturbance, that it could bareley develop as it travelled across the wide open expanse of the gulf of mexico. 44 inches of rain in some places? wow! pretty darned amazing.
Sandy was the second storm, of this new order, huge in its size, and indescriminate in its path. the destruction value is still being counted.
what if there were storms like these every ten days or so, maybe for just one season, figure two hundred days, lets say twenty storms, after the first few, the response would be legitimate, but after ten, twelve, or fourteen such storms, the response would be somewhat muted. there would be no help available from anywhere because there would be so many places disrupted and decimated, there would be no assistance for elsewhere available.
two or three 250 mph hurricanes sweep across florida, north carolina and the northeast, a week apart, then some gulf disturbances develop into some ferocious storms that redistribute the contents of the area over a wide area, when the body count goes into the hundreds of thousands, the deniers will be singing a new song.