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  • Recommended: Rebirth after the big storm: How one small town dug out, spruced up and lived on
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  • 13
    May
    2013
    7:29pm, EDT

    Feds: 500 fewer firefighters to face West's heightened risk this summer

    Firefighters try to protect homes during the second day of the Springs Fire in Ventura County, Calif., an May 3.

    WASHINGTON - Shrinking budgets mean fewer firefighters will be available this summer even as unusually dry weather has increased the risk of fire in much of the West, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack warned Monday.


    Follow @NBCNewsUS

    "As a result of sequester and across-the-board cuts we will have about 500 fewer firefighters at the Forest Service than we would otherwise have," said Vilsack.

    Cuts known as sequestration are forcing government agencies to reduce spending. They went into effect on March 1 after a gridlocked Congress failed to resolve fiscal fights and find an alternative to the sequestration.

    The Forest Service relied on 10,500 firefighters during last year's fire season.


    With 48 percent of the continental United States under moderate to exceptional drought conditions and an insect blight having weakened western forests, the risk of fire is high as summer approaches, said Vilsack, who oversees the Forest Service.

    "That is a prescription for very serious conditions," he said.

    Vilsack spoke with Interior Department Secretary Sally Jewell in a conference call organized from the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.

    Uncommonly dry forests in Oregon, Idaho, Montana and Washington state are full of woody fuel, officials said on the call.

    California, too, is expected to be hard-hit. Nearly 850 wildfires had flared up in the state through the end of last month, far more than usual during the first four months of the year, officials say.

    The Springs fire that burned 28,000 acres in Southern California and threatened some 4,000 homes came dangerously close to Rick Mecagni's house last weekend, but he refused to evacuate. Equipped with hoses and a fire suit, Mecagni says his home was designed with wildfires in mind. From patio furniture to dinner plates, nearly everything is concrete. NBC's Kim Baldonado reports.     

    Vilsack and Jewell said the persistently hot, dry weather in some parts of the country was a reminder of the challenge that climate change poses.

    "The twelve hottest years on record have been in the last fifteen years and that has been particularly true in the West," Jewell said.

    Heavy rains have spared eastern states from serious fires so far, said Jeremy Sullens of the fire center, "but it is a different story out West where you have had severe drought conditions for quite some time now."

    About 70,000 communities are situated on the fringes of wilderness across the country and so are particularly vulnerable, officials said.

    More terrain was scorched by fires last year than at any time since 1960, Vilsack said, and this summer is likely to be comparable.

    -- Reuters

    Related story: 'Long, hot, incendiary summer': Early wildfires bode ill for California



    59 comments

    Welcome the conservative vision for America. = Fire?, You're on your own. Not my problem. Firefighters? We don't need no stinking firefighters...

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    Explore related topics: weather, environment, wildfire, west, climate, forest-service, firefighters
  • Updated
    29
    Mar
    2013
    8:32am, EDT

    Washington island landslide may date back 11,000 years

    AP Photo / Ted S. Warren

    An aerial photo shows before and after images of a landslide near Coupeville, Wash., on Whidbey Island, Wednesday, March 27, 2013.

    By Alastair Jamieson, Staff writer, NBC News

    A 1500-foot-deep landslide that rumbled down a scenic Washington state island shoreline early Wednesday is part of an ongoing geological movement that may date back 11,000 years, according to a preliminary report.

    The dawn slide shifted the equivalent of 40,000 dump-truck loads of soil on Whidbey Island, located about 50 miles outside of Seattle.

    It washed a road away, wiped out power lines and water mains, and plunged one home off the island's crumbling bluff, while threatening or cutting off access to 34 others.

    An early report by the Washington State Department of Natural Resources Division of Geology & Earth Resources, published late Thursday [PDF link], said the movement was “a small portion of a much larger landslide complex, approximately 1.5 miles long, that was prehistoric and may date back as far as 11,000 years.”

    Ted S. Warren / AP

    An aerial photo shows a landslide near Coupeville, Wash. on Whidbey Island, Wednesday.

    The slide displaced approximately 5.3 million square feet, or about 200,000 cubic yards of earth, the report said.

    More homes could be lost as the ground continues to shift, officials have told residents.

    “The chance of another catastrophic movement is low, but possible,” it said in its "Ear to the Ground" blog about the incident.

    "I used to say 'in a million years we'll have waterfront property,' and now I can say 100 years or tomorrow. It's unbelievable," resident Nancy Skullerud told NBC affiliate KING-5 news in Seattle.

    The Whidbey Island landslide has residents nervous as several homes sit precariously on the edge. Some of the evacuation orders were lifted late Wednesday but it's still dangerous for more than a dozen homeowners to return. NBC's Miguel Almaguer reports.

    “It’s taken a while to soak it in to realize that life changes in five minutes,” Skullerud said. “Mother Nature always wins.”

    It could be months before some residents have full access to their homes following the landslide, firefighters on Whidbey Island said Thursday, reported KING-5. Four homes were "yellow-tagged," the affiliate reported, meaning residents were allowed limited access to them.

    A Red Cross relief center was set up earlier in the week for people forced to evacuate. 

    In Western Washington, the majority of landslides are triggered during fall and winter after storms dump large amounts of rain or snow. Landslides are relatively common in the area, but one of this magnitude is rare.

    NBC's Elizabeth Chuck contributed to this report.

    This story was originally published on Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:32 AM EDT

    81 comments

    Um, the two top photos don't match...what are we supposed to compare there?

    Show more
    Explore related topics: northwest, washington, life, environment, seattle, climate, us-news, featured, updated, king5, landslip
  • 24
    Feb
    2013
    1:53pm, EST

    Hotter, wetter climate slashes labor capacity by 10 percent: study

    Mark Webb / The Herald Dispatch / AP, file

    In this Thursday, July 21, 2011 photo, Patrick Nelson wipes the sweat from his face while working on a project for Huntington Community Gardens as temperatures reach over 90 degrees in Huntington, W. Va.

    By Deborah Zabarenko, Reuters

    WASHINGTON — Earth's increasingly hot, wet climate has cut the amount of work people can do in the worst heat by about 10 percent in the past six decades, and that loss in labor capacity could double by mid-century, U.S. government scientists reported on Sunday.

    Because warmer air can hold more moisture than cooler air, there's more absolute humidity in the atmosphere now than there used to be. And as anyone who has sweltered through a hot, muggy summer knows, it's more stressful to work through hot months when the humidity is high.

    To figure out the stress of working in hotter, wetter conditions, experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration looked at military and industrial guidelines already in place for heat stress, and set those guidelines against climate projections for how hot and humid it's likely to get over the next century.

    Their findings were stark: "We project that heat stress-related labor capacity losses will double globally by 2050 with a warming climate," said lead author John Dunne of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton.

    Work capability is already down to 90 percent during the most hot and humid periods, Dunne and his co-authors wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change. Using a middle-of-the-road projection of future temperature and humidity, they estimate that could drop to 80 percent by 2050.

    A more extreme scenario of future global warming, which estimated a temperature rise of 10.8 degrees F, would make it difficult to work in the hottest months in many parts of the world, Dunne said at a telephone briefing.

    Labor capacity would be all but eliminated in the lower Mississippi Valley and most of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains would be exposed to heat stress "beyond anything experienced in the world today," he said.

    Bahrain-on-the-Hudson?

    Under this scenario, heat stress in New York City would exceed that of present-day Bahrain, while in Bahrain, the heat and humidity could cause hyperthermia - potentially dangerous overheating - even in sleeping people who were not working at all.

    Humans are endothermic creatures, which means they give off heat. If they can't get rid of it faster than they create it, they go into hyperthermia. Typically, humans cool off by doing less heat-producing activity, but it may get so hot and humid that even a sleeping person wouldn't be able to dissipate heat fast enough.

    "This planet will start experiencing heat stress that's unlike anything experienced today," said Ronald Stouffer, a co-author of the study.

    The only way to retain labor capacity, Dunne said, is to limit global warming to less than 5 degrees F.

    Global average temperature has risen by about 1.2 degrees F compared to pre-industrial times. It is likely to rise another 1.8 degrees F by mid-century, Dunne said.

    The way some workers already adapt to heat stress - taking a siesta during the hottest hours of the day, working outdoor jobs like construction at night when temperatures drop or ceasing work entirely during periods of peak heat and humidity — could migrate to places where heat stress is increasing.

    The U.S. West Coast and Northern Europe are likely to be two of the regions that will be affected last by the trend toward more hot and humid climate, the scientists said.

    Part of the issue is how well-adapted certain regions are to extreme heat stress, Dunne said.

    As an example, he noted that some 70,000 people were killed during a disastrous 2003 heat wave in Europe, where heat stress was highly unusual. However, the same kind of stress was normal for a place like India, where a similar heat wave killed 3,000.

    "It's very regionally dependent and highly determined by adaptation," Dunne said.

    41 comments

    I was wiping sweat 60 years ago because it was summertime and hot and still wipe today if im working and its summertime and 90 degrees....I bet people were doing the same thing 500 years ago ...it has to be global warming...LOL

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    Explore related topics: heat, labor, climate
  • 5
    Feb
    2013
    5:55pm, EST

    Climate change shaking up forest management, federal report says

    Steven Meister / Mt. Taylor Hotshots via Reuters

    Burned terrain in the Gila National Forest, New Mexico, is seen in a photo supplied by the United States Forest Service on May 30. The Whitewater-Baldy Complex fire was the largest fire ever in New Mexico, burning about 300,000 acres.

    By Jeff Barnard, The Associated Press

    GRANTS PASS, Ore. -- Big changes are in store for the nation's forests as global warming increases wildfires and insect infestations, and generates more frequent floods and droughts, the U.S. Department of Agriculture warns in a new report.


    Follow @NBCNewsUS

    The study released Tuesday is part of the National Climate Assessment and will serve as a roadmap for managing national forests across the country in coming years.

    It says the area burned by wildfires is expected to at least double over the next 25 years, and insect infestations often will affect more land per year than fires.


    Dave Cleaves, climate adviser to the chief of the U.S. Forest Service, said climate change has become the primary driver for managing national forests, because it poses a major threat to their ability to store carbon and provide clean water and wildlife habitat.

    "One of the big findings of this report is we are in the process of managing multiple risks to the forest," Cleaves said on a conference call on the report. "Climate revs up those stressors and couples them. We have to do a much better job of applying climate smartness ... to how we do forestry."

    The federal government has spent about $1 billion a year in recent years combating wildfires. Last year was the warmest on record in the lower 48 states and saw 9.2 million acres burned, the third-highest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website.

    Insect infestations widely blamed on warming temperatures have killed tens of millions of acres of trees. 

    © 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

    22 comments

    Earth's climate has always been changing, but the changes occurred naturally over millions of years. Animals had time to evolve and adapt with the changes. However, the glorious human industry complex changes things. The rapid changes to the forests, water, and atmosphere (in regards to global warmi …

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    Explore related topics: weather, forests, climate, forest-service, forest-fires
  • 1
    Feb
    2013
    3:42pm, EST

    'Mountain devil': Feds want to list wolverine as endangered species, stop trapping, citing climate change

    Steve Kroschel / US Fish and Wildlife via Reuters

    A wolverine is seen in a 2009 photo.

    By Matthew Brown, The Associated Press

    BILLINGS, Mont. -- The tenacious wolverine, a snow-loving carnivore sometimes called the "mountain devil," could soon join the list of species threatened by climate change — a dubious distinction putting it in the ranks of the polar bear and several other animals the government says will lose crucial habitat as temperatures rise.


    Follow @NBCNewsUS

    Federal wildlife officials Friday proposed Endangered Species Act protections for the wolverine in the Lower 48 states. That's a step twice denied under the Bush administration, then delayed in 2010 when the Obama administration said other imperiled species had priority.

    It likely means an end to trapping the animals for their fur outside Alaska.

    But federal officials said they won't use the animal's status as a means to regulate greenhouse gases blamed in climate change. And other human activities — from snowmobiling and ski resorts to timber harvest and — would not be curtailed because they do not appear to be significant threats to wolverines, officials said.


    There are an estimated 250 to 300 wolverines in the contiguous U.S., clustered in small, isolated groups primarily in the Northern Rockies of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming and Washington. Larger populations persist in Alaska and Canada.

    Maxing out at 40 pounds and tough enough to stand up to grizzly bears, the animals will be no match for anticipated declines in deep mountain snows female wolverines need to establish dens and raise their young, scientists said.

    In some areas, such as central Idaho, suitable habitat could disappear entirely, officials said.

    Yet because those losses could take decades to unfold, federal wildlife officials said there's still time to bolster the population, including by reintroducing them to the high mountains of Colorado.

    "This is a species there is still time to do something about," said Mike Thabault, ecological services director for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's mountain-prairie region.

    Wildlife advocates, who sued to force the government to act on the issue, said the animal's plight should be used by the Obama administration to leverage tighter restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions.

    As with the polar bear, the government is sidestepping that thorny proposition with the wolverine, and said in Friday's proposal that listing the animal as threatened "will not regulate greenhouse gas emissions."

    Thabault said the agency would be on tenuous scientific grounds if it tried to draw a link between specific emission sources and impacts on wolverines.

    Advocates expressed disappointment, with Noah Greenwald from the Center for Biological Diversity saying the administration "should not be exempting greenhouse gas emissions from the Endangered Species Act."

    A Washington, D.C., attorney, John Martin, who represented the energy industry during litigation over polar bears, said he expects no change in the administration's policy against using endangered wildlife to regulate emissions.

    Friday's proposal also allows Colorado's wildlife agency to reintroduce an experimental population of wolverines that eventually could spill into neighboring portions of New Mexico and Wyoming.

    It would shut down wolverine trapping in Montana, the only one of the Lower 48 states where the practice is still allowed an annual quota of five animals.

    This year's trapping season was blocked by a state court order, but Montana officials hoped to restore trapping next year.

    Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks spokesman Ron Aasheim said the state will review the federal proposal and had not settled on a response.

    Once found throughout the Rocky Mountains and in California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, wolverines were wiped out across most of the U.S. by the 1930s due to unregulated trapping and poisoning campaigns, said Bob Inman, a wolverine researcher with the Wildlife Conservation Society.

    In the decades since, they have largely recovered in the Northern Rockies but not in other parts of their historical range.

    While reintroducing the animals further south might seem counterintuitive, Inman said Colorado's abundance of 14,000-foot mountains would make it well suited as a refuge for the animals as warmer temperatures set in at lower elevations.

    Only one wolverine currently inhabits the state, a male that wandered down several years ago from northern Wyoming's Teton Range, about 500 miles away. Inman said Colorado has enough high-mountain territory to support up to 100 more of the animals.

    "That's like a 30 percent increase in their population size," he said.

    Any reintroduction into Colorado would require approval from state wildlife commissioners and the Legislature, Colorado Parks and Wildlife spokesman Randy Hampton said.

    Representatives of the state's ski and agriculture industries in the past have raised concerns that bringing wolverines back could hurt their industries. Hampton said no decision has been made and it could take years to work out all the details.

    Other areas where wolverines once roamed also could serve as future refuges.

    Those include portions of Utah, Oregon's Cascade Range, Wyoming's Big Horn Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, said Shawn Sartorius, a biologist with the Fish and Wildlife Service based in Montana.

     

     

     

    Related story: Wolverines' winter food caches at risk to warming

    © 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

    105 comments

    I'm not going to go all political. 250-300 seems like not a lot of wolverines left....one thing for sure, that is one bad a$$ looking mammal.

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  • 28
    Jan
    2013
    5:14am, EST

    Ice, snow threaten Monday commute across Northeast

    View more videos at: http://nbcphiladelphia.com.

    By Alastair Jamieson, Staff writer, NBC News

    A winter storm that brought ice and travel disruption to the Midwest will move across the Northeast Monday, threatening a messy commute for millions.

    A mixture of freezing rain and sleet is expected along the I-95 corridor with snow in some areas, prompting some schools and employers to announce a later start to the working week.

    It follows a weekend of disruption in the Midwest, with many flights in and out of Chicago, Minneapolis and St. Louis being grounded by icy runways on Sunday, according to Reuters.

    Hundreds of churches across Iowa called off Sunday services as sidewalks were turned to sheets of ice by the storm that covered the region in about a half-inch of ice, Reuters said.

    That system will bring ice and snow from New England to Virginia and in northern Michigan on Monday, and rain from southern Michigan to the lower Mississippi Valley, according to The Weather Channel:

    Snowfall of up to 3 inches is possible from central and northern New York through central and northern New England. It will change to sleet and freezing rain in southern New York, northeastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

    Morning sleet and freezing rain becomes afternoon rain in western Virginia, central and southeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware.

    In New York City, snow should arrive in the late morning, NBCNewYork.com reported. A winter weather advisory will be in effect north and west of the city Monday morning into Tuesday morning. As Monday wears on, warm air is expected to cause the snow to change over to rain along the coast by the afternoon. Major accumulations are not likely. 

    A winter weather advisory will be in effect across the Washington, D.C., area between 5 a.m. and 10 a.m. ET Monday, NBCWashington.com reported.

    School districts - including the District of Columbia - announced late openings and several major employers allowed employees to come in late, NBCWashington.com added. The federal government will open at noon.

    Icy weather across parts of the Midwest affected roads and airports, particularly at O'Hare in Chicago, where nearly 200 flights were canceled. The Weather Channel's Mike Seidel reports.

    Philadelphia is braced for light snow during the morning commute and ice during the evening rush, NBC10.com reported. "Temperatures will remain below freezing north and west of I-95 so significant ice or sleet accumulation is possible there during the day,” it warned.

    Meanwhile, a storm bringing rain to the southwest Monday was expected to move into the southern Plains and southern half of the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.

    Damaging wind gusts, hail and tornadoes are possible from eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas to central and southern Illinois, western Kentucky, western Tennessee, northwest Mississippi and northern Louisiana Tuesday.

    Weather.com, Reuters, NBCNewYork.com, NBC10.com and NBCWashington.com contributed to this report.

    30 comments

    This is a blatant invasion from Canada! Why is Obama not dealing with this???

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  • 13
    Jan
    2013
    7:21am, EST

    Sleet, snow bring travel warning for icy Chicago area

    View more videos at: http://nbcchicago.com.

    By Alexandra Clark and Cheryll Scott, NBCChicago.com

    Freezing rain, sleet and snow are set to bring hazardous conditions to roads across Chicago and surrounding areas Sunday morning.

    The National Weather Service issued a winter weather advisory that remains in effect until 9 a.m. local time (10 a.m. ET).

    Related: California hit by big freeze

    Rain, sleet, and snow are all forecast for Chicago as well as East Central Illinois and Northwest Indiana, bringing one to three inches of sleet and snow across Northwest suburbs.

    Track the storm on the NBCChicago.com Interactive Radar

    Extreme caution is advised for travel.

    Last week, Chicago broke a 72-year-old record for most days without an inch of snowfall. The previous record was 320 days.

    22 comments

    Wisconsin got the freezing sleet and snow. they were off by a 100 or so miles. Trudat: it's not global warming, it is called Climate Change. And yes, it is happening. East Coast having heat wave, west coast sub-freezing.

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    Explore related topics: weather, chicago, winter, life, storm, climate, us-news, featured, nbcchicago
  • 6
    Jan
    2013
    1:02pm, EST

    'Horrible' sea level rise of more than 3 feet plausible by 2100, experts say

    Alister Doyle / Reuters file

    Experts increasingly recognize that ice melting in Antarctica could push up sea levels dramatically higher in coming decades.

    By John Roach, NBC News

    Melting glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland may push up global sea levels more than 3 feet by the end of this century, according to a scientific poll of experts that brings a degree of clarity to a murky and controversial slice of climate science. 

    Such a rise in the seas would displace millions of people from low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, swamp atolls in the Pacific Ocean, cause dikes in Holland to fail, and cost coastal mega-cities from New York to Tokyo billions of dollars for construction of sea walls and other infrastructure to combat the tides.

    "The consequences are horrible," Jonathan Bamber, a glaciologist at the University of Bristol and a co-author of the study published Jan. 6 in the journal Nature Climate Change, told NBC News. 


    Estimating how much sea levels will rise from ice sheet melting is one of the more challenging aspects of climate science. Some evidence suggests recent accelerated melting is related to changes in ocean and atmospheric temperature, though natural variability may play an important role.

    In addition, glaciers respond to external forces such as warmer temperatures in different ways, even when they are located right next to each other. As a result, there is tremendous uncertainty in the scientific community over how the melting will affect sea levels over the next century.

    Bamber and colleague Willy Aspinall attempted to find clarity in the chaos using a scientific polling technique common in fields such as predicting earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but until now not applied to climate science.

    The pair sent 26 of the world's leading glaciologists a series of questions about the behavior of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. About half replied to the survey in 2010. The respondents were polled again in 2012 to assess the robustness of their answers.

    Bamber said this type of approach is "a lot more than an opinion poll." The experts were handpicked to get a representative perspective of world leaders from the ice sheet modeling and observational fields. "We analyzed the results in a very systematic, rigorous, and statistically robust way," he added.

    The median estimate from the experts is that the melting ice sheets will contribute 1 foot (29 centimeters) to sea level rise by the year 2100 with a 5 percent chance their contribution could exceed 2.8 feet (84 centimeters). When the effect of thermal expansion (water expands as it warms) is taken into account, the high-end estimate is more than 3 feet (1 meter).

    The estimates are higher than the controversial figures in the 2007 report  from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of up to 23 inches (59 centimeters) and higher than the unpublished estimates being prepared for the next IPCC report, said Bamber, who is a review editor for that document and has seen the estimates.

    The discrepancy likely reflects added weight given to recent studies that indicate glacier melt has accelerated in recent years in Antarctica and Greenland, and that the West Antarctic ice sheet could partially collapse by the end of this century.

    "The numbers we are getting out of our elicitation reflect the fact that the world leaders in this field are now cognizant of the fact that the ice sheets are quite responsive and, in particular, there is a potential for them to make a really quite dramatic contribution," Bamber said.

    The greatest drama would be a more than 3-foot rise in sea levels from the combined effect of melting ice and thermal expansion, which the study indicates has a 1 in 20 chance of occurring. 

    How much of this drama can be attributed to human burning of fossil fuels, the study indicates, remains murky. “There is really no consensus amongst the experts we approached,” Bamber said. “That’s something that we in the scientific community need to address as a matter of urgency.”

    John Roach is a contributing writer for NBC News Digital. To learn more about him, check out his website.

    1079 comments

    So what? So long as we can continue to buy massive, gas-guzzling SUV's, enjoy the fruits of our wars for "cheap oil" and breed ourselves into extinction, who cares about trivial matters like this?

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  • 4
    Jan
    2013
    7:21pm, EST

    Drought still grips Corn Belt -- dry winter adds to farmers' fears

    Saul Loeb / AFP - Getty Images

    Corn stalks damaged by drought are seen on a farm near Oakland City, Ind., on Aug. 15.

     

    By Christine Stebbins, Reuters

    CHICAGO -- The U.S. Corn Belt - the world's top grain region - is seeing another dry winter after the worst summer drought in half a century, reducing prospects for a bumper summer harvest that would help ease global food prices, crop and climate experts said.


    Follow @NBCNewsUS

    "We are still concerned about getting the leftovers out of the way from the drought of 2012. At this time we would not anticipate a national corn yield above the trend," said Iowa State University climatologist Elwynn Taylor, who has studied crop production for decades. "Rather, we would expect a fourth consecutive year of below-trend crop, not as far below as in 2012 but still not up to par."

    The 2012 drought locked two-thirds of the U.S. continental land mass in severe drought last summer, cutting production of the biggest crop, corn, by 27 percent from early season estimates.

    The U.S. supplies more than half of world exports of corn, which is the top livestock feed for meat and dairy animals, the main feedstock for ethanol production, and the leading ingredient in dozens of food and industrial products from vegetable oil to sweeteners, paints and plastics. As such, its price is a key for food inflation and its supply outlook is closely watched by Federal Reserve policymakers, bankers, farm suppliers and food processors.


    On Thursday, the government's weekly U.S. Drought Monitor said that 42.05 percent of the continental United States remained in severe to exceptional drought, down from 42.45 percent the previous week. Parts of the Corn Belt east of the Mississippi River and parts of the central Plains received snow over the last week, providing some much-needed moisture. But the snow did not offer much drought relief, with little improvement expected over the winter, according to the report.

    Taylor and other crop specialists said continued lack of snow and rain was the biggest threat in the western Corn Belt - Minnesota and South Dakota south to Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas. Those states produce about half the U.S. crop.

    Taylor said in December it would take about 16 inches of precipitation by April 1 to recharge moisture in Corn Belt soils, up from the usual 12 inches that farmers look for over the winter.

    Worst drought in decades hits Brazil's Northeast

    The moisture is vital to spur adequate corn, soybean and spring wheat plant roots, which extend several feet down to tap into subsoil moisture. Persistent drought over more than a year in many areas meant plant roots drove down 8 or 9 feet last year in search of moisture, compared with the usual 5 feet.

    "Most agricultural soils hold about 2 inches of water available to crops per foot of soil," Taylor said. "With most of the moisture gone that means it will take 16 inches of water soaking into the soil and in some places 18 to fully replenish it."

    A long shot
    Jim Angel, state climatologist in Illinois, said the state's conditions had improved slightly but have a long way to go before spring. Some areas of Illinois would need up to 21 inches of precipitation to catch up.

    "The 2012 drought is not over yet. There are several areas of the state that are 8 to 12 inches below normal in rainfall, some places even more. You don't have to totally erase the deficits to be out of the drought but you have to come pretty close," Angel said. "In wintertime it's tough because we don't get that much precipitation. It's a long shot at this point."

    Illinois saw its second hottest year on record in 2012, averaging 55.5 degrees, or 3.3 degrees above normal, and the 10th driest. The state's subsoil moisture is still rated 67 percent short to very short, according to the Illinois crop update issued this week.

    Nebraska, the third largest corn producing state, has 77 percent of the state remaining in exceptional drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor.

    Louisiana cemeteries sinking, washing away

    "The concern is we just went through a 14-15 month stretch of incredibly dry weather in most locations in the state, excluding the southeast corner. For the vast majority of locations outside that area we were looking at 40 to 50 percent of annual precipitation that fell in 2012, and that does not include the exceptionally dry fall of 2011," said Al Dutcher, state climatologist for Nebraska.

    To eliminate the soil moisture deficits over the next three months, Dutcher said central Nebraska needs 300 percent of normal precipitation while northeast and western Nebraska need 500 to 700 percent of normal precipitation this winter.

    "One key issue for us since we are not getting a massive amount of moisture is to keep a protective snow layer across the northern and central Plains so we don't break dormancy as early as it did last year," Dutcher said. "Last year we were putting leaves on trees in early March, typically that doesn't happen until early April. That additional month of water use compounded the problem with the drought as we got into mid-summer."

    Prayers for El Nino?
    Scientists are hoping they will have a better indication by early February of the seasonal weather pattern, which depends on whether conditions turn to an El Nino or La Nina - global weather atmospheric anomalies based on the warming or cooling of an area of the southern Pacific Ocean that can dictate precipitation patterns in North America.

    El Nino, a warming of Pacific waters, often leads to wetter weather in the U.S. Midwest. La Nina, a cooling of the waters, can have the opposite effect.

    Climate experts say the El Nino/La Nina outlook is currently "neutral" based on data from the National Weather Service and other government forecasts.

    Video: Drought conditions dry out Mississippi River

    "We do not have any clear signal that's telling us whether it could be wetter or drier or near normal precipitation. That's the same for temperature," said John Eise, climate services program manager for the National Weather Service. "When you're looking out that far, going out a month or three months, it depends very strongly on whether we are in an El Nino or La Nina. Right now we are between the two."

    The next El Nino-La Nina outlook from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center will be released Jan. 10.

    Taylor said a return of La Nina, which the U.S. experienced in 2012, could be devastating: a return of abnormally high temperatures and diminished rains.

    Video: A promising sign for California’s water supply

    "We can be concerned with this dryness but we could have the same setup as 2001, 2003, 2007 that followed major drought years in western Nebraska where it turned exceptionally wet in the spring, reduced irrigation demands. We still carried a high hydrological drought, but agriculturally we were at yield trend or above trend," Dutcher said.

    For the moment, however, the worries remain. Freezing temperatures hitting much of the Midwest this week will prevent any moisture from permeating the soil.

    "Even if we got normal precipitation through the winter that would not necessarily take care of the drought west of the Mississippi River. It's pretty tough now," Eise said. 

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    46 comments

    This is not a trend. These are the new weather patterns caused by global warming and they are here to stay. It is surprising that climatologists and meteorologists are not bringing this to everyones attention. They themselves are probably hoping that the obvious isn't true. Droughts have natural …

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    Explore related topics: weather, drought, climate, corn-belt
  • 27
    Dec
    2012
    4:33pm, EST

    Winter storm dumps snow, rain on Northeast, snarls airline flights

    More than 2,000 flights have been canceled, and more than 200,000 customers are without power in several southern states as the impact of severe winter weather was felt across the nation. NBC's Eric Fisher reports.

    By Tracy Connor and Alastair Jamieson, NBC News

    A winter storm swept into the Northeast on Thursday, bringing up to 21 inches of snow, drenching rain – and a new round of travel headaches.


    Follow @NBCNewsUS

    By late afternoon, more than 1,000 flights had been canceled, and more than 8,000 were delayed, according to FlightStats.com, frustrating thousands of stranded passengers.

    At Philadelphia International Airport, assistant principal Tomorrow Jenkins was desperate to get to Orlando, Fla., where her high school’s band was slated to perform at a Rutgers University bowl game Friday.

    Her flight had been delayed and canceled, and she missed a connection. “I’m a little anxious,” she told NBCPhiladelphia.com at the airport, where dozens of flights were scrapped on Thursday.


    Passengers on a Southwest Airlines jet bound for Florida from Long Island faced an unexpected wait after the Boeing 737 went off the runway and got stuck in the grass. Federal Aviation Administration spokesman Jim Peters said officials were investigating if wet weather was a factor in the mishap, which caused no injuries.

    An American Airlines flight that landed safely in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night got stuck in snow for about two hours on the tarmac, The Associated Press reported. 

    The Dallas/Fort Worth Airport, where all flights had been grounded until Wednesday afternoon after the storm passed, still had two dozen cancellations on the board.

    It won't be a blockbuster snowfall, but most of the big cities in the Northeast will get one to three inches of snow. The Weather Channel's Chris Warren reports.

    Read more at weather.com

    A passenger who had been stuck on a plane at the gate there for three hours on Christmas night recorded an American Airlines pilot apologizing for the situation.

    “I've made more personal phone calls than I know what to do with,” the pilot said in an audio recording obtained by WFAA-TV.

    “I've spent my last quarter, to be honest with you. It's beyond reproach. I have no words to tell you... to tell you how sorry I am. This is way above our heads... by people that obviously, in my humble opinion, don't have a clue what they're doing,” said the pilot.

    The airline said in a statement that it "was obviously a very challenging day" and apologized for any inconvenience.

    The weather system, which developed just before Christmas, has already spawned twisters, high winds, icy roads, and record snowfall in the nation’s midsection, where it was blamed for a dozen deaths.

    The Weather Channel's Eric Fisher reports from Lewiston, Maine, where snow is rapidly accumulating. The winter storm, which traveled from Texas up through the Midwest, is threatening to dump up to 2 feet of snow on parts of the Northeast.

    On Thursday, it blanketed towns from Pennsylvania to Maine in white.

    Woodford, Vt., got socked with 21 inches of snow -- the highest total of the storm so far. In Edwards, N.Y., 16 inches fell. Coudersport, Pa., saw 15 inches; Windsor, Mass., got 13.4 inches; and Lebanon, Maine, had a foot, the National Weather Service reported.

    Where there wasn’t snow, there was rain. In New Jersey, flooding and high winds forced the closure of parts of Brick Township, local officials told the Weather Channel's Mike Seidel.

    Thursday brought mostly rain to New York City, Philadelphia and Boston, but that could change this weekend. The Weather Channel’s Tom Niziol said a new system could dump up to four inches of snow on the major Northeast cities.

    The Weather Channel's Michael Palmer and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    On one of the busiest travel days of the year, bad weather has forced airlines to cancel or delay flights. NBC's Katy Tur reports.

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    190 comments

    there is no such thing as cold...it is merely an absence of heat.....A. Einstein

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  • 1
    Nov
    2012
    7:26pm, EDT

    Climate issue heats up after Sandy

    MSNBC's Thomas Roberts talks to Chris Hayes, host of "Up with Chris Hayes" about the impact of Hurricane Sandy and talk of climate change.

    By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

    Follow @b0yle


    The climate change issue has been virtually a non-issue during the presidential campaign — but it's primed to take a higher profile after the elections, in part due to Hurricane Sandy's horrific aftermath. At least that's the view of Shawn Lawrence Otto, one of the founders of ScienceDebate.org and author of "Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science of America."

    Otto focused on climate politics during Wednesday night's installment of "Virtually Speaking Science," a talk show airing online and in the Second Life virtual world. You can hear an archived version of the hourlong program, hosted by yours truly, via the BlogTalkRadio archive or iTunes.

    Hurricane Sandy already has re-energized the debate over the global effects of escalating greenhouse-gas emissions.


    On one side, experts point to the fact that this season's warmer seas helped the storm keep up its strength as it moved northward, and that higher sea levels added to the strength of Sandy's storm surge. Such conditions are expected to be more common if current climate trends continue. On the other side, skeptics point out that Sandy's strength was in line with extreme storms of the past. For more on the back-and-forth over Sandy specifically, check out this posting by Columbia Journalism Review's Curtis Brainard and this one by Dot Earth's Andrew Revkin — and be sure to follow the Web links.

    Otto sides with those who believe Hurricane Sandy will bring the climate debate back into the spotlight.

    "I do think that, moving forward, it may be a watershed moment, so to speak," Otto told me on "Virtually Speaking Science." However, he acknowledged that the same claim could have been made for Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which didn't end up moving the dial appreciably on attitudes toward climate change.

    Hurricane Sandy may not make voters more amenable to cap-and-trade schemes or a carbon tax, but it's more likely to highlight the flip side of climate policy: how to adapt to potential impacts and encourage climate-conscious innovation. More people are talking about the cost vs. benefit of storm surge barriers for the New York metro area, for example. Insurers may add disincentives for coastal development, in anticipation of higher sea levels or more frequent extreme storms. The federal government may provide more support for energy technologies that cut back on greenhouse-gas emissions.

    That's basically GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney's strategy on the climate issue. In his response to ScienceDebate.org's questionnaire, he said he favored "robust government funding" for research into low-emission, high-efficiency industrial technologies. He maintained that this kind of "No Regrets" policy would benefit America "regardless of whether the risks of global warming materialize, and regardless of whether other nations take effective action."

    President Barack Obama, meanwhile, has long championed the development of renewable-energy technologies as a way to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, even if such efforts have occasionally gotten him into trouble. An example of that is the controversy over Solyndra, a solar-panel company that went bankrupt after receiving more than a half-billion dollars in government-backed loans.

    Otto speculates that Obama may have a freer hand to pursue climate initiatives if he wins a second term — and that post-Sandy reconstruction may serve as a rallying point for political allies.

    There's some evidence this is already coming to pass: Just today, New York City's independent mayor, Michael Bloomberg, cited the climate challenge and the lessons from the superstorm as reasons for endorsing Obama.

    "The devastation that Hurricane Sandy brought to New York City and much of the Northeast – in lost lives, lost homes and lost business – brought the stakes of Tuesday’s presidential election into sharp relief," Bloomberg wrote. "Our climate is changing. And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it might be – given this week's devastation – should compel all elected leaders to take immediate action."

    Bloomberg said Obama was taking major steps to reduce carbon emissions, while Romney abandoned "the very cap-and-trade program he once supported."

    The mayor's endorsement probably won't have much impact on the vote in New York, a state that's as solidly in Obama's column as any state could be. But does it hint at a major change in the political climate?

    For more food for thought, watch this archived video from a Capitol Hill debate between Obama surrogate Kevin Knobloch and Republican Mike Castle, who served two terms as Delaware governor and nine terms in Congress. The debate, titled "After Sandy: Climate Change, Science and the Next Four Years," was moderated by Otto and Climate Desk Live's Chris Mooney.

    Update for 8:30 p.m. ET: The Guardian's Suzanne Goldenberg sees deep significance in Bloomberg's endorsement, suggesting that it "turned climate change from liability into a potentially winning political issue in this presidential election," and may embolden Republicans who secretly support action on the climate issue to "come out of the closet." Do you agree? Feel free to weigh in with your comments below.

    Follow @CosmicLog

    More from 'Virtually Speaking Science':

    • Sean Carroll on what lies beyond the Higgs boson
    • Alan Stern on the Uwingu mystery space venture
    • George Djorgovski on the future of immersive virtual reality
    • JPL's Dave Beaty previews Curiosity's mission on Mars
    • SETI Institute's Seth Shostak about aliens and UFOs
    • Paul Doherty on solar eclipses and the transit of Venus
    • Veronica Ann Zabala-Aliberto on spaceflight and Yuri's Night
    • JPL's Dave Beaty on the search for life on Mars
    • Shawn Lawrence Otto on science and politics
    • Ig Nobel impresario Marc Abrahams on silly science
    • Rocket scientist Robert Zubrin on Mars exploration
    • Propulsion expert Marc Millis on interstellar spaceflight
    • Sean Carroll on the puzzling frontiers of physics
    • Rand Simberg on the private-enterprise vision for spaceflight
    • Martin Hoffert on the future of energy policy
    • George Djorgovski on science in virtual worlds
    • Alan Stern on suborbital research and NASA's mission to Pluto
    • Col. 'Coyote' Smith on the outlook for space solar power
    • Tim Pickens on rocket ventures and the Google Lunar X Prize

    "Virtually Speaking Science" is hosted in Second Life by the Caltech Virtual Astronomy Group. The Exploratorium's Paul Doherty will be my guest on Dec. 5 for a VSS program looking back at the year's astronomical highlights and looking ahead to 2013.

    Alan Boyle is NBCNews.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter and adding the Cosmic Log page to your Google+ presence. To keep up with Cosmic Log as well as NBCNews.com's other stories about science and space, sign up for the Tech & Science newsletter, delivered to your email in-box every weekday. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for new worlds.

    325 comments

    Yet another example that ignoring science gets people killed.

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    Explore related topics: politics, environment, science, climate, featured, sandy, virtually-speaking
  • 1
    Sep
    2012
    10:52am, EDT

    Fires, dry summer turn Montana into scorched, 'very brown landscape'

    Steve Digiovanna / Madison County via AP

    The 19 Mile wildfire in southwest Montana consumes a home on Wednesday.

    By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

    Winds and high temperatures were expected to create critical wildfire conditions this weekend in parts of Colorado, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Wyoming and nearly all of Montana -- where three new large fires started Friday, adding to the 100 square miles that have burned there in recent days.


    Follow @NBCNewsUS

    Crews are battling 10 uncontained fires in Montana, the worst of which is the 19 Mile wildfire. A dozen homes have been destroyed there and 125 more are threatened at that fire alone.

    Campers hoping to spend Labor Day weekend in popular spots were told to stay away due to the danger.

    The fires and dry summer have left much of Montana either scorched or brown.


    Billings has seen its driest summer on record, the National Weather Service's Billings office reported on its Facebook page, as well as its second warmest.

    It's also seen 47 days above 90 degrees, when the norm is 29 days.

    Watch video of some of the destruction caused by a wildfire this week near near Livingston, Mont.

    So far, at least, the city's water supply has stayed healthy.

    “We can be thankful that we’re a little sea of green in a very brown landscape,” Mike Rubich, a city water official, told the Billings Gazette.

    Incident Management Team / inciweb.org

    Land scorched by wildfires in Montana includes this patch behind the Lazy EL Ranch. The ranch was saved and that fire was fully contained on Friday.

    The Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation and the neighboring Crow Indian Reservation have seen the worst of the Montana fires this summer.

    The Cheyenne have lost 19 homes this summer, and seen 90 square miles of reservation burn, The Associated Press reported. The Crow have lost one home but have seen 150 square miles burn.

    Related: Families on reservation devastated by fires

    "Most of middle class America would be able to recover," Jennifer Perfater, tribal liaison for the American Red Cross of Montana, told The Associated Press. "But on the reservations here, you've got people who don't have homeowners insurance because they can't afford it. They've completely lost their homes."

    Across the U.S., this year has seen fewer total wildfires than average, but a much larger area burned.

    As of Friday, 7.6 million acres had burned since Jan. 1, well above the 5.9 million acre average for 2003-20012, the National Interagency Fire Center reported.

    The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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    73 comments

    I live in western Montana and some days you can barely see for all the smoke. This is a BAD year for fires here, with much much higher temps than we're used to.

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Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

Science editor at msnbc.com, author of "The Case for Pluto," winner of the National Academies Communication Award for Cosmic Log in 2008. Alan Boyle covers the physical sciences, anthropology, technological innovation and space science and exploration for msnbc.com. Check out Cosmic Log's archives by following the links below, and see Boyle's full biography at http://bit.ly/boyle-bio

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