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  • 4
    Nov
    2012
    6:30pm, EST

    Final national NBC/WSJ poll before Tuesday: Obama 48 percent, Romney 47 percent

    Jason Reed / Reuters

    President Barack Obama campaigns at McArthur High School in Hollywood, Fla. on Nov. 4, 2012.

    By Mark Murray, NBC News Senior Political Editor

    With just two days until Election Day, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are running neck and neck nationally, according to the final national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll before the election.

    Obama gets support from 48 percent of likely voters, while Romney gets 47 percent.

    Read the full poll here (.pdf)

    A new NBC poll should give both presidential campaigns reason to hope. Obama comes in at 48 percent; Romney at 47 percent. Taking Sandy into account, 80 percent in the Northeast said they approved of the president's handling of Superstorm Sandy. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

    In the NBC/WSJ poll released two weeks ago, the two candidates were deadlocked at 47 percent each.

    “This poll is reflecting a very, very close campaign nationally,” says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart.

    “It’s a dead heat,” Hart adds. “This election is going to be decided by turnout, turnout, turnout.”

    While both Obama and Romney are running virtually even in this national poll, a majority of surveys from the battleground states – especially in the crucial battlegrounds of Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin – show the president with a slight advantage.

    A new NBC poll indicates the presidential race is in a dead heat. Meanwhile, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may have given Obama a boost when he praised his leadership. NBC's Andrea Mitchell and David Gregory have more.

    Good news for Obama: Two-thirds approve of hurricane handling
    The NBC/WSJ poll – conducted Nov. 1-3 – contains good news for both Obama and Romney in the final days of the campaign.

    For Obama, 41 percent of likely voters say that what they have read, heard, and seen over the past couple of weeks have given them a  more favorable impression of president, compared to 40 percent who said it had given them a less favorable impression – which is up from his 38-to-43 percent score on this question two weeks ago.

    Read our memo on our 'likely voter' methodology (.pdf)

    Both presidential candidates have spent months fighting over nine battleground states, but as the race draws to a close the Romney campaign is trying to expand the battlefield to states that have been reliably blue in recent years. Is this opportunity or desperation? DNC Executive Director Patrick Gaspard discusses.

    Part of that more favorable impression is due to his handling of Hurricane Sandy, of which 67 percent of likely voters approve.

    By comparison, 45 percent of voters say they have say they have a less favorable impression of Romney from what they have read, heard and seen over the past couple of weeks, versus 40 percent who have a more favorable view.

    Yet two weeks ago – fresh off his debate performances – Romney’s score here was tied, 44 percent more favorable, and 44 percent less favorable.

    In the latest NBC News/ WSJ poll President Barack Obama has an eight point lead among women, however Mitt Romney has an seven point lead among men. Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., joins NBC's Andrea Mitchell to talk about the gender gap.

    Comparing 2012 to 2004
    In addition, Obama’s numbers in this poll look almost identical to George W. Bush’s in the final NBC/WSJ before the 2004 presidential election, which Bush ended up winning 51 percent to 48 percent.

    Obama’s approval rating among likely voters stands at 49 percent – exactly matching Bush’s 49 percent approval in the final 2004 NBC/WSJ poll.

    Forty-two percent say the country is headed in the right direction, versus 41 percent who said the same thing in late Oct. 2004.

    And the head-to-head score between Obama and Romney – 48 percent to 47 percent – is identical to what it was in the final NBC/WSJ poll before the 2004 election: Bush 48 percent, Democrat John Kerry 47 percent.

    “The comparisons between 2004 and 2012 are haunting,” McInturff says.

    Good news for Romney: Comfort level, the economy
    The good news for Romney in this national poll is that 53 percent of likely voters are comfortable with the idea of him as president, which ties Obama’s percentage on this question (although 39 percent are “very comfortable” with Obama versus 26 percent who are “very comfortable” with Romney).

    Also, Romney is ahead of Obama among independents, 47 percent to 40 percent.

    And the former Massachusetts governor leads Obama by five points on which candidate is better prepared to create jobs and grow the economy, 47 percent to 42 percent.

    However, a majority of voters in the survey – 52 percent – say the economy is recovering.

    The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Nov. 1-3 of 1,475 likely voters (including 443 cell phone-only respondents), and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.55 percentage points.

    1646 comments

    The President's lead is much larger in Maine, the whitest and oldest state, demographically, in the nation. Imagine if we had a Hispanic component? Nope, just us chilly, taciturn Yankee WASPS up here. And we like Obama. Angus King, moderate Independent candidate for the Senate, is also ahead double  …

    Show more
    Explore related topics: mitt-romney, barack-obama, polls, featured, first-read, decision-2012, appfeatured
  • 21
    Sep
    2012
    12:26pm, EDT

    For 1st time, gay marriage may win statewide vote

    Joel Page / AP

    Gay-marriage supporters gather Sept. 10, 2012, at a rally outside of City Hall in Portland, Maine.

    By Miranda Leitsinger, Staff Writer, NBC News

    Updated at 1:45 p.m. ET -- After losing some 30 ballots on same-sex marriage across the country over the past decade, advocates of lesbian and gay couples are encouraged by polls showing they have a good chance of finally logging their first victory in a statewide popular vote.

    Polls show majorities back same-sex marriage in Maryland, Washington and Maine, and they indicate a tight battle in Minnesota – the four states holding votes on the issue in November.


    Follow @mimileitsinger

    “We’re feeling positive. The reality is, we haven’t won a ballot measure on marriage yet,” said Sarah Warbelow, state legislative director for the Human Rights Campaign, an advocacy group for gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender rights. “I think it’s very reasonable and realistic to expect that we’ll win one or more of these ballot measures; certainly the polling suggests that all four are … a possibility.”

    Polling ahead of such ballots has not always accurately captured voters’ sentiment: In California in 2008, the same-sex marriage camp had a majority, though the ban on gay and lesbian marriage ultimately prevailed. In North Carolina, polls had predicted a closer race in the May ballot on the constitutional amendment (a 16-point difference, according to Public Policy Polling at the time), but the anti-gay marriage camp won by more than 20 points.

    “They’re doing what they’ve always done, taking their victory lap before their first victory,” said Brian Brown, president of the National Organization for Marriage, which on Thursday gave $250,000 to each of the four state campaigns opposed to same-sex marriage.

    “The poll numbers that they’re interpreting as good for them are actually not good for them,” he said Friday, though noting that Washington could be tough for his side.

    So far, the polls show support in the low-to-mid 50s for same-sex marriage:

    -- In Maine, 53 percent said they will vote to back the initiative to institute gay marriage, compared to 44 percent who are opposed, according to Public Policy Polling (PPP), a firm that works for Democratic candidates and progressive causes. The mid-September poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percent.

    -- In Maryland, 54 percent said they’ll back the state law that was passed by the legislature earlier this year, compared to 40 percent who are opposed, according to Hart Research Associates, which conducted the July 24-28 poll for Marylanders for Marriage Equality. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percent.

    -- In Minnesota, the vote was a virtual tie, according to Public Policy Polling’s Sept. 10-11 poll, which had 48 percent supporting the amendment to ban gay marriage, 47 percent opposed and 5 percent undecided. The poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. The margin of error for the overall survey was  plus or minus 3.4 percent.

    -- In Washington, 56 percent of voters think the law legalizing same-sex marriage should be upheld, while 38 percent think it should be overturned, and 6 percent are not sure, according to a Sept. 7-9 SurveyUSA poll for KING-5 News in Seattle. The margin of error was plus or minor 4.3 percent.


    Follow @NBCNewsUS

    Though the numbers appear to bode well for the same-sex marriage camp, they shouldn’t count on victory, Public Policy Polling said in its analysis of its Maine survey.

    Did Supreme Court justice tip hand on gay marriage?

    “Our experience in polling gay marriage is that if people say they’re undecided it usually means they’re opposed to it,” said Dean Debnam, the firm’s president. “Despite the 8 point lead for passage this should be seen as a very close race.”

    Gregory B. Lewis, a professor at Georgia State University who has researched public opinion on gay rights for nearly two decades, believes the same-sex marriage side could prevail in Maine and Washington, with Maryland and Minnesota too close to call.

    “Since 2004, we’re seeing a strong upward trend, about 2 percentage points a year -- more people are saying that they favor same-sex marriage than said so the year before” nationwide, said Lewis, who is chair of the Department of Public Management and Policy at Georgia State University.

    Part of the uptick has been due to young people who support same-sex marriage hitting vote age, but primarily it has been a matter of voters changing their minds, he said.

    Warbelow, of the HRC, said that even if people told pollsters one thing and voted another way, victory was within reach for her side.

    “The polling is much higher than it’s ever been,” she said. “We were not seeing these kinds of numbers in prior years.”

    “We’re hoping for all four, but even one will really change the conversation in the United States,” she added.

    Six states have same-sex marriage, led by Massachusetts in 2004, and followed by Connecticut, New York, Iowa, New Hampshire, Vermont plus the District of Columbia. A total of 38 states have either a state law or constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

    RELATED:

    Appeals court: Denying federal benefits to same-sex couples is unconstitutional
    Despite marriage progress, gay couples face big hurdles to parenthood
    Conservatives target Republicans who back gay marriage
    Same-sex couple fights to stop deportation, gay marriage ban
    Obama: 'I think same-sex couples should be able to get married'
    Prop 8 backers ask Supreme Court to review gay marriage ban
     

     

     

     

    3180 comments

    I live in New Hampshire and one thing I can tell you is that same sex marriage has not destroyed society or marital values here...not one bit.

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    Explore related topics: washington, marriage, gay, constitutional, minnesota, maryland, lesbian, maine, ban, polls, same-sex, amendment
  • 26
    Jun
    2012
    1:00pm, EDT

    NBC/WSJ poll: More would be pleased if health law ruled unconstitutional

    By NBC's Mark Murray

    With the U.S. Supreme Court set to decide on President Obama's health-care law on Thursday, more Americans say they would be pleased if the law is ruled unconstitutional than constitutional, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

    In the survey, 37 percent say they would be pleased if the Supreme Court finds the law unconstitutional, versus 22 percent who say they would be disappointed with that outcome.

    Yuri Gripas / Reuters

    A group of doctors protest against individual mandate in President Obama's health care reform in front of U.S. Supreme Court in Washington June 25.

    On the flip side, 28 percent say they would be pleased if the court rules the law is constitutional, compared with 35 percent who say they would be disappointed.

    But pluralities on both questions maintain they would have mixed feelings with either outcome, suggesting that opinion could change depending on how the Supreme Court ultimately decides on Thursday.

    What's more, if the law's individual mandate is found to be unconstitutional, 25 percent say that would hurt them and their families; 18 percent say it would help; and 55 percent say it wouldn't make a difference.

    Overall, 35 percent think the health-care law is a good idea, versus 41 percent who believe it's a bad idea -- numbers that have been essentially unchanged in the survey since it was signed into law in March 2010.

    The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted June 20-24 of 1,000 adults, and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- will be released today at 6:30 p.m.ET.

    2565 comments

    We shall see... On the other hand, 77% of Americans think we need some sort of HCR! Maybe now would be a good time for the GNOP to tell us what their plan contains on replacing it with - other then to DIE QUICKLY! American exceptional-ism my ass!

    Show more
    Explore related topics: health-care, supreme-court, polls, featured, decision-2012, mark-murray, appfeatured
  • 22
    May
    2012
    1:00pm, EDT

    NBC/WSJ poll: Obama's gay-marriage announcement a 'draw'

     

    By NBC's Mark Murray
    Follow @mmurraypolitics

     

    Two weeks after President Obama announced he supports gay marriage, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that his announcement -- politically -- looks to be a wash.

    Larry Downing / Reuters

    President Barack Obama gestures upon arriving at Joplin Regional Airport aboard Air Force One in Missouri.

    In the poll, a combined 17 percent say it makes them "much more likely" or "somewhat more likely" they will vote for him. That's compared with a combined 20 percent who say the announcement will make them more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, who opposes gay marriage.

    Perhaps more importantly, 62 percent say the president's support for gay marriage doesn't make a difference in their vote -- including 75 percent of independents, 76 percent of moderates, 81 percent of African Americans, and 65 percent of residents in the Midwest.

    "From my distance, it looks more like a voting draw than anything else," says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

    In addition, the NBC/WSJ poll finds that a majority -- 54 percent -- would support a law in their state making same-sex marriage legal. Twenty four percent would actively support such a law, while 30 percent would favor it but not actively support it.

    By comparison, a combined 40 percent say they would oppose such a law.

    Asked to reconcile this majority supporting gay marriage in their states with North Carolina recently voting to for an amendment defining marriage as only between a man and a woman, McInturff says the respondents in this poll are different than the types of people who would vote in that kind of election.

    The full NBC/WSJ poll -- conducted May 16-20 of 1,000 adults, with an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

    718 comments

    This is supposed to be a surprise? I wonder what happened to all of those black votes the President was assumed to lose... 54 percent -- would support a law in their state making same-sex marriage legal This is the most striking number from above - the homophobes are indeed a dying breed!

    Show more
    Explore related topics: polls, featured, first-read, decision-2012, appfeatured
  • 22
    Jun
    2010
    12:56pm, EDT

    Americans struggle to make sense of spill

    UPDATE 1:05 p.m.: Reuters has released details of its Ipsos poll. It indicates that 56 percent of Americans believe offshore drilling is still necessary. Looked at another way, it says, "69 percent have not changed their views on drilling despite the spill."

    _____

    A new round of polls this week show that even after nine weeks, Americans still haven't reached much of a consensus on the Gulf oil spill, except that BP is bad.

    A Gallup daily tracking report released last night show the public is still just about split on President Obama's handling of the response, with 44 percent approving his performance. That's basically unchanged from early June.

    A New York Times/CBS poll out today indicates that 49 percent of Americans oppose increasing offshore oil drilling, while 42 percent approve. But Reuters says it's about to report a poll it conducted with Ipsos North America that shows "a majority of Americans" still support offshore drilling on the U.S. coastline.

    Reuters gives no numbers yet, so we don't know how far apart the Ipsos and NYT/CBS polls are.

    One thing nearly everyone agrees on: Blame BP. Only 16 percent approve of BP's handling of the spill in the Gallup poll; it's in single digits in the Ipsos poll.

    We'll post details of the Ipsos poll once it and Reuters release the data.

    — Alex Johnson

    3 comments

    This is a no brainer. Renewable energy brings jobs, security for our country, not sending a billion dollars a day to the middle east. This is a no brainer=energy security, jobs here, quit sending a billion dollars a day to the mid-east. This is not about tree huggers it is about being practical.

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    Explore related topics: bp, politics, obama, polls, gulf-oil-spill

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